Estimating local interaction from spatiotemporal forest data, and Monte Carlo bias correction. 2004

Akiko Satake, and Yoh Iwasa, and Hiroshi Hakoyama, and Stephen P Hubbell
Department of Biology, Faculty of Sciences, Kyushu University, Fukuoka 812-8581, Japan. satake@bio-math10.biology.kyushu-u.ac.jp

We point out a general problem in fitting continuous time spatially explicit models to a temporal sequence of spatial data observed at discrete times. To illustrate the problem, we examined the continuous time Markov model for forest gap dynamics. A forest is assumed to be apportioned into discrete cells (or sites) arranged in a regular square lattice. Each site is characterized as either a gap or a non-gap site according to the vegetation height of trees. The model incorporates the influence of neighboring sites on transition rate: transition rate from a non-gap to a gap site increases linearly with the number of neighbors that are currently in the gap state, and vice versa. We fitted the model to the spatiotemporal data of canopy height observed at the permanent plot in Barro Colorado Island (BCI). When we used the approximate maximum likelihood method to estimate the parameters of the model, the estimated transition rates included a large bias-in particular, the strength of interaction between nearby sites was underestimated. This bias originated from the assumption that each transition between two observation times is independent. The interaction between sites at local scale creates a long chain of transitions within a single census interval, which violates the independence of each transition. We show that a computer-intensive method, called Monte Carlo bias correction (MCBC), is very effective in removing the bias included in the estimate. The global and local gap densities measuring spatial aggregation of gap sites were computed from simulated and real gap dynamics to assess the model. When the approximate likelihood estimates were applied to the model, the predicted local gap density was clearly lower than the observed one. The use of MCBC estimates, suggesting a strong interaction between sites, improved this discrepancy.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D009010 Monte Carlo Method In statistics, a technique for numerically approximating the solution of a mathematical problem by studying the distribution of some random variable, often generated by a computer. The name alludes to the randomness characteristic of the games of chance played at the gambling casinos in Monte Carlo. (From Random House Unabridged Dictionary, 2d ed, 1993) Method, Monte Carlo
D003627 Data Interpretation, Statistical Application of statistical procedures to analyze specific observed or assumed facts from a particular study. Data Analysis, Statistical,Data Interpretations, Statistical,Interpretation, Statistical Data,Statistical Data Analysis,Statistical Data Interpretation,Analyses, Statistical Data,Analysis, Statistical Data,Data Analyses, Statistical,Interpretations, Statistical Data,Statistical Data Analyses,Statistical Data Interpretations
D004784 Environmental Monitoring The monitoring of the level of toxins, chemical pollutants, microbial contaminants, or other harmful substances in the environment (soil, air, and water), workplace, or in the bodies of people and animals present in that environment. Monitoring, Environmental,Environmental Surveillance,Surveillance, Environmental
D013685 Telecommunications Transmission of information over distances via electronic means. Teleconference,Telegraphy,Telecommunication,Teleconferences,Telegraphies
D014197 Trees Woody, usually tall, perennial higher plants (Angiosperms, Gymnosperms, and some Pterophyta) having usually a main stem and numerous branches. Tree
D015588 Observer Variation The failure by the observer to measure or identify a phenomenon accurately, which results in an error. Sources for this may be due to the observer's missing an abnormality, or to faulty technique resulting in incorrect test measurement, or to misinterpretation of the data. Two varieties are inter-observer variation (the amount observers vary from one another when reporting on the same material) and intra-observer variation (the amount one observer varies between observations when reporting more than once on the same material). Bias, Observer,Interobserver Variation,Intraobserver Variation,Observer Bias,Inter-Observer Variability,Inter-Observer Variation,Interobserver Variability,Intra-Observer Variability,Intra-Observer Variation,Intraobserver Variability,Inter Observer Variability,Inter Observer Variation,Inter-Observer Variabilities,Inter-Observer Variations,Interobserver Variabilities,Interobserver Variations,Intra Observer Variability,Intra Observer Variation,Intra-Observer Variabilities,Intra-Observer Variations,Intraobserver Variabilities,Intraobserver Variations,Observer Variations,Variabilities, Inter-Observer,Variabilities, Interobserver,Variabilities, Intra-Observer,Variabilities, Intraobserver,Variability, Inter-Observer,Variability, Interobserver,Variability, Intra-Observer,Variability, Intraobserver,Variation, Inter-Observer,Variation, Interobserver,Variation, Intra-Observer,Variation, Intraobserver,Variation, Observer,Variations, Inter-Observer,Variations, Interobserver,Variations, Intra-Observer,Variations, Intraobserver,Variations, Observer
D016013 Likelihood Functions Functions constructed from a statistical model and a set of observed data which give the probability of that data for various values of the unknown model parameters. Those parameter values that maximize the probability are the maximum likelihood estimates of the parameters. Likelihood Ratio Test,Maximum Likelihood Estimates,Estimate, Maximum Likelihood,Estimates, Maximum Likelihood,Function, Likelihood,Functions, Likelihood,Likelihood Function,Maximum Likelihood Estimate,Test, Likelihood Ratio
D017753 Ecosystem A functional system which includes the organisms of a natural community together with their environment. (McGraw Hill Dictionary of Scientific and Technical Terms, 4th ed) Ecosystems,Biome,Ecologic System,Ecologic Systems,Ecological System,Habitat,Niche, Ecological,System, Ecological,Systems, Ecological,Biomes,Ecological Niche,Ecological Systems,Habitats,System, Ecologic,Systems, Ecologic

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