Biomaterial Database

Future costs for long-term care: cost projections for long-term care for older people in the United Kingdom. 2006

Martin Karlsson, and Les Mayhew, and Robert Plumb, and Ben Rickayzen

Faculty of Actuarial Science and Statistics Cass Business School, City University, London, UK. martin.karlsson@iue.it

The purpose of this paper is to analyse the future sustainability of the UK system for provision of long-term care (LTC) due to changes in demography and health status among the older people. It considers how demand for LTC will evolve and to what extent there will be sufficient supply to meet demand. For formal care, this requires an estimate of how much the public purses, and hence taxpayers, will be burdened with LTC costs. For informal care, it involves estimating whether there will be enough carers if current patterns of provision were to continue. The results show that demand for long-term care will start to take off 10 years from now, and reach a peak somewhere after 2040. The research finds that the most significant increase will be in demand for informal care, where the number of recipients are projected to increase from 2.2 million today to 3.0 million in 2050. Relative increases will be similar in all care settings, amounting to between 30 and 50% compared with the levels today; however, the most noticeable increase will be in demand for formal home care, which is projected to be 60% above current levels by 2040. Total expenditure on formal long-term care will increase from 11 billion pounds per year today to approximately 15 billion pounds per year by 2040 (in 2001 prices). Expressed in taxation terms the effective contribution rate will increase from around 1.0% of total wages today to 1.3% in 2050. Availability of informal carers is potentially a big problem, but the extent of the problem is very sensitive to the assumptions made concerning health improvements and care-giving patterns.

UI	MeSH Term	Description	Entries
D008134	Long-Term Care	Care over an extended period, usually for a chronic condition or disability, requiring periodic, intermittent, or continuous care.	Care, Long-Term,Long Term Care
D008297	Male		Males
D008875	Middle Aged	An adult aged 45 - 64 years.	Middle Age
D009735	Nursing Homes	Facilities which provide nursing supervision and limited medical care to persons who do not require hospitalization.	Homes, Nursing,Nursing Home
D002648	Child	A person 6 to 12 years of age. An individual 2 to 5 years old is CHILD, PRESCHOOL.	Children
D003365	Costs and Cost Analysis	Absolute, comparative, or differential costs pertaining to services, institutions, resources, etc., or the analysis and study of these costs.	Affordability,Analysis, Cost,Cost,Cost Analysis,Cost Comparison,Cost Measures,Cost-Minimization Analysis,Costs and Cost Analyses,Costs, Cost Analysis,Pricing,Affordabilities,Analyses, Cost,Analyses, Cost-Minimization,Analysis, Cost-Minimization,Comparison, Cost,Comparisons, Cost,Cost Analyses,Cost Comparisons,Cost Measure,Cost Minimization Analysis,Cost, Cost Analysis,Cost-Minimization Analyses,Costs,Measure, Cost,Measures, Cost
D005102	Health Expenditures	The amounts spent by individuals, groups, nations, or private or public organizations for total health care and/or its various components. These amounts may or may not be equivalent to the actual costs (HEALTH CARE COSTS) and may or may not be shared among the patient, insurers, and/or employers.	Expenditure,Expenditures, Health,Health Expenditure,Out Of Pocket Expenditure,Out-of-Pocket Cost,Out-of-Pocket Expense,Out-of-Pocket Payment,Expenditures,Expenditures, Direct,Expenditures, Indirect,Expenditures, Out-of-Pocket,Out-of Pocket Expenditures,Out-of-Pocket Costs,Out-of-Pocket Expenses,Out-of-Pocket Payments,Out-of-Pocket Spending,Cost, Out-of-Pocket,Costs, Out-of-Pocket,Direct Expenditure,Direct Expenditures,Expenditure, Direct,Expenditure, Health,Expenditure, Indirect,Expenditure, Out-of Pocket,Expenditure, Out-of-Pocket,Expenditures, Out of Pocket,Expenditures, Out-of Pocket,Expense, Out-of-Pocket,Expenses, Out-of-Pocket,Indirect Expenditure,Indirect Expenditures,Out of Pocket Cost,Out of Pocket Costs,Out of Pocket Expenditures,Out of Pocket Expense,Out of Pocket Expenses,Out of Pocket Payment,Out of Pocket Payments,Out of Pocket Spending,Out-of Pocket Expenditure,Out-of-Pocket Expenditure,Out-of-Pocket Expenditures,Payment, Out-of-Pocket,Payments, Out-of-Pocket,Spending, Out-of-Pocket
D005260	Female		Females
D005544	Forecasting	The prediction or projection of the nature of future problems or existing conditions based upon the extrapolation or interpretation of existing scientific data or by the application of scientific methodology.	Futurology,Projections and Predictions,Future,Predictions and Projections
D006113	United Kingdom	Country in northwestern Europe including Great Britain and the northern one-sixth of the island of Ireland, located between the North Sea and north Atlantic Ocean. The capital is London.	Great Britain,Isle of Man