"Yes", "No" or "Yes, but"? Multinomial modelling of NICE decision-making. 2006

Helen Angela Dakin, and Nancy J Devlin, and Isaac A O Odeyemi
Abacus International, 3-4 Market Square, Bicester, Oxon OX26 6AA, UK. helen.dakin@abacusint.com

The National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE) issues mandatory guidance on health technologies to the UK NHS, based on clinical evidence, cost-effectiveness and other considerations. However, the exact factors considered, their relative importance and tradeoffs between them are not made explicit. Previous research modelled NICE decisions as a binary choice (accept/reject) dependent on cost-effectiveness, amongst other variables. This paper proposes and tests an alternative model of decision-making that may better represent the "yes, but..." nature of many NICE decisions. Decisions were categorised as "recommended for routine use", "recommended for restricted use" or "not recommended". The NICE appraisal process was modelled as a single decision between the three categories. Multinomial logistic regression techniques were used to evaluate the impact of: quantity/quality of clinical evidence; cost-effectiveness; decision date; existence of alternative treatments; budget impact; technology type. Results suggest that interventions supported by more randomised trials are more likely to be recommended and endorsed for routine use. Higher cost-effectiveness ratios increased the likelihood of interventions being rejected rather than recommended for restricted use but did not significantly affect the decision between routine and restricted use. Pharmaceuticals, interventions appraised early in the NICE programme and those with more systematic reviews were also less likely to be rejected, while patient group submissions made a recommendation for routine rather than restricted use more likely. The presence of factors affecting the decision between routine and restricted use but not that between routine use and rejection suggests that modelling these three outcomes reflects NICE decision-making more closely than binary-choice analyses.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D003661 Decision Support Techniques Mathematical or statistical procedures used as aids in making a decision. They are frequently used in medical decision-making. Decision Analysis,Decision Modeling,Models, Decision Support,Analysis, Decision,Decision Aids,Decision Support Technics,Aid, Decision,Aids, Decision,Analyses, Decision,Decision Aid,Decision Analyses,Decision Support Model,Decision Support Models,Decision Support Technic,Decision Support Technique,Model, Decision Support,Modeling, Decision,Technic, Decision Support,Technics, Decision Support,Technique, Decision Support,Techniques, Decision Support
D006113 United Kingdom Country in northwestern Europe including Great Britain and the northern one-sixth of the island of Ireland, located between the North Sea and north Atlantic Ocean. The capital is London. Great Britain,Isle of Man
D013222 State Medicine A system of medical care regulated, controlled and financed by the government, in which the government assumes responsibility for the health needs of the population. National Health Service, British,Socialized Medicine,British Health Service, National,British National Health Service,Medicine, Socialized,Medicine, State,Service, British National Health
D013673 Technology Assessment, Biomedical Evaluation of biomedical technology in relation to cost, efficacy, utilization, etc., and its future impact on social, ethical, and legal systems. Assessment, Biomedical Technology,Assessment, Technology,Biomedical Technology Assessment,Technology Assessment,Technology Assessment, Health,Assessment, Health Technology,Assessments, Biomedical Technology,Assessments, Health Technology,Assessments, Technology,Biomedical Technology Assessments,Health Technology Assessment,Health Technology Assessments,Technology Assessments,Technology Assessments, Biomedical,Technology Assessments, Health
D016032 Randomized Controlled Trials as Topic Works about clinical trials that involve at least one test treatment and one control treatment, concurrent enrollment and follow-up of the test- and control-treated groups, and in which the treatments to be administered are selected by a random process, such as the use of a random-numbers table. Clinical Trials, Randomized,Controlled Clinical Trials, Randomized,Trials, Randomized Clinical

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