Predicting the distribution of Vibrio spp. in the Chesapeake Bay: a Vibrio cholerae case study. 2009

Guillaume Constantin de Magny, and Wen Long, and Christopher W Brown, and Raleigh R Hood, and Anwar Huq, and Raghu Murtugudde, and Rita R Colwell
University of Maryland Institute for Advanced Computer Studies, College Park, MD 20742, USA, magny@umiacs.umd.edu.

Vibrio cholerae, the causative agent of cholera, is a naturally occurring inhabitant of the Chesapeake Bay and serves as a predictor for other clinically important vibrios, including Vibrio parahaemolyticus and Vibrio vulnificus. A system was constructed to predict the likelihood of the presence of V. cholerae in surface waters of the Chesapeake Bay, with the goal to provide forecasts of the occurrence of this and related pathogenic Vibrio spp. Prediction was achieved by driving an available multivariate empirical habitat model estimating the probability of V. cholerae within a range of temperatures and salinities in the Bay, with hydrodynamically generated predictions of ambient temperature and salinity. The experimental predictions provided both an improved understanding of the in situ variability of V. cholerae, including identification of potential hotspots of occurrence, and usefulness as an early warning system. With further development of the system, prediction of the probability of the occurrence of related pathogenic vibrios in the Chesapeake Bay, notably V. parahaemolyticus and V. vulnificus, will be possible, as well as its transport to any geographical location where sufficient relevant data are available.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D008396 Maryland A state bounded on the north by Pennsylvania, on the east by Delaware and the Atlantic Ocean, on the south by Virginia and West Virginia, and on the west by West Virginia.
D008962 Models, Theoretical Theoretical representations that simulate the behavior or activity of systems, processes, or phenomena. They include the use of mathematical equations, computers, and other electronic equipment. Experimental Model,Experimental Models,Mathematical Model,Model, Experimental,Models (Theoretical),Models, Experimental,Models, Theoretic,Theoretical Study,Mathematical Models,Model (Theoretical),Model, Mathematical,Model, Theoretical,Models, Mathematical,Studies, Theoretical,Study, Theoretical,Theoretical Model,Theoretical Models,Theoretical Studies
D005544 Forecasting The prediction or projection of the nature of future problems or existing conditions based upon the extrapolation or interpretation of existing scientific data or by the application of scientific methodology. Futurology,Projections and Predictions,Future,Predictions and Projections
D000818 Animals Unicellular or multicellular, heterotrophic organisms, that have sensation and the power of voluntary movement. Under the older five kingdom paradigm, Animalia was one of the kingdoms. Under the modern three domain model, Animalia represents one of the many groups in the domain EUKARYOTA. Animal,Metazoa,Animalia
D012623 Seawater The salinated water of OCEANS AND SEAS that provides habitat for marine organisms. Sea Water,Sea Waters,Seawaters,Water, Sea,Waters, Sea
D013696 Temperature The property of objects that determines the direction of heat flow when they are placed in direct thermal contact. The temperature is the energy of microscopic motions (vibrational and translational) of the particles of atoms. Temperatures
D014734 Vibrio cholerae The etiologic agent of CHOLERA. Bacillus cholerae,Bacillus cholerae-asiaticae,Liquidivibrio cholerae,Microspira comma,Pacinia cholerae-asiaticae,Spirillum cholerae,Spirillum cholerae-asiaticae,Vibrio albensis,Vibrio cholera,Vibrio cholerae-asiaticae,Vibrio comma
D014871 Water Microbiology The presence of bacteria, viruses, and fungi in water. This term is not restricted to pathogenic organisms. Microbiology, Water
D017753 Ecosystem A functional system which includes the organisms of a natural community together with their environment. (McGraw Hill Dictionary of Scientific and Technical Terms, 4th ed) Ecosystems,Biome,Ecologic System,Ecologic Systems,Ecological System,Habitat,Niche, Ecological,System, Ecological,Systems, Ecological,Biomes,Ecological Niche,Ecological Systems,Habitats,System, Ecologic,Systems, Ecologic
D054712 Salinity Degree of saltiness, which is largely the OSMOLAR CONCENTRATION of SODIUM CHLORIDE plus any other SALTS present. It is an ecological factor of considerable importance, influencing the types of organisms that live in an ENVIRONMENT.

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