Modeling left-turn crash occurrence at signalized intersections by conflicting patterns. 2008

Xuesong Wang, and Mohamed Abdel-Aty
Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering, University of Central Florida, Orlando, FL 32816-2450, United States.

In order to better understand the underlying crash mechanisms, left-turn crashes occurring at 197 four-legged signalized intersections over 6 years were classified into nine patterns based on vehicle maneuvers and then were assigned to intersection approaches. Crash frequency of each pattern was modeled at the approach level by mainly using Generalized Estimating Equations (GEE) with the Negative Binomial as the link function to account for the correlation among the crash data. GEE with a binomial logit link function was also applied for patterns with fewer crashes. The Cumulative Residuals test shows that, for correlated left-turn crashes, GEE models usually outperformed basic Negative Binomial models. The estimation results show that there are obvious differences in the factors that cause the occurrence of different left-turn collision patterns. For example, for each pattern, the traffic flows to which the colliding vehicles belong are identified to be significant. The width of the crossing distance (represented by the number of through lanes on the opposing approach of the left-turning traffic) is associated with more left-turn traffic colliding with opposing through traffic (Pattern 5), but with less left-turning traffic colliding with near-side crossing through traffic (Pattern 8). The safety effectiveness of the left-turning signal is not consistent for different crash patterns; "protected" phasing is correlated with fewer Pattern 5 crashes, but with more Pattern 8 crashes. The study indicates that in order to develop efficient countermeasures for left-turn crashes and improve safety at signalized intersections, left-turn crashes should be considered in different patterns.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D008960 Models, Psychological Theoretical representations that simulate psychological processes and/or social processes. These include the use of mathematical equations, computers, and other electronic equipment. Model, Mental,Model, Psychological,Models, Mental,Models, Psychologic,Psychological Models,Mental Model,Mental Models,Model, Psychologic,Psychologic Model,Psychologic Models,Psychological Model
D010364 Pattern Recognition, Visual Mental process to visually perceive a critical number of facts (the pattern), such as characters, shapes, displays, or designs. Recognition, Visual Pattern,Visual Pattern Recognition
D004779 Environment Design The structuring of the environment to permit or promote specific patterns of behavior. Design, Environment,Healthy Places,Designs, Environment,Environment Designs,Healthy Place
D005431 Florida State bounded on east by the Atlantic Ocean, on the south by the Gulf of Mexico, on the west by Alabama and on the north by Alabama and Georgia.
D006801 Humans Members of the species Homo sapiens. Homo sapiens,Man (Taxonomy),Human,Man, Modern,Modern Man
D000063 Accidents, Traffic Accidents on streets, roads, and highways involving drivers, passengers, pedestrians, or vehicles. Traffic accidents refer to AUTOMOBILES (passenger cars, buses, and trucks), BICYCLING, and MOTORCYCLES but not OFF-ROAD MOTOR VEHICLES; RAILROADS nor snowmobiles. Traffic Collisions,Traffic Crashes,Traffic Accidents,Accident, Traffic,Collision, Traffic,Collisions, Traffic,Crashes, Traffic,Traffic Accident,Traffic Collision
D000465 Algorithms A procedure consisting of a sequence of algebraic formulas and/or logical steps to calculate or determine a given task. Algorithm
D001334 Automobile Driving The effect of environmental or physiological factors on the driver and driving ability. Included are driving fatigue, and the effect of drugs, disease, and physical disabilities on driving. Automobile Drivings,Driving, Automobile,Drivings, Automobile
D012307 Risk Factors An aspect of personal behavior or lifestyle, environmental exposure, inborn or inherited characteristic, which, based on epidemiological evidence, is known to be associated with a health-related condition considered important to prevent. Health Correlates,Risk Factor Scores,Risk Scores,Social Risk Factors,Population at Risk,Populations at Risk,Correlates, Health,Factor, Risk,Factor, Social Risk,Factors, Social Risk,Risk Factor,Risk Factor Score,Risk Factor, Social,Risk Factors, Social,Risk Score,Score, Risk,Score, Risk Factor,Social Risk Factor
D016010 Binomial Distribution The probability distribution associated with two mutually exclusive outcomes; used to model cumulative incidence rates and prevalence rates. The Bernoulli distribution is a special case of binomial distribution. Bernoulli Distribution,Negative Binomial Distribution,Binomial Distribution, Negative,Binomial Distributions,Binomial Distributions, Negative,Distribution, Bernoulli,Distribution, Binomial,Distribution, Negative Binomial,Distributions, Binomial,Distributions, Negative Binomial,Negative Binomial Distributions

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