Teaching Bayesian reasoning: an evaluation of a classroom tutorial for medical students. 2002

Stephanie Kurzenhäuser, and Ulrich Hoffrage
Max Planck Institute for Human Development, Center for Adaptive Behavior and Cognition, Berlin, Germany. kurzenh@mpib-berlin.mpg.de

How likely is a diagnosis, given a particular medical test result? This probability can be determined by using Bayes's rule; however, previous research has shown that doctors often experience problems with Bayesian inferences. These findings illustrate the need to teach statistical reasoning in medical education. A new method of teaching Bayesian reasoning is representation learning: the key idea is to instruct medical students how to translate probability information into a representation that is easier to process, namely natural frequencies. This approach was implemented in a one-hour classroom tutorial to evaluate its effectiveness in this setting and compared with a traditional rule-learning approach. Evaluation took place two months after training by testing students' ability to correctly solve a Bayesian inference task with information represented as probabilities. While both approaches improved performance, almost three times as many students were able to profit from representation training as opposed to rule training.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D008128 Logic The science that investigates the principles governing correct or reliable inference and deals with the canons and criteria of validity in thought and demonstration. This system of reasoning is applicable to any branch of knowledge or study. (Random House Unabridged Dictionary, 2d ed & Sippl, Computer Dictionary, 4th ed) Logics
D002983 Clinical Competence The capability to perform acceptably those duties directly related to patient care. Clinical Skills,Competence, Clinical,Clinical Competency,Clinical Skill,Competency, Clinical,Skill, Clinical,Skills, Clinical,Clinical Competencies,Competencies, Clinical
D003479 Curriculum A course of study offered by an educational institution. Curricula,Short-Term Courses,Course, Short-Term,Courses, Short-Term,Short Term Courses,Short-Term Course
D003657 Decision Making The process of making a selective intellectual judgment when presented with several complex alternatives consisting of several variables, and usually defining a course of action or an idea. Credit Assignment,Assignment, Credit,Assignments, Credit,Credit Assignments
D004504 Education, Medical, Undergraduate The period of medical education in a medical school. In the United States it follows the baccalaureate degree and precedes the granting of the M.D. Medical Education, Undergraduate,Education, Undergraduate Medical,Undergraduate Medical Education
D005858 Germany A country in central Europe, bordering the Baltic Sea and the North Sea, between the Netherlands and Poland, south of Denmark. The capital is Berlin.
D006801 Humans Members of the species Homo sapiens. Homo sapiens,Man (Taxonomy),Human,Man, Modern,Modern Man
D000328 Adult A person having attained full growth or maturity. Adults are of 19 through 44 years of age. For a person between 19 and 24 years of age, YOUNG ADULT is available. Adults
D001499 Bayes Theorem A theorem in probability theory named for Thomas Bayes (1702-1761). In epidemiology, it is used to obtain the probability of disease in a group of people with some characteristic on the basis of the overall rate of that disease and of the likelihood of that characteristic in healthy and diseased individuals. The most familiar application is in clinical decision analysis where it is used for estimating the probability of a particular diagnosis given the appearance of some symptoms or test result. Bayesian Analysis,Bayesian Estimation,Bayesian Forecast,Bayesian Method,Bayesian Prediction,Analysis, Bayesian,Bayesian Approach,Approach, Bayesian,Approachs, Bayesian,Bayesian Approachs,Estimation, Bayesian,Forecast, Bayesian,Method, Bayesian,Prediction, Bayesian,Theorem, Bayes
D013337 Students, Medical Individuals enrolled in a school of medicine or a formal educational program in medicine. Medical Student,Medical Students,Student, Medical

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