Smoking cessation and mortality trends among 118,000 Californians, 1960-1997. 1999

J E Enstrom, and C W Heath
School of Public Health and Jonsson Comprehensive Cancer Center, University of California, Los Angeles 90095-1772, USA.

We assessed the impact of smoking cessation on subsequent death rates among a cohort of 51,343 men and 66,751 women in California enrolled in late 1959 in the original American Cancer Society (ACS) Cancer Prevention Study (CPS I) and followed for 38 years. We compared the age-adjusted death rate, expressed as deaths per 1,000 person-years, among all subjects who smoked cigarettes in 1959 but who had largely quit as of 1997 with the death rate among never smokers over a 38-year period. The all causes death rate for males decreased from 20.67 during 1960-1969 to 18.68 during 1960-1997 for smokers and decreased from 10.51 to 9.46 for never smokers. The lung cancer death rate for males increased from 1.558 to 1.728 for smokers and increased from 0.127 to 0.133 for never smokers. The all causes death rate for females increased from 9.54 to 10.14 for smokers and decreased from 6.95 to 6.44 for never smokers. The lung cancer death rate for females increased greatly from 0.208 to 0.806 for smokers and increased from 0.094 to 0.116 for never smokers. These results indicate there has been no important decline in either the absolute or relative death rates from all causes and lung cancer for cigarette smokers as a whole compared with never smokers in this large cohort, in spite of a substantial degree of smoking cessation. While cessation clearly reduces the mortality risk among long-term former smokers, the population impact of cessation appears to be less than currently believed.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D008175 Lung Neoplasms Tumors or cancer of the LUNG. Cancer of Lung,Lung Cancer,Pulmonary Cancer,Pulmonary Neoplasms,Cancer of the Lung,Neoplasms, Lung,Neoplasms, Pulmonary,Cancer, Lung,Cancer, Pulmonary,Cancers, Lung,Cancers, Pulmonary,Lung Cancers,Lung Neoplasm,Neoplasm, Lung,Neoplasm, Pulmonary,Pulmonary Cancers,Pulmonary Neoplasm
D008297 Male Males
D008875 Middle Aged An adult aged 45 - 64 years. Middle Age
D009026 Mortality All deaths reported in a given population. CFR Case Fatality Rate,Crude Death Rate,Crude Mortality Rate,Death Rate,Age Specific Death Rate,Age-Specific Death Rate,Case Fatality Rate,Decline, Mortality,Determinants, Mortality,Differential Mortality,Excess Mortality,Mortality Decline,Mortality Determinants,Mortality Rate,Mortality, Differential,Mortality, Excess,Age-Specific Death Rates,Case Fatality Rates,Crude Death Rates,Crude Mortality Rates,Death Rate, Age-Specific,Death Rate, Crude,Death Rates,Determinant, Mortality,Differential Mortalities,Excess Mortalities,Mortalities,Mortality Declines,Mortality Determinant,Mortality Rate, Crude,Mortality Rates,Rate, Age-Specific Death,Rate, Case Fatality,Rate, Crude Death,Rate, Crude Mortality,Rate, Death,Rate, Mortality,Rates, Case Fatality
D011446 Prospective Studies Observation of a population for a sufficient number of persons over a sufficient number of years to generate incidence or mortality rates subsequent to the selection of the study group. Prospective Study,Studies, Prospective,Study, Prospective
D002140 California State bounded on the east by Nevada and Arizona, on the south by Mexico and the Pacific Ocean on the south and west, and on the north by Oregon.
D005260 Female Females
D005500 Follow-Up Studies Studies in which individuals or populations are followed to assess the outcome of exposures, procedures, or effects of a characteristic, e.g., occurrence of disease. Followup Studies,Follow Up Studies,Follow-Up Study,Followup Study,Studies, Follow-Up,Studies, Followup,Study, Follow-Up,Study, Followup
D006304 Health Status The level of health of the individual, group, or population as subjectively assessed by the individual or by more objective measures. General Health,General Health Level,General Health Status,Level of Health,Overall Health,Overall Health Status,General Health Levels,Health Level,Health Level, General,Health Levels,Health Status, General,Health Status, Overall,Health, General,Health, Overall,Level, General Health,Levels, General Health,Status, General Health,Status, Health,Status, Overall Health
D006801 Humans Members of the species Homo sapiens. Homo sapiens,Man (Taxonomy),Human,Man, Modern,Modern Man

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