Bayesian sample-size determination for two independent Poisson rates. 2011

Austin L Hand, and James D Stamey, and Dean M Young
Department of Statistics, Baylor University, Waco, TX, USA. Austin_Hand@baylor.edu

Because of the high cost and time constraints for clinical trials, researchers often need to determine the smallest sample size that provides accurate inferences for a parameter of interest. Although most experimenters have employed frequentist sample-size determination methods, the Bayesian paradigm offers a wide variety of sample-size determination methodologies. Bayesian sample-size determination methods are becoming increasingly more popular in clinical trials because of their flexibility and easy interpretation inferences. Recently, Bayesian approaches have been used to determine the sample size of a single Poisson rate parameter in a clinical trial setting. In this paper, we extend these results to the comparison of two Poisson rates and develop methods for sample-size determination for hypothesis testing in a Bayesian context. We have created functions in R to determine the parameters for the conjugate gamma prior and calculate the sample size for the average length criterion and average power methods. We also provide two examples that implement our sample-size determination methods using clinical data.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D008962 Models, Theoretical Theoretical representations that simulate the behavior or activity of systems, processes, or phenomena. They include the use of mathematical equations, computers, and other electronic equipment. Experimental Model,Experimental Models,Mathematical Model,Model, Experimental,Models (Theoretical),Models, Experimental,Models, Theoretic,Theoretical Study,Mathematical Models,Model (Theoretical),Model, Mathematical,Model, Theoretical,Models, Mathematical,Studies, Theoretical,Study, Theoretical,Theoretical Model,Theoretical Models,Theoretical Studies
D001499 Bayes Theorem A theorem in probability theory named for Thomas Bayes (1702-1761). In epidemiology, it is used to obtain the probability of disease in a group of people with some characteristic on the basis of the overall rate of that disease and of the likelihood of that characteristic in healthy and diseased individuals. The most familiar application is in clinical decision analysis where it is used for estimating the probability of a particular diagnosis given the appearance of some symptoms or test result. Bayesian Analysis,Bayesian Estimation,Bayesian Forecast,Bayesian Method,Bayesian Prediction,Analysis, Bayesian,Bayesian Approach,Approach, Bayesian,Approachs, Bayesian,Bayesian Approachs,Estimation, Bayesian,Forecast, Bayesian,Method, Bayesian,Prediction, Bayesian,Theorem, Bayes
D016012 Poisson Distribution A distribution function used to describe the occurrence of rare events or to describe the sampling distribution of isolated counts in a continuum of time or space. Distribution, Poisson
D018401 Sample Size The number of units (persons, animals, patients, specified circumstances, etc.) in a population to be studied. The sample size should be big enough to have a high likelihood of detecting a true difference between two groups. (From Wassertheil-Smoller, Biostatistics and Epidemiology, 1990, p95) Sample Sizes,Size, Sample,Sizes, Sample

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