Risk estimates for radiation-induced cancer--the epidemiological evidence. 2000

A M Kellerer
Radiobiological Institute, Ludwig Maximilians University, Munich, Germany. amk.sbi@lrz.uni-muenchen.de

The risk of low-dose radiation exposures has--for a variety of reasons--been highly politicised. This has led to a frequently exaggerated perception of the potential health effects, and to lasting public controversies. A balanced view requires a critical reassessment of the epidemiological basis of current assumptions. There is reliable quantitative information available on the increase of cancer rates due to moderate and high doses. This provides a firm basis for the derivation of probabilities of causation, e.g. after high radiation exposures. For small doses or dose rates, the situation is entirely different: potential increases of cancer rates remain hidden below the statistical fluctuations of normal rates, and the molecular mechanisms of cancerogenesis are not sufficiently well known to allow numerical predictions. Risk coefficients for radiation protection must, therefore, be based on the uncertain extrapolation of observations obtained at moderate or high doses. While extrapolation is arbitrary, it is, nevertheless, used and mostly with the conservative assumption of a linear dose dependence with no threshold (LNT model). All risk estimates are based on this hypothesis. They are, thus, virtual guidelines, rather than firm numbers. The observations on the A-bomb survivors are still the major source of information on the health effects of comparatively small radiation doses. A fairly direct inspection of the data shows that the solid cancer mortality data of the A-bomb survivors are equally consistent with linearity in dose and with reduced effectiveness at low doses. In the leukemia data a reduction is strongly indicated. With one notable exception -- leukemia after prenatal exposure--these observations are in line with a multitude of observations in groups of persons exposed for medical reasons. The low-dose effects of densely ionizing radiations--such as alpha-particles from radon decay products or high-energy neutrons--are a separate important issue. For neutrons, there is little epidemiological information. This has facilitated exaggerated claims of high neutron effects with reference to alleged dangers from transports of reactor fuel. However, in spite of limited information, it can be shown that the data from Hiroshima exclude the stated claims. New dosimetric information on neutrons may turn out to be highly informative with regard to an upper limit for the potential effects of neutrons and equally with regard to a reassessment--and a possible reduction--of risk estimates for gamma-rays.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D007564 Japan A country in eastern Asia, island chain between the North Pacific Ocean and the Sea of Japan, east of the Korean Peninsula. The capital is Tokyo. Bonin Islands
D009381 Neoplasms, Radiation-Induced Tumors, cancer or other neoplasms produced by exposure to ionizing or non-ionizing radiation. Radiation-Induced Cancer,Cancer, Radiation-Induced,Radiation-Induced Neoplasms,Cancer, Radiation Induced,Cancers, Radiation-Induced,Neoplasm, Radiation-Induced,Neoplasms, Radiation Induced,Radiation Induced Cancer,Radiation Induced Neoplasms,Radiation-Induced Cancers,Radiation-Induced Neoplasm
D009689 Nuclear Warfare Warfare involving the use of NUCLEAR WEAPONS. Atomic Warfare,Warfare, Atomic,Warfare, Nuclear
D001943 Breast Neoplasms Tumors or cancer of the human BREAST. Breast Cancer,Breast Tumors,Cancer of Breast,Breast Carcinoma,Cancer of the Breast,Human Mammary Carcinoma,Malignant Neoplasm of Breast,Malignant Tumor of Breast,Mammary Cancer,Mammary Carcinoma, Human,Mammary Neoplasm, Human,Mammary Neoplasms, Human,Neoplasms, Breast,Tumors, Breast,Breast Carcinomas,Breast Malignant Neoplasm,Breast Malignant Neoplasms,Breast Malignant Tumor,Breast Malignant Tumors,Breast Neoplasm,Breast Tumor,Cancer, Breast,Cancer, Mammary,Cancers, Mammary,Carcinoma, Breast,Carcinoma, Human Mammary,Carcinomas, Breast,Carcinomas, Human Mammary,Human Mammary Carcinomas,Human Mammary Neoplasm,Human Mammary Neoplasms,Mammary Cancers,Mammary Carcinomas, Human,Neoplasm, Breast,Neoplasm, Human Mammary,Neoplasms, Human Mammary,Tumor, Breast
D005260 Female Females
D006801 Humans Members of the species Homo sapiens. Homo sapiens,Man (Taxonomy),Human,Man, Modern,Modern Man
D012307 Risk Factors An aspect of personal behavior or lifestyle, environmental exposure, inborn or inherited characteristic, which, based on epidemiological evidence, is known to be associated with a health-related condition considered important to prevent. Health Correlates,Risk Factor Scores,Risk Scores,Social Risk Factors,Population at Risk,Populations at Risk,Correlates, Health,Factor, Risk,Factor, Social Risk,Factors, Social Risk,Risk Factor,Risk Factor Score,Risk Factor, Social,Risk Factors, Social,Risk Score,Score, Risk,Score, Risk Factor,Social Risk Factor

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