Multi-state models for bone marrow transplantation studies. 2002

John P Klein, and Youyi Shu
Division of Biostatistics, Medical College of Wisconsin, 8701 Watertown Plank Road, Milwaukee, WI 53226, USA.

High-dose chemotherapy followed by stem cell recovery, more commonly called a bone marrow transplant, is a common treatment for a number of diseases. This article examines four problems commonly encountered when dealing with bone marrow transplant studies. First, we look at the problem of competing causes of failure and at methods based on a multi-state model to estimate meaningful probabilities for these risks. Second, we examine methods for estimating the prevalence of an intermediate condition, here the prevalence of chronic GVHD. Third, we look at the problem of modeling the post transplant recovery process and we provide two examples of how these estimates can be used to assess dynamically a patient's prognosis or how these probabilities can be used to design trials of new therapy. Finally, we present an estimate of a new measure of treatment efficiency, the current leukemia free survival function, which is derived from a multi-state model approach.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D007938 Leukemia A progressive, malignant disease of the blood-forming organs, characterized by distorted proliferation and development of leukocytes and their precursors in the blood and bone marrow. Leukemias were originally termed acute or chronic based on life expectancy but now are classified according to cellular maturity. Acute leukemias consist of predominately immature cells; chronic leukemias are composed of more mature cells. (From The Merck Manual, 2006) Leucocythaemia,Leucocythemia,Leucocythaemias,Leucocythemias,Leukemias
D008390 Markov Chains A stochastic process such that the conditional probability distribution for a state at any future instant, given the present state, is unaffected by any additional knowledge of the past history of the system. Markov Process,Markov Chain,Chain, Markov,Chains, Markov,Markov Processes,Process, Markov,Processes, Markov
D008954 Models, Biological Theoretical representations that simulate the behavior or activity of biological processes or diseases. For disease models in living animals, DISEASE MODELS, ANIMAL is available. Biological models include the use of mathematical equations, computers, and other electronic equipment. Biological Model,Biological Models,Model, Biological,Models, Biologic,Biologic Model,Biologic Models,Model, Biologic
D011336 Probability The study of chance processes or the relative frequency characterizing a chance process. Probabilities
D006086 Graft vs Host Disease The clinical entity characterized by anorexia, diarrhea, loss of hair, leukopenia, thrombocytopenia, growth retardation, and eventual death brought about by the GRAFT VS HOST REACTION. Graft-Versus-Host Disease,Homologous Wasting Disease,Runt Disease,Graft-vs-Host Disease,Disease, Graft-Versus-Host,Disease, Graft-vs-Host,Disease, Homologous Wasting,Disease, Runt,Diseases, Graft-Versus-Host,Diseases, Graft-vs-Host,Graft Versus Host Disease,Graft-Versus-Host Diseases,Graft-vs-Host Diseases
D006801 Humans Members of the species Homo sapiens. Homo sapiens,Man (Taxonomy),Human,Man, Modern,Modern Man
D001699 Biometry The use of statistical and mathematical methods to analyze biological observations and phenomena. Biometric Analysis,Biometrics,Analyses, Biometric,Analysis, Biometric,Biometric Analyses
D012307 Risk Factors An aspect of personal behavior or lifestyle, environmental exposure, inborn or inherited characteristic, which, based on epidemiological evidence, is known to be associated with a health-related condition considered important to prevent. Health Correlates,Risk Factor Scores,Risk Scores,Social Risk Factors,Population at Risk,Populations at Risk,Correlates, Health,Factor, Risk,Factor, Social Risk,Factors, Social Risk,Risk Factor,Risk Factor Score,Risk Factor, Social,Risk Factors, Social,Risk Score,Score, Risk,Score, Risk Factor,Social Risk Factor
D016026 Bone Marrow Transplantation The transference of BONE MARROW from one human or animal to another for a variety of purposes including HEMATOPOIETIC STEM CELL TRANSPLANTATION or MESENCHYMAL STEM CELL TRANSPLANTATION. Bone Marrow Cell Transplantation,Grafting, Bone Marrow,Transplantation, Bone Marrow,Transplantation, Bone Marrow Cell,Bone Marrow Grafting
D017211 Treatment Failure A measure of the quality of health care by assessment of unsuccessful results of management and procedures used in combating disease, in individual cases or series. Failure, Treatment,Failures, Treatment,Treatment Failures

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