Mortality from pandemic A/H1N1 2009 influenza in England: public health surveillance study. 2009

Liam J Donaldson, and Paul D Rutter, and Benjamin M Ellis, and Felix E C Greaves, and Oliver T Mytton, and Richard G Pebody, and Iain E Yardley
Department of Health, Richmond House, London SW1A 2NS. liam.donaldson@dh.gsi.gov.uk

OBJECTIVE To establish mortality from pandemic A/H1N1 2009 influenza up to 8 November 2009. METHODS Investigation of all reported deaths related to pandemic A/H1N1 in England. METHODS Mandatory reporting systems established in acute hospitals and primary care. METHODS Physicians responsible for the patient. METHODS Numbers of deaths from influenza combined with mid-range estimates of numbers of cases of influenza to calculate age specific case fatality rates. Underlying conditions, time course of illness, and antiviral treatment. RESULTS With the official mid-range estimate for incidence of pandemic A/H1N1, the overall estimated case fatality rate was 26 (range 11-66) per 100 000. It was lowest for children aged 5-14 (11 (range 3-36) per 100 000) and highest for those aged >or=65 (980 (range 300-3200) per 100 000). In the 138 people in whom the confirmed cause of death was pandemic A/H1N1, the median age was 39 (interquartile range 17-57). Two thirds of patients who died (92, 67%) would now be eligible for the first phase of vaccination in England. Fifty (36%) had no, or only mild, pre-existing illness. Most patients (108, 78%) had been prescribed antiviral drugs, but of these, 82 (76%) did not receive them within the first 48 hours of illness. CONCLUSIONS Viewed statistically, mortality in this pandemic compares favourably with 20th century influenza pandemics. A lower population impact than previous pandemics, however, is not a justification for public health inaction. Our data support the priority vaccination of high risk groups. We observed delayed antiviral use in most fatal cases, which suggests an opportunity to reduce deaths by making timely antiviral treatment available, although the lack of a control group limits the ability to extrapolate from this observation. Given that a substantial minority of deaths occur in previously healthy people, there is a case for extending the vaccination programme and for continuing to make early antiviral treatment widely available.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D007251 Influenza, Human An acute viral infection in humans involving the respiratory tract. It is marked by inflammation of the NASAL MUCOSA; the PHARYNX; and conjunctiva, and by headache and severe, often generalized, myalgia. Grippe,Human Flu,Human Influenza,Influenza in Humans,Influenza,Flu, Human,Human Influenzas,Influenza in Human,Influenzas,Influenzas, Human
D008297 Male Males
D008875 Middle Aged An adult aged 45 - 64 years. Middle Age
D012111 Residence Characteristics Elements of residence that characterize a population. They are applicable in determining need for and utilization of health services. Community,Domicile,Living Arrangements,Neighborhood,Place of Birth,Residential Selection,Arrangement, Living,Birth Place,Communities,Domiciles,Living Arrangement,Neighborhoods,Residence Characteristic
D002423 Cause of Death Factors which produce cessation of all vital bodily functions. They can be analyzed from an epidemiologic viewpoint. Causes of Death,Death Cause,Death Causes
D002648 Child A person 6 to 12 years of age. An individual 2 to 5 years old is CHILD, PRESCHOOL. Children
D002675 Child, Preschool A child between the ages of 2 and 5. Children, Preschool,Preschool Child,Preschool Children
D004196 Disease Outbreaks Sudden increase in the incidence of a disease. The concept includes EPIDEMICS and PANDEMICS. Outbreaks,Infectious Disease Outbreaks,Disease Outbreak,Disease Outbreak, Infectious,Disease Outbreaks, Infectious,Infectious Disease Outbreak,Outbreak, Disease,Outbreak, Infectious Disease,Outbreaks, Disease,Outbreaks, Infectious Disease
D004739 England A part of Great Britain within the United Kingdom.
D005260 Female Females

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