Semiparametric estimation of time-dependent ROC curves for longitudinal marker data. 2004

Yingye Zheng, and Patrick J Heagerty
Division of Public Health Sciences, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center, 1100 Fairview Avenue North, Seattle, WA 98109, USA. yzheng@fhcrc.org

One approach to evaluating the strength of association between a longitudinal marker process and a key clinical event time is through predictive regression methods such as a time-dependent covariate hazard model. For example, a Cox model with time-varying covariates specifies the instantaneous risk of the event as a function of the time-varying marker and additional covariates. In this manuscript we explore a second complementary approach which characterizes the distribution of the marker as a function of both the measurement time and the ultimate event time. Our goal is to extend the standard diagnostic accuracy concepts of sensitivity and specificity so as to recognize explicitly both the timing of the marker measurement and the timing of disease. The accuracy of a longitudinal marker can be fully characterized using time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. We detail a semiparametric estimation method for time-dependent ROC curves that adopts a regression quantile approach for longitudinal data introduced by Heagerty and Pepe (1999, Applied Statistics, 48, 533-551). We extend the work of Heagerty and Pepe (1999, Applied Statistics, 48, 533-551) by developing asymptotic distribution theory for the ROC estimators where the distributional shape for the marker is allowed to depend on covariates. To illustrate our method, we analyze pulmonary function measurements among cystic fibrosis subjects and estimate ROC curves that assess how well the pulmonary function measurement can distinguish subjects that progress to death from subjects that remain alive. Comparing the results from our semiparametric analysis to a fully parametric method discussed by Etzioni et al. (1999, Medical Decision Making, 19, 242-251) suggests that the ability to relax distributional assumptions may be important in practice.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D008137 Longitudinal Studies Studies in which variables relating to an individual or group of individuals are assessed over a period of time. Bogalusa Heart Study,California Teachers Study,Framingham Heart Study,Jackson Heart Study,Longitudinal Survey,Tuskegee Syphilis Study,Bogalusa Heart Studies,California Teachers Studies,Framingham Heart Studies,Heart Studies, Bogalusa,Heart Studies, Framingham,Heart Studies, Jackson,Heart Study, Bogalusa,Heart Study, Framingham,Heart Study, Jackson,Jackson Heart Studies,Longitudinal Study,Longitudinal Surveys,Studies, Bogalusa Heart,Studies, California Teachers,Studies, Jackson Heart,Studies, Longitudinal,Study, Bogalusa Heart,Study, California Teachers,Study, Longitudinal,Survey, Longitudinal,Surveys, Longitudinal,Syphilis Studies, Tuskegee,Syphilis Study, Tuskegee,Teachers Studies, California,Teachers Study, California,Tuskegee Syphilis Studies
D008297 Male Males
D012044 Regression Analysis Procedures for finding the mathematical function which best describes the relationship between a dependent variable and one or more independent variables. In linear regression (see LINEAR MODELS) the relationship is constrained to be a straight line and LEAST-SQUARES ANALYSIS is used to determine the best fit. In logistic regression (see LOGISTIC MODELS) the dependent variable is qualitative rather than continuously variable and LIKELIHOOD FUNCTIONS are used to find the best relationship. In multiple regression, the dependent variable is considered to depend on more than a single independent variable. Regression Diagnostics,Statistical Regression,Analysis, Regression,Analyses, Regression,Diagnostics, Regression,Regression Analyses,Regression, Statistical,Regressions, Statistical,Statistical Regressions
D002648 Child A person 6 to 12 years of age. An individual 2 to 5 years old is CHILD, PRESCHOOL. Children
D002675 Child, Preschool A child between the ages of 2 and 5. Children, Preschool,Preschool Child,Preschool Children
D003550 Cystic Fibrosis An autosomal recessive genetic disease of the EXOCRINE GLANDS. It is caused by mutations in the gene encoding the CYSTIC FIBROSIS TRANSMEMBRANE CONDUCTANCE REGULATOR expressed in several organs including the LUNG, the PANCREAS, the BILIARY SYSTEM, and the SWEAT GLANDS. Cystic fibrosis is characterized by epithelial secretory dysfunction associated with ductal obstruction resulting in AIRWAY OBSTRUCTION; chronic RESPIRATORY INFECTIONS; PANCREATIC INSUFFICIENCY; maldigestion; salt depletion; and HEAT PROSTRATION. Mucoviscidosis,Cystic Fibrosis of Pancreas,Fibrocystic Disease of Pancreas,Pancreatic Cystic Fibrosis,Pulmonary Cystic Fibrosis,Cystic Fibrosis, Pancreatic,Cystic Fibrosis, Pulmonary,Fibrosis, Cystic,Pancreas Fibrocystic Disease,Pancreas Fibrocystic Diseases
D003627 Data Interpretation, Statistical Application of statistical procedures to analyze specific observed or assumed facts from a particular study. Data Analysis, Statistical,Data Interpretations, Statistical,Interpretation, Statistical Data,Statistical Data Analysis,Statistical Data Interpretation,Analyses, Statistical Data,Analysis, Statistical Data,Data Analyses, Statistical,Interpretations, Statistical Data,Statistical Data Analyses,Statistical Data Interpretations
D005260 Female Females
D005541 Forced Expiratory Volume Measure of the maximum amount of air that can be expelled in a given number of seconds during a FORCED VITAL CAPACITY determination . It is usually given as FEV followed by a subscript indicating the number of seconds over which the measurement is made, although it is sometimes given as a percentage of forced vital capacity. Forced Vital Capacity, Timed,Timed Vital Capacity,Vital Capacity, Timed,FEVt,Capacities, Timed Vital,Capacity, Timed Vital,Expiratory Volume, Forced,Expiratory Volumes, Forced,Forced Expiratory Volumes,Timed Vital Capacities,Vital Capacities, Timed,Volume, Forced Expiratory,Volumes, Forced Expiratory
D006801 Humans Members of the species Homo sapiens. Homo sapiens,Man (Taxonomy),Human,Man, Modern,Modern Man

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