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BACKGROUND Although patients with differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC) of follicular cell origin usually have an excellent prognosis, some patients die from progressive tumor. Numerous postoperative criteria have been used to predict prognosis in patients with DTC. The purpose of this investigation was to determine whether the TNM and metastases, age, completeness of resection, invasion, size (MACIS) classifications predicted survival time and why patients died from DTC. The extent of initial treatment and causes of death were also evaluated in these patients who died from thyroid cancer. METHODS Between 1965 and 1995, 102 of 1,224 patients with DTC treated at the University of California at San Francisco (UCSF) and UCSF/Mount Zion Medical Centers died from DTC. Risk factors including age at diagnosis, gender, histologic characteristics, TNM and MACIS classifications, the intervals among initial treatment, recurrence, and death, and the initial and subsequent treatments were documented in these 102 patients. RESULTS Among the 102 patients who died of DTC 50% were men and 50% were women. The mean age of patients with DTC at diagnosis was 58 years at recurrence, 62 and 65 years at death. Thirty percent of these patients initially had unilateral thyroid operations and 70% had a bilateral operation. Tumors at presentation ranged from 0.6 to 13.0 cm (mean 4.4 cm); 46% of patients presented with late-stage tumors (TNM stage III, IV; MACIS score > 8). At presentation 46% of the patients had locally recurrent disease or regional metastases and 18% had distant metastases. Patients with persistent disease had a significantly shorter survival time than those with recurrent disease (p < 0.001). Both TNM and MACIS classifications were good predictors of survival time. Reoperations were performed in 51% of papillary, 26% of follicular, and 67% of Hürthle cell thyroid cancer patients. Fifty percent of patients with papillary thyroid cancer, 50% of patients with Hürthle cell thyroid cancer, and 11% of patients with follicular cell thyroid cancer died of locally advanced disease. CONCLUSIONS As expected, patients with local or regional recurrence and those with TNM stage I or MACIS score < 6 survived longer than patients with distant metastasis and TNM stage III or IV, MACIS score > 6, but some patients thought to be at low risk (TNM stage I; MACIS < 6) also died from thyroid cancer.
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