Predictive factors for synchronous common bile duct stone in patients with symptomatic cholelithiasis. 2004

Phunchai Charatcharoenwitthaya, and Yudhtana Sattawatthamrong, and Sathaporn Manatsathit, and Tawesak Tanwandee, and Somchai Leelakusolvong, and Udom Kachintorn, and Pairoj Leungrojanakul, and Sasiprapa Boonyapisit, and Supot Pongprasobchai
Division of Gastroenterology, Department of Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, Siriraj Hospital, Mahidol University, Bangkok 10700, Thailand.

BACKGROUND Laparoscopic cholecystectomy (LC) has become the treatment of choice for patients with symptomatic cholelithiasis. About 8-15 per cent of patients with symptomatic gallstones may bear associated common bile duct (CBD) stones, The management of choledocholithiasis in the laparoscopic era remain debatable. Although pre-operative endoscopic cholangiopancreatography (ERCP) is available and highly accurate in the detection of CBD stones, its routine use is controversial because of its inherent disadvantages. OBJECTIVE The aim of this retrospective study was to generate an effective predictive model for bile duct stones detection by pre-operative ERCP. METHODS Twelve pre-operative clinical, biochemical and sonographic variables from 206 consecutive patients who underwent pre-operative ERCP with LC for gallstones with/without CBD stones from October 1998 to December 2000 were retrospectively analysed RESULTS 143 of the 206 patients with gallstones were found to have CBD stones. The mean age was 61 (20-93) yr old, and 55.9 per cent were female. Multivariate analysis showed a high predictive value for the presence of CBD stones in patients aged > or = 55 yr old (Odd radio (OR) 1.03, 95% confidence interval (95% CI) 1.01-1.05), jaundice (OR 2.7, 95% CI 1.7-4.8), elevated alkaline phosphatase (OR 1.002, 95% CI 1.000-1.005), CBD dilatation on ultrasound (OR 3.8, 95% CI 1.8-8) and CBD stone on ultrasound. CONCLUSIONS The important clinical presentations and investigating could allow more appropriate use of pre-operative ERCP in patients who have symptomatic gallstones with a suspected CBD stone prior to cholecystectomy.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D008297 Male Males
D008875 Middle Aged An adult aged 45 - 64 years. Middle Age
D011237 Predictive Value of Tests In screening and diagnostic tests, the probability that a person with a positive test is a true positive (i.e., has the disease), is referred to as the predictive value of a positive test; whereas, the predictive value of a negative test is the probability that the person with a negative test does not have the disease. Predictive value is related to the sensitivity and specificity of the test. Negative Predictive Value,Positive Predictive Value,Predictive Value Of Test,Predictive Values Of Tests,Negative Predictive Values,Positive Predictive Values,Predictive Value, Negative,Predictive Value, Positive
D011300 Preoperative Care Care given during the period prior to undergoing surgery when psychological and physical preparations are made according to the special needs of the individual patient. This period spans the time between admission to the hospital to the time the surgery begins. (From Dictionary of Health Services Management, 2d ed) Care, Preoperative,Preoperative Procedure,Preoperative Procedures,Procedure, Preoperative,Procedures, Preoperative
D011336 Probability The study of chance processes or the relative frequency characterizing a chance process. Probabilities
D002760 Cholangiopancreatography, Endoscopic Retrograde Fiberoptic endoscopy designed for duodenal observation and cannulation of VATER'S AMPULLA, in order to visualize the pancreatic and biliary duct system by retrograde injection of contrast media. Endoscopic (Vater) papillotomy (SPHINCTEROTOMY, ENDOSCOPIC) may be performed during this procedure. ERCP,Endoscopic Retrograde Cholangiopancreatography,Retrograde Cholangiopancreatography, Endoscopic,Cholangiopancreatographies, Endoscopic Retrograde,Endoscopic Retrograde Cholangiopancreatographies,Retrograde Cholangiopancreatographies, Endoscopic
D002769 Cholelithiasis Presence or formation of GALLSTONES in the BILIARY TRACT, usually in the gallbladder (CHOLECYSTOLITHIASIS) or the common bile duct (CHOLEDOCHOLITHIASIS). Gallstone Disease,Cholelithiases,Gallstone Diseases
D005260 Female Females
D005500 Follow-Up Studies Studies in which individuals or populations are followed to assess the outcome of exposures, procedures, or effects of a characteristic, e.g., occurrence of disease. Followup Studies,Follow Up Studies,Follow-Up Study,Followup Study,Studies, Follow-Up,Studies, Followup,Study, Follow-Up,Study, Followup
D006801 Humans Members of the species Homo sapiens. Homo sapiens,Man (Taxonomy),Human,Man, Modern,Modern Man

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