Empirical Bayes approach to estimating the number of HIV-infected individuals in hidden and elusive populations. 2000

Y H Hsieh, and C W Chen, and S M Lee
Department of Applied Mathematics, National Chung-Hsing University, Taichung, Taiwan. hsieh@amath.nchu.edu.tw

In this paper we estimate the numbers of intravenous drug users (IVDUs) and commercial sex workers (CSWs) in Thailand infected with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) who have not developed acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) directly from the semi-annual HIV serosurveillance data of Thailand from June 1993 to June 1995. We propose a 'generalized removal model for open populations' for estimating HIV-infected population size within a hidden, elusive, and perhaps high-risk population group, for all sampling time when capture probabilities vary with time. We apply empirical Bayes methodology to the generalized removal model for open populations by using the Gibbs sampler, a Markov chain Monte Carlo method. No assumption on the size of the hidden population in question is needed to implement this procedure. The statistical method proposed here requires very little computing and only a minimum of two sets of serosurvey data to obtain an estimate, thereby providing a simple and viable option in epidemiological studies when either powerful computing facilities or abundant sampling data are lacking.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D008297 Male Males
D008954 Models, Biological Theoretical representations that simulate the behavior or activity of biological processes or diseases. For disease models in living animals, DISEASE MODELS, ANIMAL is available. Biological models include the use of mathematical equations, computers, and other electronic equipment. Biological Model,Biological Models,Model, Biological,Models, Biologic,Biologic Model,Biologic Models,Model, Biologic
D009010 Monte Carlo Method In statistics, a technique for numerically approximating the solution of a mathematical problem by studying the distribution of some random variable, often generated by a computer. The name alludes to the randomness characteristic of the games of chance played at the gambling casinos in Monte Carlo. (From Random House Unabridged Dictionary, 2d ed, 1993) Method, Monte Carlo
D011477 Sex Work The act or practice of engaging in sexual relations for money or other benefit. Commercial Sex,Prostitution,Sex Industry,Industries, Sex,Sex Industries,Sex, Commercial,Work, Sex
D005260 Female Females
D006678 HIV Human immunodeficiency virus. A non-taxonomic and historical term referring to any of two species, specifically HIV-1 and/or HIV-2. Prior to 1986, this was called human T-lymphotropic virus type III/lymphadenopathy-associated virus (HTLV-III/LAV). From 1986-1990, it was an official species called HIV. Since 1991, HIV was no longer considered an official species name; the two species were designated HIV-1 and HIV-2. AIDS Virus,HTLV-III,Human Immunodeficiency Viruses,Human T-Cell Lymphotropic Virus Type III,Human T-Lymphotropic Virus Type III,LAV-HTLV-III,Lymphadenopathy-Associated Virus,Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome Virus,Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome Virus,Human Immunodeficiency Virus,Human T Cell Lymphotropic Virus Type III,Human T Lymphotropic Virus Type III,Human T-Cell Leukemia Virus Type III,Immunodeficiency Virus, Human,Immunodeficiency Viruses, Human,Virus, Human Immunodeficiency,Viruses, Human Immunodeficiency,AIDS Viruses,Human T Cell Leukemia Virus Type III,Lymphadenopathy Associated Virus,Lymphadenopathy-Associated Viruses,Virus, AIDS,Virus, Lymphadenopathy-Associated,Viruses, AIDS,Viruses, Lymphadenopathy-Associated
D006801 Humans Members of the species Homo sapiens. Homo sapiens,Man (Taxonomy),Human,Man, Modern,Modern Man
D001499 Bayes Theorem A theorem in probability theory named for Thomas Bayes (1702-1761). In epidemiology, it is used to obtain the probability of disease in a group of people with some characteristic on the basis of the overall rate of that disease and of the likelihood of that characteristic in healthy and diseased individuals. The most familiar application is in clinical decision analysis where it is used for estimating the probability of a particular diagnosis given the appearance of some symptoms or test result. Bayesian Analysis,Bayesian Estimation,Bayesian Forecast,Bayesian Method,Bayesian Prediction,Analysis, Bayesian,Bayesian Approach,Approach, Bayesian,Approachs, Bayesian,Bayesian Approachs,Estimation, Bayesian,Forecast, Bayesian,Method, Bayesian,Prediction, Bayesian,Theorem, Bayes
D013785 Thailand Formerly known as Siam, this is a Southeast Asian nation at the center of the Indochina peninsula. Bangkok is the capital city. Kingdom of Thailand,Siam
D015658 HIV Infections Includes the spectrum of human immunodeficiency virus infections that range from asymptomatic seropositivity, thru AIDS-related complex (ARC), to acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS). HTLV-III Infections,HTLV-III-LAV Infections,T-Lymphotropic Virus Type III Infections, Human,HIV Coinfection,Coinfection, HIV,Coinfections, HIV,HIV Coinfections,HIV Infection,HTLV III Infections,HTLV III LAV Infections,HTLV-III Infection,HTLV-III-LAV Infection,Infection, HIV,Infection, HTLV-III,Infection, HTLV-III-LAV,Infections, HIV,Infections, HTLV-III,Infections, HTLV-III-LAV,T Lymphotropic Virus Type III Infections, Human

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