Modeling the global levels and distribution of polychlorinated biphenyls in air under a climate change scenario. 2009

Lara Lamon, and Harald Von Waldow, and Matthew Macleod, and Martin Scheringer, and Antonio Marcomini, and Konrad Hungerbühler
CMCC, Euro-Mediterranean Centre for Climate Change, Via Augusto Imperatore 16, 73100 Lecce, Italy.

We used the multimedia chemical fate model BETR Global to evaluate changes in the global distribution of two polychlorinated biphenyls, PCB 28 and PCB 153, under the influence of climate change. This was achieved by defining two climate scenarios based on results from a general circulation model, one scenario representing the last twenty years of the 20th century (20CE scenario) and another representing the global climate under the assumption of strong future greenhouse gas emissions (A2 scenario). The two climate scenarios are defined by four groups of environmental parameters: (1) temperature in the planetary boundary layer and the free atmosphere, (2) wind speeds and directions in the atmosphere, (3) current velocities and directions in the surface mixed layer of the oceans, and (4) rate and geographical pattern of precipitation. As a fifth parameter in our scenarios, we considerthe effect of temperature on primary volatilization emissions of PCBs. Comparison of dynamic model results using environmental parameters from the 20CE scenario against historical long-term monitoring data of concentrations of PCB 28 and PCB 153 in air from 16 different sites shows satisfactory agreement between modeled and measured PCBs concentrations. The 20CE scenario and A2 scenario were compared using steady-state calculations and assuming the same source characteristics of PCBs. Temperature differences between the two scenarios is the dominant factor that determines the difference in PCB concentrations in air. The higher temperatures in the A2 scenario drive increased primary and secondary volatilization emissions of PCBs, and enhance transport from temperate regions to the Arctic. The largest relative increase in concentrations of both PCB congeners in air under the A2 scenario occurs in the high Arctic and the remote Pacific Ocean. Generally, higher wind speeds under the A2 scenario result in more efficient intercontinental transport of PCB 28 and PCB 153 compared to the 20CE scenario. Our modeling indicates that in a future impacted by climate change, we can expectincreased volatilization emissions and increased mobility of persistent organic pollutants with properties similar to those of PCBs.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D008962 Models, Theoretical Theoretical representations that simulate the behavior or activity of systems, processes, or phenomena. They include the use of mathematical equations, computers, and other electronic equipment. Experimental Model,Experimental Models,Mathematical Model,Model, Experimental,Models (Theoretical),Models, Experimental,Models, Theoretic,Theoretical Study,Mathematical Models,Model (Theoretical),Model, Mathematical,Model, Theoretical,Models, Mathematical,Studies, Theoretical,Study, Theoretical,Theoretical Model,Theoretical Models,Theoretical Studies
D011078 Polychlorinated Biphenyls Industrial products consisting of a mixture of chlorinated biphenyl congeners and isomers. These compounds are highly lipophilic and tend to accumulate in fat stores of animals. Many of these compounds are considered toxic and potential environmental pollutants. PCBs,Polychlorinated Biphenyl,Polychlorobiphenyl Compounds,Biphenyl, Polychlorinated,Biphenyls, Polychlorinated,Compounds, Polychlorobiphenyl
D002980 Climate The longterm manifestations of WEATHER. (McGraw-Hill Dictionary of Scientific and Technical Terms, 6th ed) Climates
D004784 Environmental Monitoring The monitoring of the level of toxins, chemical pollutants, microbial contaminants, or other harmful substances in the environment (soil, air, and water), workplace, or in the bodies of people and animals present in that environment. Monitoring, Environmental,Environmental Surveillance,Surveillance, Environmental
D004785 Environmental Pollutants Substances or energies, for example heat or light, which when introduced into the air, water, or land threaten life or health of individuals or ECOSYSTEMS. Environmental Pollutant,Pollutant,Pollutants,Pollutants, Environmental,Pollutant, Environmental
D005843 Geography The science dealing with the earth and its life, especially the description of land, sea, and air and the distribution of plant and animal life, including humanity and human industries with reference to the mutual relations of these elements. (From Webster, 3d ed) Factor, Geographic,Factors, Geographic,Geographic Factor,Geographic Factors,Geography, Human,Human Geography
D001272 Atmosphere The gaseous envelope surrounding a planet or similar body. (From Random House Unabridged Dictionary, 2d ed) Atmospheres
D012621 Seasons Divisions of the year according to some regularly recurrent phenomena usually astronomical or climatic. (From McGraw-Hill Dictionary of Scientific and Technical Terms, 6th ed) Seasonal Variation,Season,Seasonal Variations,Variation, Seasonal,Variations, Seasonal
D013997 Time Factors Elements of limited time intervals, contributing to particular results or situations. Time Series,Factor, Time,Time Factor
D014835 Volatilization A phase transition from liquid state to gas state, which is affected by Raoult's law. It can be accomplished by fractional distillation. Vaporization,Volatility

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