Biomaterial Database

Estimates of the cancer burden in Europe from radioactive fallout from the Chernobyl accident. 2006

Elisabeth Cardis, and Daniel Krewski, and Mathieu Boniol, and Vladimir Drozdovitch, and Sarah C Darby, and Ethel S Gilbert, and Suminori Akiba, and Jacques Benichou, and Jacques Ferlay, and Sara Gandini, and Catherine Hill, and Geoffrey Howe, and Ausrele Kesminiene, and Mirjana Moser, and Marie Sanchez, and Hans Storm, and Laurent Voisin, and Peter Boyle

International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon, France. cardis@iarc.fr

The Chernobyl accident, which occurred April 26, 1986, resulted in a large release of radionuclides, which were deposited over a very wide area, particularly in Europe. Although an increased risk of thyroid cancer in exposed children has been clearly demonstrated in the most contaminated regions, the impact of the accident on the risk of other cancers as well as elsewhere in Europe is less clear. The objective of the present study was to evaluate the human cancer burden in Europe as a whole from radioactive fallout from the accident. Average country- and region-specific whole-body and thyroid doses from Chernobyl were estimated using new dosimetric models and radiological data. Numbers of cancer cases and deaths possibly attributable to radiation from Chernobyl were estimated, applying state-of-the-art risk models derived from studies of other irradiated populations. Simultaneously, trends in cancer incidence and mortality were examined over time and by dose level. The risk projections suggest that by now Chernobyl may have caused about 1,000 cases of thyroid cancer and 4,000 cases of other cancers in Europe, representing about 0.01% of all incident cancers since the accident. Models predict that by 2065 about 16,000 (95% UI 3,400-72,000) cases of thyroid cancer and 25,000 (95% UI 11,000-59,000) cases of other cancers may be expected due to radiation from the accident, whereas several hundred million cancer cases are expected from other causes. Although these estimates are subject to considerable uncertainty, they provide an indication of the order of magnitude of the possible impact of the Chernobyl accident. It is unlikely that the cancer burden from the largest radiological accident to date could be detected by monitoring national cancer statistics. Indeed, results of analyses of time trends in cancer incidence and mortality in Europe do not, at present, indicate any increase in cancer rates -- other than of thyroid cancer in the most contaminated regions -- that can be clearly attributed to radiation from the Chernobyl accident.

UI	MeSH Term	Description	Entries
D007223	Infant	A child between 1 and 23 months of age.	Infants
D007231	Infant, Newborn	An infant during the first 28 days after birth.	Neonate,Newborns,Infants, Newborn,Neonates,Newborn,Newborn Infant,Newborn Infants
D008297	Male		Males
D008875	Middle Aged	An adult aged 45 - 64 years.	Middle Age
D009026	Mortality	All deaths reported in a given population.	CFR Case Fatality Rate,Crude Death Rate,Crude Mortality Rate,Death Rate,Age Specific Death Rate,Age-Specific Death Rate,Case Fatality Rate,Decline, Mortality,Determinants, Mortality,Differential Mortality,Excess Mortality,Mortality Decline,Mortality Determinants,Mortality Rate,Mortality, Differential,Mortality, Excess,Age-Specific Death Rates,Case Fatality Rates,Crude Death Rates,Crude Mortality Rates,Death Rate, Age-Specific,Death Rate, Crude,Death Rates,Determinant, Mortality,Differential Mortalities,Excess Mortalities,Mortalities,Mortality Declines,Mortality Determinant,Mortality Rate, Crude,Mortality Rates,Rate, Age-Specific Death,Rate, Case Fatality,Rate, Crude Death,Rate, Crude Mortality,Rate, Death,Rate, Mortality,Rates, Case Fatality
D009381	Neoplasms, Radiation-Induced	Tumors, cancer or other neoplasms produced by exposure to ionizing or non-ionizing radiation.	Radiation-Induced Cancer,Cancer, Radiation-Induced,Radiation-Induced Neoplasms,Cancer, Radiation Induced,Cancers, Radiation-Induced,Neoplasm, Radiation-Induced,Neoplasms, Radiation Induced,Radiation Induced Cancer,Radiation Induced Neoplasms,Radiation-Induced Cancers,Radiation-Induced Neoplasm
D011847	Radioactive Fallout	The material that descends to the earth or water well beyond the site of a surface or subsurface nuclear explosion. (McGraw-Hill Dictionary of Chemical and Technical Terms, 4th ed)	Fallout, Radioactive,Fallouts, Radioactive,Radioactive Fallouts
D002648	Child	A person 6 to 12 years of age. An individual 2 to 5 years old is CHILD, PRESCHOOL.	Children
D002675	Child, Preschool	A child between the ages of 2 and 5.	Children, Preschool,Preschool Child,Preschool Children
D005060	Europe	The continent north of AFRICA, west of ASIA and east of the ATLANTIC OCEAN.	Northern Europe,Southern Europe,Western Europe