Validation of numerical ground water models used to guide decision making. 2004

Ahmed E Hassan
Division of Hydrologic Sciences, Desert Research Institute, University and Community College System of Nevada, 755 E. Flamingo Rd., Las Vegas, NV 89119, USA. hassan@dri.edu

Many sites of ground water contamination rely heavily on complex numerical models of flow and transport to develop closure plans. This complexity has created a need for tools and approaches that can build confidence in model predictions and provide evidence that these predictions are sufficient for decision making. Confidence building is a long-term, iterative process and the author believes that this process should be termed model validation. Model validation is a process, not an end result. That is, the process of model validation cannot ensure acceptable prediction or quality of the model. Rather, it provides an important safeguard against faulty models or inadequately developed and tested models. If model results become the basis for decision making, then the validation process provides evidence that the model is valid for making decisions (not necessarily a true representation of reality). Validation, verification, and confirmation are concepts associated with ground water numerical models that not only do not represent established and generally accepted practices, but there is not even widespread agreement on the meaning of the terms as applied to models. This paper presents a review of model validation studies that pertain to ground water flow and transport modeling. Definitions, literature debates, previously proposed validation strategies, and conferences and symposia that focused on subsurface model validation are reviewed and discussed. The review is general and focuses on site-specific, predictive ground water models used for making decisions regarding remediation activities and site closure. The aim is to provide a reasonable starting point for hydrogeologists facing model validation for ground water systems, thus saving a significant amount of time, effort, and cost. This review is also aimed at reviving the issue of model validation in the hydrogeologic community and stimulating the thinking of researchers and practitioners to develop practical and efficient tools for evaluating and refining ground water predictive models.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D008962 Models, Theoretical Theoretical representations that simulate the behavior or activity of systems, processes, or phenomena. They include the use of mathematical equations, computers, and other electronic equipment. Experimental Model,Experimental Models,Mathematical Model,Model, Experimental,Models (Theoretical),Models, Experimental,Models, Theoretic,Theoretical Study,Mathematical Models,Model (Theoretical),Model, Mathematical,Model, Theoretical,Models, Mathematical,Studies, Theoretical,Study, Theoretical,Theoretical Model,Theoretical Models,Theoretical Studies
D003657 Decision Making The process of making a selective intellectual judgment when presented with several complex alternatives consisting of several variables, and usually defining a course of action or an idea. Credit Assignment,Assignment, Credit,Assignments, Credit,Credit Assignments
D004777 Environment The external elements and conditions which surround, influence, and affect the life and development of an organism or population. Environmental Impact,Environmental Impacts,Impact, Environmental,Impacts, Environmental,Environments
D005544 Forecasting The prediction or projection of the nature of future problems or existing conditions based upon the extrapolation or interpretation of existing scientific data or by the application of scientific methodology. Futurology,Projections and Predictions,Future,Predictions and Projections
D012987 Soil The unconsolidated mineral or organic matter on the surface of the earth that serves as a natural medium for the growth of land plants. Peat,Humus,Soils
D014872 Water Movements The flow of water in enviromental bodies of water such as rivers, oceans, water supplies, aquariums, etc. It includes currents, tides, and waves. Movement, Water,Movements, Water,Water Movement
D014873 Water Pollutants Substances or organisms which pollute the water or bodies of water. Use for water pollutants in general or those for which there is no specific heading. Water Pollutant,Pollutant, Water,Pollutants, Water
D014881 Water Supply Means or process of supplying water (as for a community) usually including reservoirs, tunnels, and pipelines and often the watershed from which the water is ultimately drawn. (Webster, 3d ed) Supplies, Water,Supply, Water,Water Supplies

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