Dose-response implications of the University of Alabama study of lymphohematopoietic cancer among workers exposed to 1,3-butadiene and styrene in the synthetic rubber industry. 2001

R L Sielken, and C Valdez-Flores
Sielken & Associates Consulting Inc., Suite 230, 3833 Texas Avenue, Bryan, TX 77802, USA. sielkeninc@aol.com

New quantitative cancer risk estimates for exposure to 1,3-butadiene are presented. These estimates are based on the most recent human epidemiologic data developed by Drs Delzell and Macaluso and their colleagues at the University of Alabama at Birmingham. The implications of Poisson regression analyses of the relative rate for leukemia are explored using their updated dose estimates and lymphohematopoietic cancer data. The Poisson regression model in these analyses has the same form as in the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)'s draft risk assessment of 1,3-butadiene [U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Health Risk Assessment of 1,3-Butadiene - External Review Draft, National Center for Environmental Assessment, Office of Research and Development, 63 Fed. Reg. 7167 (February 12, 1998) Publication NCEA-W-0267, Washington, 1998]. Consistent with the proposed cancer risk assessment guidelines of the EPA and the EPA's draft risk assessment, the exploration includes the maximum likelihood estimate of the 'effective concentration' (EC(01)) corresponding to an extra risk of leukemia of 0.01 (1%) from a lifetime continuous exposure to 1,3-butadiene based on a linear dose-response model and the cumulative 1,3-butadiene dose metric (ppm-years). The incorporation of the most recent exposure estimates results in a 2.5-fold decrease in the estimates of leukemia risks computed by EPA. In addition, three changes proposed by the American Chemistry Council (formerly the Chemical Manufacturers Association) to the EPA's Science Advisory Board (SAB) for EPA's draft risk assessment of 1,3-butadiene are incorporated into the calculation. This results in approximately an additional fivefold decrease in the risk estimates of leukemia. The leukemia cancer risk estimates in the EPA's draft risk assessment of 1,3-butadiene decrease by approximately a factor of 13-fold when the updated epidemiologic data and the alternative numbers proposed by industry to the SAB are both incorporated. Specifically, the maximum likelihood estimate of the EC(01) increases from EPA's 1.2 ppm to 2.8 ppm on the basis of the updated epidemiologic data and increases further to 15.1 ppm when the CMA's proposed changes are also incorporated.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D007938 Leukemia A progressive, malignant disease of the blood-forming organs, characterized by distorted proliferation and development of leukocytes and their precursors in the blood and bone marrow. Leukemias were originally termed acute or chronic based on life expectancy but now are classified according to cellular maturity. Acute leukemias consist of predominately immature cells; chronic leukemias are composed of more mature cells. (From The Merck Manual, 2006) Leucocythaemia,Leucocythemia,Leucocythaemias,Leucocythemias,Leukemias
D008223 Lymphoma A general term for various neoplastic diseases of the lymphoid tissue. Germinoblastoma,Lymphoma, Malignant,Reticulolymphosarcoma,Sarcoma, Germinoblastic,Germinoblastic Sarcoma,Germinoblastic Sarcomas,Germinoblastomas,Lymphomas,Lymphomas, Malignant,Malignant Lymphoma,Malignant Lymphomas,Reticulolymphosarcomas,Sarcomas, Germinoblastic
D008297 Male Males
D009784 Occupational Diseases Diseases caused by factors involved in one's employment. Diseases, Occupational,Occupational Illnesses,Disease, Occupational,Illnesse, Occupational,Illnesses, Occupational,Occupational Disease,Occupational Illnesse
D012044 Regression Analysis Procedures for finding the mathematical function which best describes the relationship between a dependent variable and one or more independent variables. In linear regression (see LINEAR MODELS) the relationship is constrained to be a straight line and LEAST-SQUARES ANALYSIS is used to determine the best fit. In logistic regression (see LOGISTIC MODELS) the dependent variable is qualitative rather than continuously variable and LIKELIHOOD FUNCTIONS are used to find the best relationship. In multiple regression, the dependent variable is considered to depend on more than a single independent variable. Regression Diagnostics,Statistical Regression,Analysis, Regression,Analyses, Regression,Diagnostics, Regression,Regression Analyses,Regression, Statistical,Regressions, Statistical,Statistical Regressions
D002070 Butadienes Four carbon unsaturated hydrocarbons containing two double bonds. Butadiene Derivative,Butadiene Derivatives,Derivative, Butadiene,Derivatives, Butadiene
D002617 Chemical Industry The aggregate enterprise of manufacturing and technically producing chemicals. (From Random House Unabridged Dictionary, 2d ed) Industry, Chemical,Chemical Industries,Industries, Chemical
D004305 Dose-Response Relationship, Drug The relationship between the dose of an administered drug and the response of the organism to the drug. Dose Response Relationship, Drug,Dose-Response Relationships, Drug,Drug Dose-Response Relationship,Drug Dose-Response Relationships,Relationship, Drug Dose-Response,Relationships, Drug Dose-Response
D005260 Female Females
D006801 Humans Members of the species Homo sapiens. Homo sapiens,Man (Taxonomy),Human,Man, Modern,Modern Man

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