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Two hundred seventy-one patients with various forms of alcoholic liver disease were followed up for an average of 87.9 months. The survival was the lowest for alcoholic cirrhosis (average 10-year survival: 23.8%). Prognosis was grave especially in cirrhotic patients who continued drinking, owing mainly to the increased death due to gastrointestinal bleeding. The development of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) was observed during the first six years only in cirrhosis. The average 5-year probability rate of developing HCC for cirrhosis was 16.3%. The rate was significantly higher for the cirrhotic patients who abstained than for those who continued drinking. Serial biopsies were performed on 66 non-cirrhotic patients who continued drinking. The mean duration of histological follow-up 46.0 months. Cirrhosis developed eventually in 30.3% of the cases. In conclusion, the present study indicates that continued drinking causes progressive liver damage and a poor prognosis. Our data also suggest that abstinence is associated with an increased risk of HCC in cirrhosis. Thus, it is important to recover from alcoholism before cirrhosis develops.
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