Biomaterial Database

Basic principles of ROC analysis. 1978

C E Metz

The limitations of diagnostic "accuracy" as a measure of decision performance require introduction of the concepts of the "sensitivity" and "specificity" of a diagnostic test. These measures and the related indices, "true positive fraction" and "false positive fraction," are more meaningful than "accuracy," yet do not provide a unique description of diagnostic performance because they depend on the arbitrary selection of a decision threshold. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve is shown to be a simple yet complete empirical description of this decision threshold effect, indicating all possible combinations of the relative frequencies of the various kinds of correct and incorrect decisions. Practical experimental techniques for measuring ROC curves are described, and the issues of case selection and curve-fitting are discussed briefly. Possible generalizations of conventional ROC analysis to account for decision performance in complex diagnostic tasks are indicated. ROC analysis is shown to be related in a direct and natural way to cost/benefit analysis of diagnostic decision making. The concepts of "average diagnostic cost" and "average net benefit" are developed and used to identify the optimal compromise among various kinds of diagnostic error. Finally, the way in which ROC analysis can be employed to optimize diagnostic strategies is suggested.

UI	MeSH Term	Description	Entries
D008722	Methods	A series of steps taken in order to conduct research.	Techniques,Methodological Studies,Methodological Study,Procedures,Studies, Methodological,Study, Methodological,Method,Procedure,Technique
D008962	Models, Theoretical	Theoretical representations that simulate the behavior or activity of systems, processes, or phenomena. They include the use of mathematical equations, computers, and other electronic equipment.	Experimental Model,Experimental Models,Mathematical Model,Model, Experimental,Models (Theoretical),Models, Experimental,Models, Theoretic,Theoretical Study,Mathematical Models,Model (Theoretical),Model, Mathematical,Model, Theoretical,Models, Mathematical,Studies, Theoretical,Study, Theoretical,Theoretical Model,Theoretical Models,Theoretical Studies
D011877	Radionuclide Imaging	The production of an image obtained by cameras that detect the radioactive emissions of an injected radionuclide as it has distributed differentially throughout tissues in the body. The image obtained from a moving detector is called a scan, while the image obtained from a stationary camera device is called a scintiphotograph.	Gamma Camera Imaging,Radioisotope Scanning,Scanning, Radioisotope,Scintigraphy,Scintiphotography,Imaging, Gamma Camera,Imaging, Radionuclide
D003362	Cost-Benefit Analysis	A method of comparing the cost of a program with its expected benefits in dollars (or other currency). The benefit-to-cost ratio is a measure of total return expected per unit of money spent. This analysis generally excludes consideration of factors that are not measured ultimately in economic terms. In contrast a cost effectiveness in general compares cost with qualitative outcomes.	Cost and Benefit,Cost-Benefit Data,Benefits and Costs,Cost Benefit,Cost Benefit Analysis,Cost-Utility Analysis,Costs and Benefits,Economic Evaluation,Marginal Analysis,Analyses, Cost Benefit,Analysis, Cost Benefit,Analysis, Cost-Benefit,Analysis, Cost-Utility,Analysis, Marginal,Benefit and Cost,Cost Benefit Analyses,Cost Benefit Data,Cost Utility Analysis,Cost-Benefit Analyses,Cost-Utility Analyses,Data, Cost-Benefit,Economic Evaluations,Evaluation, Economic,Marginal Analyses
D003657	Decision Making	The process of making a selective intellectual judgment when presented with several complex alternatives consisting of several variables, and usually defining a course of action or an idea.	Credit Assignment,Assignment, Credit,Assignments, Credit,Credit Assignments
D003933	Diagnosis	The determination of the nature of a disease or condition, or the distinguishing of one disease or condition from another. Assessment may be made through physical examination, laboratory tests, or the likes. Computerized programs may be used to enhance the decision-making process.	Diagnose,Diagnoses and Examination,Antemortem Diagnosis,Diagnoses and Examinations,Examinations and Diagnoses,Postmortem Diagnosis,Antemortem Diagnoses,Diagnoses,Diagnoses, Antemortem,Diagnoses, Postmortem,Diagnosis, Antemortem,Diagnosis, Postmortem,Examination and Diagnoses,Postmortem Diagnoses
D003937	Diagnosis, Differential	Determination of which one of two or more diseases or conditions a patient is suffering from by systematically comparing and contrasting results of diagnostic measures.	Diagnoses, Differential,Differential Diagnoses,Differential Diagnosis
D003951	Diagnostic Errors	Incorrect or incomplete diagnoses following clinical or technical diagnostic procedures.	Diagnostic Blind Spots,Errors, Diagnostic,Misdiagnosis,Blind Spot, Diagnostic,Blind Spots, Diagnostic,Diagnostic Blind Spot,Diagnostic Error,Error, Diagnostic,Misdiagnoses
D005069	Evaluation Studies as Topic	Works about studies that determine the effectiveness or value of processes, personnel, and equipment, or the material on conducting such studies.	Critique,Evaluation Indexes,Evaluation Methodology,Evaluation Report,Evaluation Research,Methodology, Evaluation,Pre-Post Tests,Qualitative Evaluation,Quantitative Evaluation,Theoretical Effectiveness,Use-Effectiveness,Critiques,Effectiveness, Theoretical,Evaluation Methodologies,Evaluation Reports,Evaluation, Qualitative,Evaluation, Quantitative,Evaluations, Qualitative,Evaluations, Quantitative,Indexes, Evaluation,Methodologies, Evaluation,Pre Post Tests,Pre-Post Test,Qualitative Evaluations,Quantitative Evaluations,Report, Evaluation,Reports, Evaluation,Research, Evaluation,Test, Pre-Post,Tests, Pre-Post,Use Effectiveness
D005189	False Positive Reactions	Positive test results in subjects who do not possess the attribute for which the test is conducted. The labeling of healthy persons as diseased when screening in the detection of disease. (Last, A Dictionary of Epidemiology, 2d ed)	False Positive Reaction,Positive Reaction, False,Positive Reactions, False,Reaction, False Positive,Reactions, False Positive

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