Zidovudine prophylaxis for needlestick exposure to human immunodeficiency virus: a decision analysis. 1990

H S Sacks, and D N Rose
Clinical Trials Unit, Mount Sinai School of Medicine, City University of New York, New York.

OBJECTIVE To perform a decision analysis to determine the thresholds of safety and effectiveness that would justify short-term zidovudine (AZT) administration for persons with accidental percutaneous exposure to HIV-positive blood. METHODS Published data were used to estimate the seroconversion rate (0.42%), rate of developing AIDS if HIV-infected (5%/year), and survival with AIDS (50%/year). No information is available on zidovudine effectiveness and little is known about fatal toxicity of zidovudine. Death from AIDS or from zidovudine toxicity was used as the endpoint. RESULTS For those with exposure to blood known to be HIV-seropositive, the benefits of zidovudine outweight the risks if efficacy is above approximately 3% to 8%. Wide variations in the assumptions have little effect on the thresholds. CONCLUSIONS Since clinical trials to determine zidovudine effectiveness in this setting will probably never be done, decision analysis offers the only quantitative method for addressing this question. Unless future studies show zidovudine to be both ineffective and toxic, the benefits of short-term administration of zidovudine outweigh the risks immediately after exposure to HIV-positive blood. Zidovudine benefits do not clearly outweigh the risks after exposure to blood of unknown serologic status, or if there is a delay in starting therapy.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D009339 Needles Sharp instruments used for puncturing or suturing. Hypodermic Needles,Hypodermic Needle,Needle,Needle, Hypodermic,Needles, Hypodermic
D009784 Occupational Diseases Diseases caused by factors involved in one's employment. Diseases, Occupational,Occupational Illnesses,Disease, Occupational,Illnesse, Occupational,Illnesses, Occupational,Occupational Disease,Occupational Illnesse
D003661 Decision Support Techniques Mathematical or statistical procedures used as aids in making a decision. They are frequently used in medical decision-making. Decision Analysis,Decision Modeling,Models, Decision Support,Analysis, Decision,Decision Aids,Decision Support Technics,Aid, Decision,Aids, Decision,Analyses, Decision,Decision Aid,Decision Analyses,Decision Support Model,Decision Support Models,Decision Support Technic,Decision Support Technique,Model, Decision Support,Modeling, Decision,Technic, Decision Support,Technics, Decision Support,Technique, Decision Support,Techniques, Decision Support
D006280 Health Workforce The availability of HEALTH PERSONNEL. It includes the demand and recruitment of both professional and allied health personnel, their present and future supply and distribution, and their assignment and utilization. Health Manpower,Health Occupations Manpower,Manpower, Health,Manpower, Health Occupations,Workforce, Health
D006801 Humans Members of the species Homo sapiens. Homo sapiens,Man (Taxonomy),Human,Man, Modern,Modern Man
D000163 Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome An acquired defect of cellular immunity associated with infection by the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), a CD4-positive T-lymphocyte count under 200 cells/microliter or less than 14% of total lymphocytes, and increased susceptibility to opportunistic infections and malignant neoplasms. Clinical manifestations also include emaciation (wasting) and dementia. These elements reflect criteria for AIDS as defined by the CDC in 1993. AIDS,Immunodeficiency Syndrome, Acquired,Immunologic Deficiency Syndrome, Acquired,Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome,Acquired Immuno-Deficiency Syndrome,Acquired Immuno Deficiency Syndrome,Acquired Immuno-Deficiency Syndromes,Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndromes,Immuno-Deficiency Syndrome, Acquired,Immuno-Deficiency Syndromes, Acquired,Immunodeficiency Syndromes, Acquired,Syndrome, Acquired Immuno-Deficiency,Syndrome, Acquired Immunodeficiency,Syndromes, Acquired Immuno-Deficiency,Syndromes, Acquired Immunodeficiency
D012307 Risk Factors An aspect of personal behavior or lifestyle, environmental exposure, inborn or inherited characteristic, which, based on epidemiological evidence, is known to be associated with a health-related condition considered important to prevent. Health Correlates,Risk Factor Scores,Risk Scores,Social Risk Factors,Population at Risk,Populations at Risk,Correlates, Health,Factor, Risk,Factor, Social Risk,Factors, Social Risk,Risk Factor,Risk Factor Score,Risk Factor, Social,Risk Factors, Social,Risk Score,Score, Risk,Score, Risk Factor,Social Risk Factor
D014951 Wounds, Stab Penetrating wounds caused by a pointed object. Stab Wound,Stab Wounds,Wound, Stab
D015215 Zidovudine A dideoxynucleoside compound in which the 3'-hydroxy group on the sugar moiety has been replaced by an azido group. This modification prevents the formation of phosphodiester linkages which are needed for the completion of nucleic acid chains. The compound is a potent inhibitor of HIV replication, acting as a chain-terminator of viral DNA during reverse transcription. It improves immunologic function, partially reverses the HIV-induced neurological dysfunction, and improves certain other clinical abnormalities associated with AIDS. Its principal toxic effect is dose-dependent suppression of bone marrow, resulting in anemia and leukopenia. AZT (Antiviral),Azidothymidine,3'-Azido-2',3'-Dideoxythymidine,3'-Azido-3'-deoxythymidine,AZT Antiviral,AZT, Antiviral,BW A509U,BWA-509U,Retrovir,3' Azido 2',3' Dideoxythymidine,3' Azido 3' deoxythymidine,Antiviral AZT,BWA 509U,BWA509U

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