Biomaterial Database

Facing up to uncertain life expectancy: the longevity fan charts. 2010

Kevin Dowd, and David Blake, and Andrew J G Cairns

Pensions Institute, Cass Business School, City University, 106 Bunhill Row, London EClY 8TZ, United Kingdom. Kevin.Dowd@hotmail.co.uk

This article uses longevity fan charts to represent the uncertainty in projections of future life expectancy. These fan charts are based on a mortality model calibrated on mortality data for English and Welsh males. The fan charts indicate strong upward sloping trends in future life expectancy. Their widths indicate the extent of uncertainty in these projections, and this uncertainty increases as the forecast horizon lengthens. Allowing for uncertainty in the parameter values of the model adds further to uncertainty in life expectancy projections. The article also illustrates how longevity fan charts can be used to stress-test longevity outcomes.

UI	MeSH Term	Description	Entries
D008017	Life Expectancy	Based on known statistical data, the number of years which any person of a given age may reasonably be expected to live.	Life Extension,Years of Potential Life Lost,Expectancies, Life,Expectancy, Life,Life Expectancies
D008136	Longevity	The normal length of time of an organism's life.	Length of Life,Life Span,Lifespan,Life Spans,Lifespans
D008297	Male		Males
D008875	Middle Aged	An adult aged 45 - 64 years.	Middle Age
D009026	Mortality	All deaths reported in a given population.	CFR Case Fatality Rate,Crude Death Rate,Crude Mortality Rate,Death Rate,Age Specific Death Rate,Age-Specific Death Rate,Case Fatality Rate,Decline, Mortality,Determinants, Mortality,Differential Mortality,Excess Mortality,Mortality Decline,Mortality Determinants,Mortality Rate,Mortality, Differential,Mortality, Excess,Age-Specific Death Rates,Case Fatality Rates,Crude Death Rates,Crude Mortality Rates,Death Rate, Age-Specific,Death Rate, Crude,Death Rates,Determinant, Mortality,Differential Mortalities,Excess Mortalities,Mortalities,Mortality Declines,Mortality Determinant,Mortality Rate, Crude,Mortality Rates,Rate, Age-Specific Death,Rate, Case Fatality,Rate, Crude Death,Rate, Crude Mortality,Rate, Death,Rate, Mortality,Rates, Case Fatality
D004739	England	A part of Great Britain within the United Kingdom.
D005544	Forecasting	The prediction or projection of the nature of future problems or existing conditions based upon the extrapolation or interpretation of existing scientific data or by the application of scientific methodology.	Futurology,Projections and Predictions,Future,Predictions and Projections
D006801	Humans	Members of the species Homo sapiens.	Homo sapiens,Man (Taxonomy),Human,Man, Modern,Modern Man
D000368	Aged	A person 65 years of age or older. For a person older than 79 years, AGED, 80 AND OVER is available.	Elderly
D012306	Risk	The probability that an event will occur. It encompasses a variety of measures of the probability of a generally unfavorable outcome.	Relative Risk,Relative Risks,Risk, Relative,Risks,Risks, Relative