Preoperative prediction of early mortality and morbidity in coronary bypass surgery. 2002

Stijn C W Wouters, and Luc Noyez, and Freek W A Verheugt, and Rene M H J Brouwer
Heartcenter, Department of Thoracic and Cardiac Surgery-414, University of Nijmegen Medical Center, St. Radboud, PO Box 9101, The Netherlands.

OBJECTIVE A scoring system to predict early mortality and morbidity in CABG, distinguishing low and high risk patients. METHODS 563 patients (1998) served as development dataset, 969 patients as validation set. Univariate and logistic regression analysis was used to identify risk factors. RESULTS Gender, hypertension, pulmonary disease, reoperation, age, operative status and left-ventricular function were predictive variables for early mortality. The area under the ROC curve was 0.81. We identified a low risk, mortality of 1.8% and a high-risk group, mortality of 13.4%. Diabetes, hypertension, kidney and lung disease, reoperation, operative status and left ventricular function were predictive variables for morbidity. The area under the ROC curve was 0.73. We identified a low risk, morbidity of 17%, and a high-risk group, morbidity of 41%. CONCLUSIONS This scoring system is a simple system identifying a low and high-risk group for morbidity and early mortality.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D007902 Length of Stay The period of confinement of a patient to a hospital or other health facility. Hospital Stay,Hospital Stays,Stay Length,Stay Lengths,Stay, Hospital,Stays, Hospital
D008297 Male Males
D008875 Middle Aged An adult aged 45 - 64 years. Middle Age
D009017 Morbidity The proportion of patients with a particular disease during a given year per given unit of population. Morbidities
D009426 Netherlands Country located in EUROPE. It is bordered by the NORTH SEA, BELGIUM, and GERMANY. Constituent areas are Aruba, Curacao, and Sint Maarten, formerly included in the NETHERLANDS ANTILLES. Holland,Kingdom of the Netherlands
D011379 Prognosis A prediction of the probable outcome of a disease based on a individual's condition and the usual course of the disease as seen in similar situations. Prognostic Factor,Prognostic Factors,Factor, Prognostic,Factors, Prognostic,Prognoses
D003430 Cross-Sectional Studies Studies in which the presence or absence of disease or other health-related variables are determined in each member of the study population or in a representative sample at one particular time. This contrasts with LONGITUDINAL STUDIES which are followed over a period of time. Disease Frequency Surveys,Prevalence Studies,Analysis, Cross-Sectional,Cross Sectional Analysis,Cross-Sectional Survey,Surveys, Disease Frequency,Analyses, Cross Sectional,Analyses, Cross-Sectional,Analysis, Cross Sectional,Cross Sectional Analyses,Cross Sectional Studies,Cross Sectional Survey,Cross-Sectional Analyses,Cross-Sectional Analysis,Cross-Sectional Study,Cross-Sectional Surveys,Disease Frequency Survey,Prevalence Study,Studies, Cross-Sectional,Studies, Prevalence,Study, Cross-Sectional,Study, Prevalence,Survey, Cross-Sectional,Survey, Disease Frequency,Surveys, Cross-Sectional
D005260 Female Females
D005500 Follow-Up Studies Studies in which individuals or populations are followed to assess the outcome of exposures, procedures, or effects of a characteristic, e.g., occurrence of disease. Followup Studies,Follow Up Studies,Follow-Up Study,Followup Study,Studies, Follow-Up,Studies, Followup,Study, Follow-Up,Study, Followup
D006801 Humans Members of the species Homo sapiens. Homo sapiens,Man (Taxonomy),Human,Man, Modern,Modern Man

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