Stormwater quality models: performance and sensitivity analysis. 2010

C B S Dotto, and M Kleidorfer, and A Deletic, and T D Fletcher, and D T McCarthy, and W Rauch
Department of Civil Engineering and eWater CRC, Institute for Sustainable Water Resources, Monash University, Victoria 3800, Australia. cintia.dotto@eng.monas.edu.au

The complex nature of pollutant accumulation and washoff, along with high temporal and spatial variations, pose challenges for the development and establishment of accurate and reliable models of the pollution generation process in urban environments. Therefore, the search for reliable stormwater quality models remains an important area of research. Model calibration and sensitivity analysis of such models are essential in order to evaluate model performance; it is very unlikely that non-calibrated models will lead to reasonable results. This paper reports on the testing of three models which aim to represent pollutant generation from urban catchments. Assessment of the models was undertaken using a simplified Monte Carlo Markov Chain (MCMC) method. Results are presented in terms of performance, sensitivity to the parameters and correlation between these parameters. In general, it was suggested that the tested models poorly represent reality and result in a high level of uncertainty. The conclusions provide useful information for the improvement of existing models and insights for the development of new model formulations.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D008962 Models, Theoretical Theoretical representations that simulate the behavior or activity of systems, processes, or phenomena. They include the use of mathematical equations, computers, and other electronic equipment. Experimental Model,Experimental Models,Mathematical Model,Model, Experimental,Models (Theoretical),Models, Experimental,Models, Theoretic,Theoretical Study,Mathematical Models,Model (Theoretical),Model, Mathematical,Model, Theoretical,Models, Mathematical,Studies, Theoretical,Study, Theoretical,Theoretical Model,Theoretical Models,Theoretical Studies
D011891 Rain Water particles that fall from the ATMOSPHERE. Rains
D002138 Calibration Determination, by measurement or comparison with a standard, of the correct value of each scale reading on a meter or other measuring instrument; or determination of the settings of a control device that correspond to particular values of voltage, current, frequency or other output. Calibrations
D006798 Housing Living facilities for humans. Family-Patient Lodging,Patient-Family Lodging,Family Patient Lodging,Family-Patient Lodgings,Lodging, Family-Patient,Lodging, Patient-Family,Lodgings, Family-Patient,Lodgings, Patient-Family,Patient Family Lodging,Patient-Family Lodgings
D006801 Humans Members of the species Homo sapiens. Homo sapiens,Man (Taxonomy),Human,Man, Modern,Modern Man
D001499 Bayes Theorem A theorem in probability theory named for Thomas Bayes (1702-1761). In epidemiology, it is used to obtain the probability of disease in a group of people with some characteristic on the basis of the overall rate of that disease and of the likelihood of that characteristic in healthy and diseased individuals. The most familiar application is in clinical decision analysis where it is used for estimating the probability of a particular diagnosis given the appearance of some symptoms or test result. Bayesian Analysis,Bayesian Estimation,Bayesian Forecast,Bayesian Method,Bayesian Prediction,Analysis, Bayesian,Bayesian Approach,Approach, Bayesian,Approachs, Bayesian,Bayesian Approachs,Estimation, Bayesian,Forecast, Bayesian,Method, Bayesian,Prediction, Bayesian,Theorem, Bayes
D014504 Urban Health The status of health in urban populations. Health, Urban
D014867 Water A clear, odorless, tasteless liquid that is essential for most animal and plant life and is an excellent solvent for many substances. The chemical formula is hydrogen oxide (H2O). (McGraw-Hill Dictionary of Scientific and Technical Terms, 4th ed) Hydrogen Oxide
D014873 Water Pollutants Substances or organisms which pollute the water or bodies of water. Use for water pollutants in general or those for which there is no specific heading. Water Pollutant,Pollutant, Water,Pollutants, Water
D014881 Water Supply Means or process of supplying water (as for a community) usually including reservoirs, tunnels, and pipelines and often the watershed from which the water is ultimately drawn. (Webster, 3d ed) Supplies, Water,Supply, Water,Water Supplies

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