Nonparametric estimation of natural selection on a quantitative trait using mark-recapture data. 2006

Olivier Gimenez, and Rita Covas, and Charles R Brown, and Mark D Anderson, and Mary Bomberger Brown, and Thomas Lenormand
Institute of Mathematics, Statistics and Actuarial Sciences, University of Kent, Canterbury, England. olivier.gimenez@cefe.cnrs.fr

Assessing natural selection on a phenotypic trait in wild populations is of primary importance for evolutionary ecologists. To cope with the imperfect detection of individuals inherent to monitoring in the wild, we develop a nonparametric method for evaluating the form of natural selection on a quantitative trait using mark-recapture data. Our approach uses penalized splines to achieve flexibility in exploring the form of natural selection by avoiding the need to specify an a priori parametric function. If needed, it can help in suggesting a new parametric model. We employ Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling in a Bayesian framework to estimate model parameters. We illustrate our approach using data for a wild population of sociable weavers (Philetairus socius) to investigate survival in relation to body mass. In agreement with previous parametric analyses, we found that lighter individuals showed a reduction in survival. However, the survival function was not symmetric, indicating that body mass might not be under stabilizing selection as suggested previously.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D008390 Markov Chains A stochastic process such that the conditional probability distribution for a state at any future instant, given the present state, is unaffected by any additional knowledge of the past history of the system. Markov Process,Markov Chain,Chain, Markov,Chains, Markov,Markov Processes,Process, Markov,Processes, Markov
D008954 Models, Biological Theoretical representations that simulate the behavior or activity of biological processes or diseases. For disease models in living animals, DISEASE MODELS, ANIMAL is available. Biological models include the use of mathematical equations, computers, and other electronic equipment. Biological Model,Biological Models,Model, Biological,Models, Biologic,Biologic Model,Biologic Models,Model, Biologic
D009010 Monte Carlo Method In statistics, a technique for numerically approximating the solution of a mathematical problem by studying the distribution of some random variable, often generated by a computer. The name alludes to the randomness characteristic of the games of chance played at the gambling casinos in Monte Carlo. (From Random House Unabridged Dictionary, 2d ed, 1993) Method, Monte Carlo
D000818 Animals Unicellular or multicellular, heterotrophic organisms, that have sensation and the power of voluntary movement. Under the older five kingdom paradigm, Animalia was one of the kingdoms. Under the modern three domain model, Animalia represents one of the many groups in the domain EUKARYOTA. Animal,Metazoa,Animalia
D001499 Bayes Theorem A theorem in probability theory named for Thomas Bayes (1702-1761). In epidemiology, it is used to obtain the probability of disease in a group of people with some characteristic on the basis of the overall rate of that disease and of the likelihood of that characteristic in healthy and diseased individuals. The most familiar application is in clinical decision analysis where it is used for estimating the probability of a particular diagnosis given the appearance of some symptoms or test result. Bayesian Analysis,Bayesian Estimation,Bayesian Forecast,Bayesian Method,Bayesian Prediction,Analysis, Bayesian,Bayesian Approach,Approach, Bayesian,Approachs, Bayesian,Bayesian Approachs,Estimation, Bayesian,Forecast, Bayesian,Method, Bayesian,Prediction, Bayesian,Theorem, Bayes
D012641 Selection, Genetic Differential and non-random reproduction of different genotypes, operating to alter the gene frequencies within a population. Natural Selection,Genetic Selection,Selection, Natural
D015996 Survival Rate The proportion of survivors in a group, e.g., of patients, studied and followed over a period, or the proportion of persons in a specified group alive at the beginning of a time interval who survive to the end of the interval. It is often studied using life table methods. Cumulative Survival Rate,Mean Survival Time,Cumulative Survival Rates,Mean Survival Times,Rate, Cumulative Survival,Rate, Survival,Rates, Cumulative Survival,Rates, Survival,Survival Rate, Cumulative,Survival Rates,Survival Rates, Cumulative,Survival Time, Mean,Survival Times, Mean,Time, Mean Survival,Times, Mean Survival
D020308 Songbirds PASSERIFORMES of the suborder, Oscines, in which the flexor tendons of the toes are separate, and the lower syrinx has 4 to 9 pairs of tensor muscles inserted at both ends of the tracheal half rings. They include many commonly recognized birds such as CROWS; FINCHES; robins; SPARROWS; and SWALLOWS. Eremophila alpestris,Flycatchers,Horned Lark,Oscines,Robins,Thrushes,Turdidae,Wrens,Troglodytidae,Troglodytinae,Warblers,Flycatcher,Horned Larks,Lark, Horned,Larks, Horned,Oscine,Robin,Songbird,Warbler,Wren

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