Population viability analysis on domestic horse breeds (Equus caballus). 2009

J P Thirstrup, and L A Bach, and V Loeschcke, and C Pertoldi
Department of Biological Sciences, Ecology and Genetics, University of Aarhus, Bldg. 1540, DK-8000 C, Denmark.

In this study, we performed a population viability analysis on 3 domestic horse breeds (Equus caballus) of Danish origin, namely, the Frederiksborg, the Knabstrupper, and the Jutland breeds. Because of their small population sizes, these breeds are considered endangered. The Vortex software simulation package was used for the population viability analysis. First, we investigated the future viability of these breeds based on present demographic and environmental parameters. Second, a sensitivity analysis revealed the most important variables for the viability of these breeds. Third, we examined management scenarios in which one of the studbooks was closed. According to the Vortex analysis, 2 of the breeds (Knabstrupper and Jutland) will persist for the next 200 yr, whereas the smaller breed (Frederiksborg) could become extinct within 40 yr. The sensitivity analyses indicated that the variables concerning reproduction of the mares had the greatest impact, with the number of mares actively breeding being the most influential on the population forecasts. The results suggest that closing the Knabstrupper studbooks can be done only if increasing the number of mares actively breeding counteracts the loss of genetic variation attributable to such a management strategy. It is recommended, based on these results, that the number of Frederiksborg and Knabstrupper mares actively breeding must be increased to approximately 30% in the 2 breeds that are presently using only 13%, while leaving the third (Frederiksborg ) at its present 30% level. Monitoring of the breeds in the future, however, may be exploited to adjust the breeding strategies. We suggest that the large amount of data required by Vortex makes it very useful for analyzing domestic animals because of the comprehensive data material often available. The results of this analysis accord with other studies on the Prezwalski horse, indicating robustness in the parameter sensitivity for horses.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D007178 Inbreeding The mating of plants or non-human animals which are closely related genetically. Backcrossing,Half-Sib Mating,Sib Mating,Genetic Inbreeding,Backcrossings,Genetic Inbreedings,Half Sib Mating,Half-Sib Matings,Inbreeding, Genetic,Mating, Half-Sib,Mating, Sib,Matings, Half-Sib,Matings, Sib,Sib Matings
D008297 Male Males
D008957 Models, Genetic Theoretical representations that simulate the behavior or activity of genetic processes or phenomena. They include the use of mathematical equations, computers, and other electronic equipment. Genetic Models,Genetic Model,Model, Genetic
D011156 Population Density Number of individuals in a population relative to space. Overpopulation,Population Size,Underpopulation,Densities, Population,Density, Population,Population Densities,Population Sizes
D001947 Breeding The production of offspring by selective mating or HYBRIDIZATION, GENETIC in animals or plants. Breedings
D003198 Computer Simulation Computer-based representation of physical systems and phenomena such as chemical processes. Computational Modeling,Computational Modelling,Computer Models,In silico Modeling,In silico Models,In silico Simulation,Models, Computer,Computerized Models,Computer Model,Computer Simulations,Computerized Model,In silico Model,Model, Computer,Model, Computerized,Model, In silico,Modeling, Computational,Modeling, In silico,Modelling, Computational,Simulation, Computer,Simulation, In silico,Simulations, Computer
D005260 Female Females
D006736 Horses Large, hoofed mammals of the family EQUIDAE. Horses are active day and night with most of the day spent seeking and consuming food. Feeding peaks occur in the early morning and late afternoon, and there are several daily periods of rest. Equus caballus,Equus przewalskii,Horse, Domestic,Domestic Horse,Domestic Horses,Horse,Horses, Domestic
D000818 Animals Unicellular or multicellular, heterotrophic organisms, that have sensation and the power of voluntary movement. Under the older five kingdom paradigm, Animalia was one of the kingdoms. Under the modern three domain model, Animalia represents one of the many groups in the domain EUKARYOTA. Animal,Metazoa,Animalia
D000822 Animal Husbandry The science of breeding, feeding and care of domestic animals; includes housing and nutrition. Animal Husbandries,Husbandries, Animal,Husbandry, Animal

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