Biomaterial Database

Spatio-temporal synchronization of recurrent epidemics. 2003

Daihai He, and Lewi Stone

Department of Zoology, Tel Aviv University, Ramat Aviv, Tel Aviv 69978, Israel.

Long-term spatio-temporal datasets of disease incidences have made it clear that many recurring epidemics, especially childhood infections, tend to synchronize in-phase across suburbs. In some special cases, epidemics between suburbs have been found to oscillate in an out-of-phase ('antiphase') relationship for lengthy periods. Here, we use modelling techniques to help explain the presence of in-phase and antiphase synchronization. The nonlinearity of the epidemic dynamics is often such that the intensity of the outbreak influences the phase of the oscillation thereby introducing 'shear', a factor that is found to be important for generating antiphase synchronization. By contrast, the coupling between suburbs via the immigration of infectives tends to enhance in-phase synchronization. The emerging synchronization depends delicately on these opposite factors. We use theoretical results from continuous time models to provide a framework for understanding the relationship between synchronization patterns for different model structures.

UI	MeSH Term	Description	Entries
D008954	Models, Biological	Theoretical representations that simulate the behavior or activity of biological processes or diseases. For disease models in living animals, DISEASE MODELS, ANIMAL is available. Biological models include the use of mathematical equations, computers, and other electronic equipment.	Biological Model,Biological Models,Model, Biological,Models, Biologic,Biologic Model,Biologic Models,Model, Biologic
D003198	Computer Simulation	Computer-based representation of physical systems and phenomena such as chemical processes.	Computational Modeling,Computational Modelling,Computer Models,In silico Modeling,In silico Models,In silico Simulation,Models, Computer,Computerized Models,Computer Model,Computer Simulations,Computerized Model,In silico Model,Model, Computer,Model, Computerized,Model, In silico,Modeling, Computational,Modeling, In silico,Modelling, Computational,Simulation, Computer,Simulation, In silico,Simulations, Computer
D003710	Demography	Statistical interpretation and description of a population with reference to distribution, composition, or structure.	Demographer,Demographic,Demographic and Health Survey,Population Distribution,Accounting, Demographic,Analyses, Demographic,Analyses, Multiregional,Analysis, Period,Brass Technic,Brass Technique,Demographers,Demographic Accounting,Demographic Analysis,Demographic Factor,Demographic Factors,Demographic Impact,Demographic Impacts,Demographic Survey,Demographic Surveys,Demographic and Health Surveys,Demographics,Demography, Historical,Demography, Prehistoric,Factor, Demographic,Factors, Demographic,Family Reconstitution,Historical Demography,Impact, Demographic,Impacts, Demographic,Multiregional Analysis,Period Analysis,Population Spatial Distribution,Prehistoric Demography,Reverse Survival Method,Stable Population Method,Survey, Demographic,Surveys, Demographic,Analyses, Period,Analysis, Demographic,Analysis, Multiregional,Demographic Analyses,Demographies, Historical,Demographies, Prehistoric,Distribution, Population,Distribution, Population Spatial,Distributions, Population,Distributions, Population Spatial,Family Reconstitutions,Historical Demographies,Method, Reverse Survival,Method, Stable Population,Methods, Reverse Survival,Methods, Stable Population,Multiregional Analyses,Period Analyses,Population Distributions,Population Methods, Stable,Population Spatial Distributions,Prehistoric Demographies,Reconstitution, Family,Reconstitutions, Family,Reverse Survival Methods,Spatial Distribution, Population,Spatial Distributions, Population,Stable Population Methods,Technic, Brass,Technique, Brass
D004196	Disease Outbreaks	Sudden increase in the incidence of a disease. The concept includes EPIDEMICS and PANDEMICS.	Outbreaks,Infectious Disease Outbreaks,Disease Outbreak,Disease Outbreak, Infectious,Disease Outbreaks, Infectious,Infectious Disease Outbreak,Outbreak, Disease,Outbreak, Infectious Disease,Outbreaks, Disease,Outbreaks, Infectious Disease
D013383	Suburban Population	The inhabitants of peripheral or adjacent areas of a city or town.	Suburban Residence,Nonmetropolitan Population,Suburbanization,Nonmetropolitan Populations,Population, Nonmetropolitan,Population, Suburban,Residence, Suburban,Suburban Populations,Suburban Residences
D013997	Time Factors	Elements of limited time intervals, contributing to particular results or situations.	Time Series,Factor, Time,Time Factor
D017711	Nonlinear Dynamics	The study of systems which respond disproportionately (nonlinearly) to initial conditions or perturbing stimuli. Nonlinear systems may exhibit "chaos" which is classically characterized as sensitive dependence on initial conditions. Chaotic systems, while distinguished from more ordered periodic systems, are not random. When their behavior over time is appropriately displayed (in "phase space"), constraints are evident which are described by "strange attractors". Phase space representations of chaotic systems, or strange attractors, usually reveal fractal (FRACTALS) self-similarity across time scales. Natural, including biological, systems often display nonlinear dynamics and chaos.	Chaos Theory,Models, Nonlinear,Non-linear Dynamics,Non-linear Models,Chaos Theories,Dynamics, Non-linear,Dynamics, Nonlinear,Model, Non-linear,Model, Nonlinear,Models, Non-linear,Non linear Dynamics,Non linear Models,Non-linear Dynamic,Non-linear Model,Nonlinear Dynamic,Nonlinear Model,Nonlinear Models,Theories, Chaos,Theory, Chaos