Comparison of three different risk scoring systems in non-variceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding. 2004

L Camellini, and A Merighi, and C Pagnini, and F Azzolini, and S Guazzetti, and A Scarcelli, and F Manenti, and G P Rigo
Gastrointestinal Unit, Department of Internal Medicine, University of Modena and Reggio Emilia, Reggio Emilia, Italy. camellini.lorenzo@asmn.re.it

OBJECTIVE To prospectively validate in patients with non-variceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding three risk scoring systems (the Baylor College scoring system, the Rockall's risk scoring system and the Cedars-Sinai Medical Centre predictive index) previously proposed to be predictive of rebleeding/death after upper gastrointestinal bleeding. METHODS We calculated values of the scores for 343 patients, who underwent endoscopy after non-variceal upper gastrointestinal haemorrhage during the years 1997-1999. We compared the observed outcomes with the ones expected upon the original series contributed by the authors. Discriminative ability was evaluated by calculating the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. CONCLUSIONS Rockall's score accurately predicted rebleeding in low- and intermediate-risk categories (< 6), but not in high-risk patients. The rates of rebleeding were significantly higher than the ones predicted by the low-risk categories of either Cedars-Sinai index (< or = 2) or Baylor score (< or = 6). The predicted and the observed mortality was not significantly different throughout all the categories of Rockall's score, except for patients with a score of 4. All the scores had better discriminative ability for mortality than for rebleeding. The Rockall's score identifies a low-risk group of patients (Rockall's score < or = 2) for rebleeding and mortality.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D008297 Male Males
D008875 Middle Aged An adult aged 45 - 64 years. Middle Age
D011379 Prognosis A prediction of the probable outcome of a disease based on a individual's condition and the usual course of the disease as seen in similar situations. Prognostic Factor,Prognostic Factors,Factor, Prognostic,Factors, Prognostic,Prognoses
D011446 Prospective Studies Observation of a population for a sufficient number of persons over a sufficient number of years to generate incidence or mortality rates subsequent to the selection of the study group. Prospective Study,Studies, Prospective,Study, Prospective
D012008 Recurrence The return of a sign, symptom, or disease after a remission. Recrudescence,Relapse,Recrudescences,Recurrences,Relapses
D004632 Emergency Medical Services Services specifically designed, staffed, and equipped for the emergency care of patients. Emergency Care,Emergency Health Services,Emergicenters,Prehospital Emergency Care,Emergency Care, Prehospital,Emergency Services, Medical,Medical Services, Emergency,Services, Emergency Medical,Emergency Health Service,Emergency Medical Service,Emergency Service, Medical,Emergicenter,Health Service, Emergency,Health Services, Emergency,Medical Emergency Service,Medical Emergency Services,Medical Service, Emergency,Service, Emergency Health,Service, Emergency Medical,Service, Medical Emergency,Services, Emergency Health,Services, Medical Emergency
D005260 Female Females
D006471 Gastrointestinal Hemorrhage Bleeding in any segment of the GASTROINTESTINAL TRACT from ESOPHAGUS to RECTUM. Hematochezia,Hemorrhage, Gastrointestinal,Gastrointestinal Hemorrhages,Hematochezias
D006801 Humans Members of the species Homo sapiens. Homo sapiens,Man (Taxonomy),Human,Man, Modern,Modern Man
D000328 Adult A person having attained full growth or maturity. Adults are of 19 through 44 years of age. For a person between 19 and 24 years of age, YOUNG ADULT is available. Adults

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