Natural history of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia: a meta-analysis. 2005

Scott B Cantor, and E Neely Atkinson, and Marylou Cardenas-Turanzas, and J L Benedet, and Michele Follen, and Calum MacAulay
Department of Biostatistics and Applied Mathematics, The University of Texas M.D. Anderson Cancer Center, Houston, Texas77030-4009, USA. sbcantor@mdanderson.org

OBJECTIVE To determine the probabilities of transition of stages in the cervical cancer by conducting a meta-studies on the topic. METHODS We identified health states of interest in the natural history of cervical precancer, identified all possible papers that could meet selection criteria, developed relevance and acceptability criteria for inclusion, then thoroughly reviewed the selected studies. To determine the transition probability data we used a random effects model. We determined probabilities for 4 health state transitions. The 6-month mean predictive transition probability (95% confidence intervals with "prediction interval" in parentheses) for high grade squamous intraepithelial lesions (HSIL) to cancer was 0.0037 (0.00004, 0.03386), for low grade squamous intraepithelial lesions (LSIL) to HSIL was 0.0362 (0.00055, 0.23220), for HSIL to LSIL was 0.0282 (0.00027, 0.35782), and for LSIL to normal was 0.0740 (0.00119, 0.42672). CONCLUSIONS The transition probabilities between cervical cancer health states for 6-month intervals are small; however, the cumulative risk of cervical cancer is significant. Markers to identify the cervical precursors that will lead to the transition to cervical cancer are needed.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D011336 Probability The study of chance processes or the relative frequency characterizing a chance process. Probabilities
D002578 Uterine Cervical Dysplasia Abnormal development of immature squamous EPITHELIAL CELLS of the UTERINE CERVIX, a term used to describe premalignant cytological changes in the cervical EPITHELIUM. These atypical cells do not penetrate the epithelial BASEMENT MEMBRANE. Cervical Dysplasia,Cervical Intraepithelial Neoplasia,Cervix Dysplasia,Dysplasia of Cervix Uteri,Neoplasia, Cervical Intraepithelial,Cervical Intraepithelial Neoplasia, Grade III,Cervical Intraepithelial Neoplasms,Intraepithelial Neoplasia, Cervical,Cervical Dysplasia, Uterine,Cervical Dysplasias,Cervical Intraepithelial Neoplasm,Cervix Uteri Dysplasia,Cervix Uteri Dysplasias,Dysplasia, Cervical,Dysplasia, Cervix,Dysplasia, Uterine Cervical,Intraepithelial Neoplasm, Cervical,Intraepithelial Neoplasms, Cervical,Neoplasm, Cervical Intraepithelial,Neoplasms, Cervical Intraepithelial
D005260 Female Females
D006801 Humans Members of the species Homo sapiens. Homo sapiens,Man (Taxonomy),Human,Man, Modern,Modern Man
D016001 Confidence Intervals A range of values for a variable of interest, e.g., a rate, constructed so that this range has a specified probability of including the true value of the variable. Confidence Interval,Interval, Confidence,Intervals, Confidence
D030361 Papillomavirus Infections Neoplasms of the skin and mucous membranes caused by papillomaviruses. They are usually benign but some have a high risk for malignant progression. HPV Infection,Human Papillomavirus Infection,HPV Infections,Human Papillomavirus Infections,Papillomavirus Infection,Papillomavirus Infection, Human,Papillomavirus Infections, Human

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