The decision theory of paternity disputes: optimization considerations applied to multilocus DNA fingerprinting. 1992

M Krawczak, and J Schmidtke
Department of Human Genetics, MHH, Hannover, Germany.

The solution of paternity disputes using results from scientific analyses is studied from a decision-theoretical viewpoint. Two alternative approaches to decision making, the so-called 'Bayes' and 'Minimax' strategies, are described and discussed. If prior probabilities of paternity are exactly known, then Bayes decisions are (a) independent of the source of evidence and (b) optimal with respect to average losses caused by wrong decisions. However, it is concluded that Minimax decisions, which depend upon the employed test system but not upon prior probabilities, are more appropriate in paternity cases if equal prior good will towards disclaimed children and alleged fathers is demanded. It is further demonstrated that, when major evidence about paternity comes from multilocus DNA fingerprinting, prior probabilities must be known quite accurately for Bayes decisions to be superior with respect to average losses. Finally, we are able to show that 'quasi' Bayes decision making, that is, adopting a neutral prior probability of 0.5 but leaving thresholds for decision making unchanged, coincides with Minimax decision making if multilocus DNA fingerprinting is employed.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D008297 Male Males
D010334 Paternity Establishing the father relationship of a man and a child. Paternities
D003662 Decision Theory A theoretical technique utilizing a group of related constructs to describe or prescribe how individuals or groups of people choose a course of action when faced with several alternatives and a variable amount of knowledge about the determinants of the outcomes of those alternatives. Decision Theories,Theories, Decision,Theory, Decision
D006801 Humans Members of the species Homo sapiens. Homo sapiens,Man (Taxonomy),Human,Man, Modern,Modern Man
D001499 Bayes Theorem A theorem in probability theory named for Thomas Bayes (1702-1761). In epidemiology, it is used to obtain the probability of disease in a group of people with some characteristic on the basis of the overall rate of that disease and of the likelihood of that characteristic in healthy and diseased individuals. The most familiar application is in clinical decision analysis where it is used for estimating the probability of a particular diagnosis given the appearance of some symptoms or test result. Bayesian Analysis,Bayesian Estimation,Bayesian Forecast,Bayesian Method,Bayesian Prediction,Analysis, Bayesian,Bayesian Approach,Approach, Bayesian,Approachs, Bayesian,Bayesian Approachs,Estimation, Bayesian,Forecast, Bayesian,Method, Bayesian,Prediction, Bayesian,Theorem, Bayes
D016013 Likelihood Functions Functions constructed from a statistical model and a set of observed data which give the probability of that data for various values of the unknown model parameters. Those parameter values that maximize the probability are the maximum likelihood estimates of the parameters. Likelihood Ratio Test,Maximum Likelihood Estimates,Estimate, Maximum Likelihood,Estimates, Maximum Likelihood,Function, Likelihood,Functions, Likelihood,Likelihood Function,Maximum Likelihood Estimate,Test, Likelihood Ratio
D016172 DNA Fingerprinting A technique for identifying individuals of a species that is based on the uniqueness of their DNA sequence. Uniqueness is determined by identifying which combination of allelic variations occur in the individual at a statistically relevant number of different loci. In forensic studies, RESTRICTION FRAGMENT LENGTH POLYMORPHISM of multiple, highly polymorphic VNTR LOCI or MICROSATELLITE REPEAT loci are analyzed. The number of loci used for the profile depends on the ALLELE FREQUENCY in the population. DNA Fingerprints,DNA Profiling,DNA Typing,Genetic Fingerprinting,DNA Fingerprint,DNA Fingerprintings,DNA Profilings,DNA Typings,Fingerprint, DNA,Fingerprinting, DNA,Fingerprinting, Genetic,Fingerprintings, DNA,Fingerprintings, Genetic,Fingerprints, DNA,Genetic Fingerprintings,Profiling, DNA,Typing, DNA,Typings, DNA

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