Incorporating parameter uncertainty into Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment (QMRA). 2011

Margaret Donald, and Kerrie Mengersen, and Simon Toze, and Jatinder P S Sidhu, and Angus Cook
Queensland University of Technology, George Street, Brisbane, QLD 4000, Australia. Margaret.Donald@student.qut.edu.au

Modern statistical models and computational methods can now incorporate uncertainty of the parameters used in Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessments (QMRA). Many QMRAs use Monte Carlo methods, but work from fixed estimates for means, variances and other parameters. We illustrate the ease of estimating all parameters contemporaneously with the risk assessment, incorporating all the parameter uncertainty arising from the experiments from which these parameters are estimated. A Bayesian approach is adopted, using Markov Chain Monte Carlo Gibbs sampling (MCMC) via the freely available software, WinBUGS. The method and its ease of implementation are illustrated by a case study that involves incorporating three disparate datasets into an MCMC framework. The probabilities of infection when the uncertainty associated with parameter estimation is incorporated into a QMRA are shown to be considerably more variable over various dose ranges than the analogous probabilities obtained when constants from the literature are simply 'plugged' in as is done in most QMRAs. Neglecting these sources of uncertainty may lead to erroneous decisions for public health and risk management.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D008390 Markov Chains A stochastic process such that the conditional probability distribution for a state at any future instant, given the present state, is unaffected by any additional knowledge of the past history of the system. Markov Process,Markov Chain,Chain, Markov,Chains, Markov,Markov Processes,Process, Markov,Processes, Markov
D008954 Models, Biological Theoretical representations that simulate the behavior or activity of biological processes or diseases. For disease models in living animals, DISEASE MODELS, ANIMAL is available. Biological models include the use of mathematical equations, computers, and other electronic equipment. Biological Model,Biological Models,Model, Biological,Models, Biologic,Biologic Model,Biologic Models,Model, Biologic
D009010 Monte Carlo Method In statistics, a technique for numerically approximating the solution of a mathematical problem by studying the distribution of some random variable, often generated by a computer. The name alludes to the randomness characteristic of the games of chance played at the gambling casinos in Monte Carlo. (From Random House Unabridged Dictionary, 2d ed, 1993) Method, Monte Carlo
D006801 Humans Members of the species Homo sapiens. Homo sapiens,Man (Taxonomy),Human,Man, Modern,Modern Man
D001499 Bayes Theorem A theorem in probability theory named for Thomas Bayes (1702-1761). In epidemiology, it is used to obtain the probability of disease in a group of people with some characteristic on the basis of the overall rate of that disease and of the likelihood of that characteristic in healthy and diseased individuals. The most familiar application is in clinical decision analysis where it is used for estimating the probability of a particular diagnosis given the appearance of some symptoms or test result. Bayesian Analysis,Bayesian Estimation,Bayesian Forecast,Bayesian Method,Bayesian Prediction,Analysis, Bayesian,Bayesian Approach,Approach, Bayesian,Approachs, Bayesian,Bayesian Approachs,Estimation, Bayesian,Forecast, Bayesian,Method, Bayesian,Prediction, Bayesian,Theorem, Bayes
D012480 Salmonella Infections Infections with bacteria of the genus SALMONELLA. Salmonellosis,Infections, Salmonella,Infection, Salmonella,Salmonella Infection,Salmonelloses
D012486 Salmonella typhimurium A serotype of Salmonella enterica that is a frequent agent of Salmonella gastroenteritis in humans. It also causes PARATYPHOID FEVER. Salmonella typhimurium LT2
D013472 Sunlight Irradiation directly from the sun. Sunshine
D014871 Water Microbiology The presence of bacteria, viruses, and fungi in water. This term is not restricted to pathogenic organisms. Microbiology, Water
D014904 Western Australia A state in western Australia. Its capital is Perth. It was first visited by the Dutch in 1616 but the English took possession in 1791 and permanent colonization began in 1829. It was a penal settlement 1850-1888, became part of the colonial government in 1886, and was granted self government in 1890. (From Webster's New Geographical Dictionary, 1988, p1329)

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