Risk based culling for highly infectious diseases of livestock. 2011

Dennis E te Beest, and Thomas J Hagenaars, and J Arjan Stegeman, and Marion P G Koopmans, and Michiel van Boven
Department of Farm Animal Health, Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Utrecht University, Yalelaan 7, 3584 CL, Utrecht, The Netherlands. dennis.te.beest@rivm.nl.

The control of highly infectious diseases of livestock such as classical swine fever, foot-and-mouth disease, and avian influenza is fraught with ethical, economic, and public health dilemmas. Attempts to control outbreaks of these pathogens rely on massive culling of infected farms, and farms deemed to be at risk of infection. Conventional approaches usually involve the preventive culling of all farms within a certain radius of an infected farm. Here we propose a novel culling strategy that is based on the idea that farms that have the highest expected number of secondary infections should be culled first. We show that, in comparison with conventional approaches (ring culling), our new method of risk based culling can reduce the total number of farms that need to be culled, the number of culled infected farms (and thus the expected number of human infections in case of a zoonosis), and the duration of the epidemic. Our novel risk based culling strategy requires three pieces of information, viz. the location of all farms in the area at risk, the moments when infected farms are detected, and an estimate of the distance-dependent probability of transmission.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D008954 Models, Biological Theoretical representations that simulate the behavior or activity of biological processes or diseases. For disease models in living animals, DISEASE MODELS, ANIMAL is available. Biological models include the use of mathematical equations, computers, and other electronic equipment. Biological Model,Biological Models,Model, Biological,Models, Biologic,Biologic Model,Biologic Models,Model, Biologic
D011200 Poultry Domesticated birds raised for food. It typically includes CHICKENS; TURKEYS, DUCKS; GEESE; and others. Fowls, Domestic,Domestic Fowl,Domestic Fowls,Fowl, Domestic,Poultries
D003140 Communicable Disease Control Programs of surveillance designed to prevent the transmission of disease by any means from person to person or from animal to man. Flatten the Curve of Epidemic,Flattening the Curve, Communicable Disease Control,Parasite Control,Control, Communicable Disease,Control, Parasite
D003141 Communicable Diseases An illness caused by an infectious agent or its toxins that occurs through the direct or indirect transmission of the infectious agent or its products from an infected individual or via an animal, vector or the inanimate environment to a susceptible animal or human host. Infectious Diseases,Communicable Disease,Disease, Communicable,Disease, Infectious,Diseases, Communicable,Diseases, Infectious,Infectious Disease
D003198 Computer Simulation Computer-based representation of physical systems and phenomena such as chemical processes. Computational Modeling,Computational Modelling,Computer Models,In silico Modeling,In silico Models,In silico Simulation,Models, Computer,Computerized Models,Computer Model,Computer Simulations,Computerized Model,In silico Model,Model, Computer,Model, Computerized,Model, In silico,Modeling, Computational,Modeling, In silico,Modelling, Computational,Simulation, Computer,Simulation, In silico,Simulations, Computer
D004196 Disease Outbreaks Sudden increase in the incidence of a disease. The concept includes EPIDEMICS and PANDEMICS. Outbreaks,Infectious Disease Outbreaks,Disease Outbreak,Disease Outbreak, Infectious,Disease Outbreaks, Infectious,Infectious Disease Outbreak,Outbreak, Disease,Outbreak, Infectious Disease,Outbreaks, Disease,Outbreaks, Infectious Disease
D005843 Geography The science dealing with the earth and its life, especially the description of land, sea, and air and the distribution of plant and animal life, including humanity and human industries with reference to the mutual relations of these elements. (From Webster, 3d ed) Factor, Geographic,Factors, Geographic,Geographic Factor,Geographic Factors,Geography, Human,Human Geography
D000818 Animals Unicellular or multicellular, heterotrophic organisms, that have sensation and the power of voluntary movement. Under the older five kingdom paradigm, Animalia was one of the kingdoms. Under the modern three domain model, Animalia represents one of the many groups in the domain EUKARYOTA. Animal,Metazoa,Animalia
D013997 Time Factors Elements of limited time intervals, contributing to particular results or situations. Time Series,Factor, Time,Time Factor
D058751 Livestock Domesticated farm animals raised for home use or profit but excluding POULTRY. Typically livestock includes CATTLE; SHEEP; HORSES; SWINE; GOATS; and others. Livestocks

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