Predicted geographic ranges for North American sylvatic Trichinella species. 2009

Penny M Masuoka, and Robin Burke, and Michelle Colaccico, and Hugo Razuri, and Dolores Hill, and K Darwin Murrell
Department of Preventive Medicine and Biometrics, Uniformed Services, University of the Health Sciences, Bethesda, Maryland 20814, USA. pmasuoka@usuhs.mil

Because of a lack of comprehensive surveys, the geographic distributions of the North American species of encapsulating Trichinella (T. nativa and its variant T6, T. murrelli, and T. spiralis) are poorly characterized in detail. These species are potentially zoonotic; therefore, biogeographic information is critical to monitoring their status and any distribution changes due to climatic and man-made environmental impacts. The maximum entropy (Maxent) program was used to model predicted ranges for these sylvatic Trichinella spp., using a limited number of available location records with confirmed species identifications collected over 55 yr throughout North America. The resulting prediction models were shown to be robust, and the species maps created are presented. The predicted range of T. nativa is primarily north of the 48 degrees - 52 degrees latitudes, overlapping the Tundra, sub-Arctic, and Warm Continental eco-regions. Its sympatric genotypic variant, T6, has a predicted range covering primarily the sub-Arctic and mountainous Temperate Steppe eco-regions, the latter extending below 48 degrees N latitude. In the east, the T6 range includes the Warm Continental and the mountainous Hot Continental eco-regions; the T6 range is also predicted to extend to the Sierra Madre Mountains of Mexico. The most probable range of T. murrelli is centered in the Midwest within the Hot Continental and Prairie eco-regions, with an extension southward to the Subtropical and Tropical/Subtropical Steppe and Desert eco-regions. In the west, it exists in a restricted range characterized as mountainous Mediterranean. The most probable distribution of sylvatic T. spiralis is along the humid east North American coast (Hot Continental south to Subtropical), and along the coast of northwest North America (Marine) to Alaska (subArctic and Tundra). Its most southerly range extends into central Mexico (Tropical/Subtropical Desert). The difference in relative freeze resistance between T. nativa/T6 and T. murrelli undoubtedly accounts for much of this geographic separation. However, the factors responsible for the absence of a more southerly distribution of T. nativa are not obvious, given the overlap in host range with T. murrelli. The maximum July temperature appears to have a significant effect on this distribution pattern. The results of the model building highlight subjects for future research on the biotic and abiotic factors important in determining Trichinella spp. distributions and directions for model validation research.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D008954 Models, Biological Theoretical representations that simulate the behavior or activity of biological processes or diseases. For disease models in living animals, DISEASE MODELS, ANIMAL is available. Biological models include the use of mathematical equations, computers, and other electronic equipment. Biological Model,Biological Models,Model, Biological,Models, Biologic,Biologic Model,Biologic Models,Model, Biologic
D009656 North America The northern continent of the Western Hemisphere, extending northward from the Colombia-Panama border and including CENTRAL AMERICA, MEXICO, Caribbean area, the UNITED STATES, CANADA and GREENLAND. The term often refers more narrowly to MEXICO, continental UNITED STATES, AND CANADA. Northern America
D011891 Rain Water particles that fall from the ATMOSPHERE. Rains
D002335 Carnivora An order of MAMMALS, usually flesh eaters with appropriate dentition. Suborders include the terrestrial carnivores Fissipedia, and the aquatic carnivores CANIFORMIA.
D004777 Environment The external elements and conditions which surround, influence, and affect the life and development of an organism or population. Environmental Impact,Environmental Impacts,Impact, Environmental,Impacts, Environmental,Environments
D005843 Geography The science dealing with the earth and its life, especially the description of land, sea, and air and the distribution of plant and animal life, including humanity and human industries with reference to the mutual relations of these elements. (From Webster, 3d ed) Factor, Geographic,Factors, Geographic,Geographic Factor,Geographic Factors,Geography, Human,Human Geography
D000818 Animals Unicellular or multicellular, heterotrophic organisms, that have sensation and the power of voluntary movement. Under the older five kingdom paradigm, Animalia was one of the kingdoms. Under the modern three domain model, Animalia represents one of the many groups in the domain EUKARYOTA. Animal,Metazoa,Animalia
D012372 ROC Curve A graphic means for assessing the ability of a screening test to discriminate between healthy and diseased persons; may also be used in other studies, e.g., distinguishing stimuli responses as to a faint stimuli or nonstimuli. ROC Analysis,Receiver Operating Characteristic,Analysis, ROC,Analyses, ROC,Characteristic, Receiver Operating,Characteristics, Receiver Operating,Curve, ROC,Curves, ROC,ROC Analyses,ROC Curves,Receiver Operating Characteristics
D012621 Seasons Divisions of the year according to some regularly recurrent phenomena usually astronomical or climatic. (From McGraw-Hill Dictionary of Scientific and Technical Terms, 6th ed) Seasonal Variation,Season,Seasonal Variations,Variation, Seasonal,Variations, Seasonal
D012914 Snow Frozen water crystals that fall from the ATMOSPHERE. Blizzard,Blizzards,Snows

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