Pandemic mitigation: Bringing it home. 2011

Tom Reichert
Entropy Research Institute, 345 S Great Rd, Lincoln, MA 01773, USA. treichert@entropylimited.com

In the US, national, regional and even institutional plans for ameliorating the effects of pandemic influenza focus on stockpiling antiviral medications, early production and distribution of vaccine, mass and personal social distancing, and a number of personal hygiene activities. Essential personnel are the first scheduled to receive preventive and therapeutic pharmaceuticals, followed by high risk groups, the largest of which are the elderly. Specific recommendations for protection embody a bunker mentality with a time horizon of two weeks, emulating preparation for a natural disaster. The epidemiology of pandemic influenza is scarcely considered. We summarize here the envelope of mortality attributable to epidemic and pandemic influenza in the last 90 years of the last century as a lead in to a presentation of the multinational case age distribution of the novel H1N1 pandemic of 2009. We discuss the sparing of elderly subpopulations in pandemics and the subsequent abrupt resurgence of mortality in the spared age groups as drift variants emerge. The general decline in the baseline of age-specific excess mortality in economically developed countries is characterized and its importance assessed. Models of acute and chronic care facilities are discussed and an argument is advanced that society as a whole as well as acute care facilities cannot be protected against incursion and widespread infection in pandemics of severity above low moderate. The key findings of models of chronic care institutions and others that can control public access, such as corporations, are used to describe programs with a realistic chance of providing protection in even severe pandemics. These principles are further mapped onto individual residences. Materials directing institutional and home planning are cited.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D007251 Influenza, Human An acute viral infection in humans involving the respiratory tract. It is marked by inflammation of the NASAL MUCOSA; the PHARYNX; and conjunctiva, and by headache and severe, often generalized, myalgia. Grippe,Human Flu,Human Influenza,Influenza in Humans,Influenza,Flu, Human,Human Influenzas,Influenza in Human,Influenzas,Influenzas, Human
D009980 Influenza A virus The type species of the genus ALPHAINFLUENZAVIRUS that causes influenza and other diseases in humans and animals. Antigenic variation occurs frequently between strains, allowing classification into subtypes and variants. Transmission is usually by aerosol (human and most non-aquatic hosts) or waterborne (ducks). Infected birds shed the virus in their saliva, nasal secretions, and feces. Alphainfluenzavirus influenzae,Avian Orthomyxovirus Type A,FLUAV,Fowl Plague Virus,Human Influenza A Virus,Influenza Virus Type A,Influenza Viruses Type A,Myxovirus influenzae-A hominis,Myxovirus influenzae-A suis,Myxovirus pestis galli,Orthomyxovirus Type A,Orthomyxovirus Type A, Avian,Orthomyxovirus Type A, Human,Orthomyxovirus Type A, Porcine,Pestis galli Myxovirus,Fowl Plague Viruses,Influenza A viruses,Myxovirus influenzae A hominis,Myxovirus influenzae A suis,Myxovirus, Pestis galli,Myxoviruses, Pestis galli,Pestis galli Myxoviruses,Plague Virus, Fowl,Virus, Fowl Plague
D004189 Disaster Planning Procedures outlined for the care of casualties and the maintenance of services in disasters. Disaster Management,Emergency Preparedness,Disaster Relief Planning,Management, Disaster,Planning, Disaster,Planning, Disaster Relief,Preparedness, Emergency,Relief Planning, Disaster
D006801 Humans Members of the species Homo sapiens. Homo sapiens,Man (Taxonomy),Human,Man, Modern,Modern Man
D000367 Age Factors Age as a constituent element or influence contributing to the production of a result. It may be applicable to the cause or the effect of a circumstance. It is used with human or animal concepts but should be differentiated from AGING, a physiological process, and TIME FACTORS which refers only to the passage of time. Age Reporting,Age Factor,Factor, Age,Factors, Age
D058873 Pandemics Epidemics of infectious disease that have spread to many countries, often more than one continent, and usually affecting a large number of people. Pandemic

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