Small bowel obstruction-who needs an operation? A multivariate prediction model. 2010

Martin D Zielinski, and Patrick W Eiken, and Michael P Bannon, and Stephanie F Heller, and Christine M Lohse, and Marianne Huebner, and Michael G Sarr
Division of Trauma, Critical Care, and General Surgery, Mary Brigh 2-810, St. Mary's Hospital, Mayo Clinic, 1216 Second Street SW, Rochester, MN, 55902, USA. zielinski.martin@mayo.edu

BACKGROUND Proper management of small bowel obstruction (SBO) requires a methodology to prevent nontherapeutic laparotomy while minimizing the chance of overlooking strangulation obstruction causing intestinal ischemia. Our aim was to identify preoperative risk factors associated with strangulating SBO and to develop a model to predict the need for operative intervention in the presence of an SBO. Our hypothesis was that free intraperitoneal fluid on computed tomography (CT) is associated with the presence of bowel ischemia and need for exploration. METHODS We reviewed 100 consecutive patients with SBO, all of whom had undergone CT that was reviewed by a radiologist blinded to outcome. The need for operative management was confirmed retrospectively by four surgeons based on operative findings and the patient's clinical course. RESULTS Patients were divided into two groups: group 1, who required operative management on retrospective review, and group 2 who did not. Four patients who were treated nonoperatively had ischemia or died of malignant SBO and were then included in group 1; two patients who had a nontherapeutic exploration were included in group 2. On univariate analysis, the need for exploration (n = 48) was associated (p < 0.05) with a history of malignancy (29% vs. 12%), vomiting (85% vs. 63%), and CT findings of either free intraperitoneal fluid (67% vs. 31%), mesenteric edema (67% vs. 37%), mesenteric vascular engorgement (85% vs. 67%), small bowel wall thickening (44% vs. 25%) or absence of the "small bowel feces sign" (so-called fecalization) (10% vs. 29%). Ischemia (n = 11) was associated (p < 0.05 each) with peritonitis (36% vs. 1%), free intraperitoneal fluid (82% vs. 44%), serum lactate concentration (2.7 +/- 1.6 vs. 1.3 +/- 0.6 mmol/l), mesenteric edema (91% vs. 46%), closed loop obstruction (27% vs. 2%), pneumatosis intestinalis (18% vs. 0%), and portal venous gas (18% vs. 0%). On multivariate analysis, free intraperitoneal fluid [odds ratio (OR) 3.80, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.5-9.9], mesenteric edema (OR 3.59, 95% CI 1.3-9.6), lack of the "small bowel feces sign" (OR 0.19, 95% CI 0.05-0.68), and a history of vomiting (OR 4.67, 95% CI 1.5-14.4) were independent predictors of the need for operative exploration (p < 0.05 each). The combination of vomiting, no "small bowel feces sign," free intraperitoneal fluid, and mesenteric edema had a sensitivity of 96%, and a positive predictive value of 90% (OR 16.4, 95% CI 3.6-75.4) for requiring exploration. CONCLUSIONS Clinical, laboratory, and radiographic factors should all be considered when making a decision about treatment of SBO. The four clinical features-intraperitoneal free fluid, mesenteric edema, lack of the "small bowel feces sign," history of vomiting-are predictive of requiring operative intervention during the patient's hospital stay and should be factored strongly into the decision-making algorithm for operative versus nonoperative treatment.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D007415 Intestinal Obstruction Any impairment, arrest, or reversal of the normal flow of INTESTINAL CONTENTS toward the ANAL CANAL. Intestinal Obstructions,Obstruction, Intestinal
D007421 Intestine, Small The portion of the GASTROINTESTINAL TRACT between the PYLORUS of the STOMACH and the ILEOCECAL VALVE of the LARGE INTESTINE. It is divisible into three portions: the DUODENUM, the JEJUNUM, and the ILEUM. Small Intestine,Intestines, Small,Small Intestines
D007511 Ischemia A hypoperfusion of the BLOOD through an organ or tissue caused by a PATHOLOGIC CONSTRICTION or obstruction of its BLOOD VESSELS, or an absence of BLOOD CIRCULATION. Ischemias
D008297 Male Males
D011237 Predictive Value of Tests In screening and diagnostic tests, the probability that a person with a positive test is a true positive (i.e., has the disease), is referred to as the predictive value of a positive test; whereas, the predictive value of a negative test is the probability that the person with a negative test does not have the disease. Predictive value is related to the sensitivity and specificity of the test. Negative Predictive Value,Positive Predictive Value,Predictive Value Of Test,Predictive Values Of Tests,Negative Predictive Values,Positive Predictive Values,Predictive Value, Negative,Predictive Value, Positive
D005260 Female Females
D006801 Humans Members of the species Homo sapiens. Homo sapiens,Man (Taxonomy),Human,Man, Modern,Modern Man
D000368 Aged A person 65 years of age or older. For a person older than 79 years, AGED, 80 AND OVER is available. Elderly
D000465 Algorithms A procedure consisting of a sequence of algebraic formulas and/or logical steps to calculate or determine a given task. Algorithm
D001202 Ascitic Fluid The serous fluid of ASCITES, the accumulation of fluids in the PERITONEAL CAVITY. Peritoneal Effusion,Peritoneal Fluid,Ascitic Fluids,Effusion, Peritoneal,Fluid, Ascitic,Fluid, Peritoneal,Peritoneal Effusions,Peritoneal Fluids

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