[Risk model to assess livestock rabies exposure in the state of São Paulo, Brazil]. 2011

Ricardo Augusto Dias, and Vladimir de Souza Nogueira Filho, and Carla da Silva Goulart, and Isabel Cristine Oliveira Telles, and Guilherme Henrique Figueiredo Marques, and Fernando Ferreira, and Marcos Amaku, and José Soares Ferreira Neto
Departamento de Medicina Veterinária Preventiva e Saúde Animal, Faculdade de Medicina Veterinária e Zootecnia, Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, Brasil. dias@vps.fmvz.usp.br

OBJECTIVE To propose a qualitative risk assessment model for the study of livestock exposure to rabies virus from the vampire bat Desmodus rotundus (antigenic variant 3) in the Paraíba do Sul river valley, state of São Paulo, Brazil. METHODS Based on scenario trees generated considering rabies exposure and its spread, we estimated the probability of rabies cases in large livestock and its association with the geographic location of livestock farms. RESULTS Assessment of the historical series of rabies focal points in the first semester of 2006, which was used to validate the risk assessment model, revealed that 81.8% of the focal points were adequately foreseen by the model and could have been prevented with strategic vaccination in high-risk areas. CONCLUSIONS The adoption of control measures specifically targeting high-risk areas might entail a substantial decrease in the number of rabies focal points, at a low cost and with optimal movement of field teams.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D011818 Rabies Acute VIRAL CNS INFECTION affecting mammals, including humans. It is caused by RABIES VIRUS and usually spread by contamination with virus-laden saliva of bites inflicted by rabid animals. Important animal vectors include the dog, cat, bat, fox, raccoon, skunk, and wolf. Encephalitic Rabies,Furious Rabies,Hydrophobia,Paralytic Rabies,Lyssa,Furious Raby,Lyssas,Rabies, Encephalitic,Rabies, Furious,Raby, Furious
D011820 Rabies virus The type species of LYSSAVIRUS causing rabies in humans and other animals. Transmission is mostly by animal bites through saliva. The virus is neurotropic multiplying in neurons and myotubes of vertebrates. Rabies viruses
D001938 Brazil A country located on the eastern coast of South America, located between Colombia and Peru, that borders the Atlantic Ocean. It is bordered on the north by Venezuela, Guyana, Suriname, and French Guiana, on the south by Uruguay, and on the west by Argentina. The capital is Brasilia.
D002417 Cattle Domesticated bovine animals of the genus Bos, usually kept on a farm or ranch and used for the production of meat or dairy products or for heavy labor. Beef Cow,Bos grunniens,Bos indicus,Bos indicus Cattle,Bos taurus,Cow,Cow, Domestic,Dairy Cow,Holstein Cow,Indicine Cattle,Taurine Cattle,Taurus Cattle,Yak,Zebu,Beef Cows,Bos indicus Cattles,Cattle, Bos indicus,Cattle, Indicine,Cattle, Taurine,Cattle, Taurus,Cattles, Bos indicus,Cattles, Indicine,Cattles, Taurine,Cattles, Taurus,Cow, Beef,Cow, Dairy,Cow, Holstein,Cows,Dairy Cows,Domestic Cow,Domestic Cows,Indicine Cattles,Taurine Cattles,Taurus Cattles,Yaks,Zebus
D005843 Geography The science dealing with the earth and its life, especially the description of land, sea, and air and the distribution of plant and animal life, including humanity and human industries with reference to the mutual relations of these elements. (From Webster, 3d ed) Factor, Geographic,Factors, Geographic,Geographic Factor,Geographic Factors,Geography, Human,Human Geography
D006801 Humans Members of the species Homo sapiens. Homo sapiens,Man (Taxonomy),Human,Man, Modern,Modern Man
D000818 Animals Unicellular or multicellular, heterotrophic organisms, that have sensation and the power of voluntary movement. Under the older five kingdom paradigm, Animalia was one of the kingdoms. Under the modern three domain model, Animalia represents one of the many groups in the domain EUKARYOTA. Animal,Metazoa,Animalia
D015047 Zoonoses Diseases of non-human animals that may be transmitted to HUMANS or may be transmitted from humans to non-human animals. Zoonotic Spillover,Zoonotic Diseases,Zoonotic Infections,Zoonotic Infectious Diseases,Disease, Zoonotic,Disease, Zoonotic Infectious,Diseases, Zoonotic,Diseases, Zoonotic Infectious,Infection, Zoonotic,Infections, Zoonotic,Infectious Disease, Zoonotic,Infectious Diseases, Zoonotic,Spillovers, Zoonotic,Zoonotic Disease,Zoonotic Infection,Zoonotic Infectious Disease,Zoonotic Spillovers
D015233 Models, Statistical Statistical formulations or analyses which, when applied to data and found to fit the data, are then used to verify the assumptions and parameters used in the analysis. Examples of statistical models are the linear model, binomial model, polynomial model, two-parameter model, etc. Probabilistic Models,Statistical Models,Two-Parameter Models,Model, Statistical,Models, Binomial,Models, Polynomial,Statistical Model,Binomial Model,Binomial Models,Model, Binomial,Model, Polynomial,Model, Probabilistic,Model, Two-Parameter,Models, Probabilistic,Models, Two-Parameter,Polynomial Model,Polynomial Models,Probabilistic Model,Two Parameter Models,Two-Parameter Model
D058751 Livestock Domesticated farm animals raised for home use or profit but excluding POULTRY. Typically livestock includes CATTLE; SHEEP; HORSES; SWINE; GOATS; and others. Livestocks

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