Derivation of a decision instrument for selective chest radiography in blunt trauma. 2011

Robert M Rodriguez, and Gregory W Hendey, and William Mower, and Bory Kea, and Jonathan Fortman, and Guy Merchant, and Jerome R Hoffman
Department of Emergency Medicine, San Francisco General Hospital, University of California, San Francisco, California 94110, USA. Robert.Rodriguez@emergency.ucsf.edu

BACKGROUND To derive a decision instrument (DI) that identifies patients who have virtually no risk of significant intrathoracic injury (SITI) visible on chest radiography and, therefore, no need for chest imaging. METHODS This is a prospective observational study. At three Level 1 trauma centers, physicians caring for blunt trauma patients aged >14 years were asked to record the presence or absence of 12 clinical criteria before viewing chest imaging results. SITI was defined as pneumothorax, hemothorax, aortic/great vessel injury, two or more rib fractures, ruptured diaphragm, sternal fracture, and pulmonary contusion on official radiograph readings. The κ (interrater reliability) and screening performance of individual criteria were determined. By using recursive partitioning, the most highly sensitive combination of criteria for SITI was derived. RESULTS Of the 2,628 subjects enrolled, 271 (10.3%) were diagnosed with a total of 462 SITIs, with rib fractures (73%), pneumothorax (38%), and pulmonary contusion (29%) as the most common injuries. Chest pain and chest wall tenderness had the highest sensitivity for SITI (65%). The DI of chest pain, distracting injury, chest wall tenderness, intoxication, age >60 years, rapid deceleration, and altered alertness/mental status had the following screening performance: sensitivity 99.3% (95% confidence interval [CI], 97.4-99.8), specificity 14.0% (95% CI, 12.6-15.4), negative predictive value 99.4% (95% CI, 97.8-99.8), and positive predictive value 11.7% (95% CI, 10.5-13.1). All seven criteria in the DI met the predetermined cut off for acceptable κ (range, 0.51-0.81). CONCLUSIONS We derived a DI consisting of seven clinical criteria that can identify SITI in blunt trauma patients with extremely high sensitivity. If validated, this instrument will allow for safe, selective chest imaging with potential resource savings.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D008297 Male Males
D008875 Middle Aged An adult aged 45 - 64 years. Middle Age
D011237 Predictive Value of Tests In screening and diagnostic tests, the probability that a person with a positive test is a true positive (i.e., has the disease), is referred to as the predictive value of a positive test; whereas, the predictive value of a negative test is the probability that the person with a negative test does not have the disease. Predictive value is related to the sensitivity and specificity of the test. Negative Predictive Value,Positive Predictive Value,Predictive Value Of Test,Predictive Values Of Tests,Negative Predictive Values,Positive Predictive Values,Predictive Value, Negative,Predictive Value, Positive
D011446 Prospective Studies Observation of a population for a sufficient number of persons over a sufficient number of years to generate incidence or mortality rates subsequent to the selection of the study group. Prospective Study,Studies, Prospective,Study, Prospective
D003661 Decision Support Techniques Mathematical or statistical procedures used as aids in making a decision. They are frequently used in medical decision-making. Decision Analysis,Decision Modeling,Models, Decision Support,Analysis, Decision,Decision Aids,Decision Support Technics,Aid, Decision,Aids, Decision,Analyses, Decision,Decision Aid,Decision Analyses,Decision Support Model,Decision Support Models,Decision Support Technic,Decision Support Technique,Model, Decision Support,Modeling, Decision,Technic, Decision Support,Technics, Decision Support,Technique, Decision Support,Techniques, Decision Support
D005260 Female Females
D006801 Humans Members of the species Homo sapiens. Homo sapiens,Man (Taxonomy),Human,Man, Modern,Modern Man
D000328 Adult A person having attained full growth or maturity. Adults are of 19 through 44 years of age. For a person between 19 and 24 years of age, YOUNG ADULT is available. Adults
D013898 Thoracic Injuries General or unspecified injuries to the chest area. Chest Injuries,Injuries, Chest,Injuries, Thoracic,Chest Injury,Injury, Chest,Injury, Thoracic,Thoracic Injury
D013902 Radiography, Thoracic X-ray visualization of the chest and organs of the thoracic cavity. It is not restricted to visualization of the lungs. Thoracic Radiography,Radiographies, Thoracic,Thoracic Radiographies

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