Biomaterial Database

Predicting the outcome of neonatal bacterial meningitis. 2000

G Klinger, and C N Chin, and J Beyene, and M Perlman

Division of Neonatology, Hospital for Sick Children, Toronto, Ontario, Canada.

OBJECTIVE To build predictive models of severe adverse outcome at various times in the course of neonatal bacterial meningitis. METHODS Retrospective cohort study with follow-up to a minimum age of 1 year of term and near-term infants, admitted between 1979 and 1998 to a regional tertiary care center. Predictors of adverse outcome detectable at 1 year of age (death or moderate or severe neurosensory impairment) were identified by univariate analysis. Independent predictors of adverse outcome were identified by multivariate analysis. Predictive tree models were constructed at 12, 24, 48, and 96 hours after admission and at discharge. RESULTS Of 101 infants admitted with definitive bacterial meningitis, 13 died and 17 had moderate or severe disability at 1 year of age. Outcomes are known for all patients, to 1 year of age. Twelve hours after admission the important predictors of adverse outcome were presence of seizures, presence of coma, use of inotropes, and leukopenia (sensitivity: 68%; specificity: 100%). At 96 hours the predictors were seizure duration of >72 hours, presence of coma, use of inotropes, and leukopenia (sensitivity: 88%; specificity: 99%). CONCLUSIONS Most infants at risk for adverse outcome can be identified within 12 hours of admission. Duration of seizures for >72 hours, presence of coma, use of inotropes, and leukopenia were the most important predictors of adverse outcome. Although these models have good predictive accuracy, they need to be validated in a contemporary cohort in large multicenter studies.

UI	MeSH Term	Description	Entries
D007231	Infant, Newborn	An infant during the first 28 days after birth.	Neonate,Newborns,Infants, Newborn,Neonates,Newborn,Newborn Infant,Newborn Infants
D008962	Models, Theoretical	Theoretical representations that simulate the behavior or activity of systems, processes, or phenomena. They include the use of mathematical equations, computers, and other electronic equipment.	Experimental Model,Experimental Models,Mathematical Model,Model, Experimental,Models (Theoretical),Models, Experimental,Models, Theoretic,Theoretical Study,Mathematical Models,Model (Theoretical),Model, Mathematical,Model, Theoretical,Models, Mathematical,Studies, Theoretical,Study, Theoretical,Theoretical Model,Theoretical Models,Theoretical Studies
D011379	Prognosis	A prediction of the probable outcome of a disease based on a individual's condition and the usual course of the disease as seen in similar situations.	Prognostic Factor,Prognostic Factors,Factor, Prognostic,Factors, Prognostic,Prognoses
D006801	Humans	Members of the species Homo sapiens.	Homo sapiens,Man (Taxonomy),Human,Man, Modern,Modern Man
D012307	Risk Factors	An aspect of personal behavior or lifestyle, environmental exposure, inborn or inherited characteristic, which, based on epidemiological evidence, is known to be associated with a health-related condition considered important to prevent.	Health Correlates,Risk Factor Scores,Risk Scores,Social Risk Factors,Population at Risk,Populations at Risk,Correlates, Health,Factor, Risk,Factor, Social Risk,Factors, Social Risk,Risk Factor,Risk Factor Score,Risk Factor, Social,Risk Factors, Social,Risk Score,Score, Risk,Score, Risk Factor,Social Risk Factor
D016019	Survival Analysis	A class of statistical procedures for estimating the survival function (function of time, starting with a population 100% well at a given time and providing the percentage of the population still well at later times). The survival analysis is then used for making inferences about the effects of treatments, prognostic factors, exposures, and other covariates on the function.	Analysis, Survival,Analyses, Survival,Survival Analyses
D016920	Meningitis, Bacterial	Bacterial infections of the leptomeninges and subarachnoid space, frequently involving the cerebral cortex, cranial nerves, cerebral blood vessels, spinal cord, and nerve roots.	Bacterial Meningitis,Bacterial Meningitides,Meningitides, Bacterial
D017063	Outcome Assessment, Health Care	Research aimed at assessing the quality and effectiveness of health care as measured by the attainment of a specified end result or outcome. Measures include parameters such as improved health, lowered morbidity or mortality, and improvement of abnormal states (such as elevated blood pressure).	Assessment, Outcome,Outcome Assessment,Outcome Assessment (Health Care),Outcomes Research,Assessment, Outcomes,Outcome Measures,Outcome Studies,Outcomes Assessment,Assessment, Outcome (Health Care),Assessments, Outcome,Assessments, Outcome (Health Care),Assessments, Outcomes,Measure, Outcome,Measures, Outcome,Outcome Assessments,Outcome Assessments (Health Care),Outcome Measure,Outcome Study,Outcomes Assessments,Research, Outcomes,Studies, Outcome,Study, Outcome
D018570	Risk Assessment	The qualitative or quantitative estimation of the likelihood of adverse effects that may result from exposure to specified health hazards or from the absence of beneficial influences. (Last, Dictionary of Epidemiology, 1988)	Assessment, Risk,Benefit-Risk Assessment,Risk Analysis,Risk-Benefit Assessment,Health Risk Assessment,Risks and Benefits,Analysis, Risk,Assessment, Benefit-Risk,Assessment, Health Risk,Assessment, Risk-Benefit,Benefit Risk Assessment,Benefit-Risk Assessments,Benefits and Risks,Health Risk Assessments,Risk Analyses,Risk Assessment, Health,Risk Assessments,Risk Benefit Assessment,Risk-Benefit Assessments