The benefits of transmission dynamics models in understanding emerging infectious diseases. 2010

Aaron M Wendelboe, and Carl Grafe, and Hélène Carabin
Department of Biostatistics and Epidemiology, College of Public Health, University of Oklahoma Health Sciences Center, Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, USA. aaron-wendelboe@ouhsc.edu

Factors associated with the emergence and transmission of infectious diseases often do not follow the assumptions of traditional statistical models such as linearity and independence of outcomes. Transmission dynamics models are well suited to address infectious disease scenarios that do not conform to these assumptions. For example, these models easily account for changes in the incidence rates of infection as the proportions of susceptible and infectious persons change in the population. Fundamental concepts relating to these methods, such as the basic reproductive number, the effective reproductive number and the susceptible-infected-recovered compartmental models, are reviewed. In addition, comparisons and contrasts are made between the following concepts: microparasites and macroparasites, deterministic and stochastic models, difference and differential equations and homogeneous and heterogeneous mixing patterns. Finally, examples of how transmission dynamics models are being applied to factors associated with emerging infectious diseases, such as zoonotic origins, microbial adaption and change, human susceptibility and climate change, are reviewed.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D008962 Models, Theoretical Theoretical representations that simulate the behavior or activity of systems, processes, or phenomena. They include the use of mathematical equations, computers, and other electronic equipment. Experimental Model,Experimental Models,Mathematical Model,Model, Experimental,Models (Theoretical),Models, Experimental,Models, Theoretic,Theoretical Study,Mathematical Models,Model (Theoretical),Model, Mathematical,Model, Theoretical,Models, Mathematical,Studies, Theoretical,Study, Theoretical,Theoretical Model,Theoretical Models,Theoretical Studies
D006801 Humans Members of the species Homo sapiens. Homo sapiens,Man (Taxonomy),Human,Man, Modern,Modern Man
D000818 Animals Unicellular or multicellular, heterotrophic organisms, that have sensation and the power of voluntary movement. Under the older five kingdom paradigm, Animalia was one of the kingdoms. Under the modern three domain model, Animalia represents one of the many groups in the domain EUKARYOTA. Animal,Metazoa,Animalia
D013269 Stochastic Processes Processes that incorporate some element of randomness, used particularly to refer to a time series of random variables. Process, Stochastic,Stochastic Process,Processes, Stochastic
D015994 Incidence The number of new cases of a given disease during a given period in a specified population. It also is used for the rate at which new events occur in a defined population. It is differentiated from PREVALENCE, which refers to all cases in the population at a given time. Attack Rate,Cumulative Incidence,Incidence Proportion,Incidence Rate,Person-time Rate,Secondary Attack Rate,Attack Rate, Secondary,Attack Rates,Cumulative Incidences,Incidence Proportions,Incidence Rates,Incidence, Cumulative,Incidences,Person time Rate,Person-time Rates,Proportion, Incidence,Rate, Attack,Rate, Incidence,Rate, Person-time,Rate, Secondary Attack,Secondary Attack Rates
D021821 Communicable Diseases, Emerging Infectious diseases that are novel in their outbreak ranges (geographic and host) or transmission mode. Infectious Diseases, Emerging,Communicable Diseases, Re-Emerging,Communicable Diseases, Reemerging,Infectious Diseases, Re-Emerging,Infectious Diseases, Reemerging,Communicable Disease, Emerging,Communicable Disease, Re-Emerging,Communicable Disease, Reemerging,Communicable Diseases, Re Emerging,Disease, Emerging Communicable,Disease, Emerging Infectious,Disease, Re-Emerging Communicable,Disease, Re-Emerging Infectious,Disease, Reemerging Communicable,Disease, Reemerging Infectious,Diseases, Emerging Communicable,Diseases, Emerging Infectious,Diseases, Re-Emerging Communicable,Diseases, Re-Emerging Infectious,Diseases, Reemerging Communicable,Diseases, Reemerging Infectious,Emerging Communicable Disease,Emerging Communicable Diseases,Emerging Infectious Disease,Emerging Infectious Diseases,Infectious Disease, Emerging,Infectious Disease, Re-Emerging,Infectious Disease, Reemerging,Infectious Diseases, Re Emerging,Re-Emerging Communicable Disease,Re-Emerging Communicable Diseases,Re-Emerging Infectious Disease,Re-Emerging Infectious Diseases,Reemerging Communicable Disease,Reemerging Communicable Diseases,Reemerging Infectious Disease,Reemerging Infectious Diseases

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