Influence of the network topology on epidemic spreading. 2012

Daniel Smilkov, and Ljupco Kocarev
Macedonian Academy for Sciences and Arts, Skopje, Macedonia. dsmilkov@cs.manu.edu.mk

The influence of the network's structure on the dynamics of spreading processes has been extensively studied in the last decade. Important results that partially answer this question show a weak connection between the macroscopic behavior of these processes and specific structural properties in the network, such as the largest eigenvalue of a topology related matrix. However, little is known about the direct influence of the network topology on the microscopic level, such as the influence of the (neighboring) network on the probability of a particular node's infection. To answer this question, we derive both an upper and a lower bound for the probability that a particular node is infective in a susceptible-infective-susceptible model for two cases of spreading processes: reactive and contact processes. The bounds are derived by considering the n-hop neighborhood of the node; the bounds are tighter as one uses a larger n-hop neighborhood to calculate them. Consequently, using local information for different neighborhood sizes, we assess the extent to which the topology influences the spreading process, thus providing also a strong macroscopic connection between the former and the latter. Our findings are complemented by numerical results for a real-world email network. A very good estimate for the infection density ρ is obtained using only two-hop neighborhoods, which account for 0.4% of the entire network topology on average.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D008390 Markov Chains A stochastic process such that the conditional probability distribution for a state at any future instant, given the present state, is unaffected by any additional knowledge of the past history of the system. Markov Process,Markov Chain,Chain, Markov,Chains, Markov,Markov Processes,Process, Markov,Processes, Markov
D008962 Models, Theoretical Theoretical representations that simulate the behavior or activity of systems, processes, or phenomena. They include the use of mathematical equations, computers, and other electronic equipment. Experimental Model,Experimental Models,Mathematical Model,Model, Experimental,Models (Theoretical),Models, Experimental,Models, Theoretic,Theoretical Study,Mathematical Models,Model (Theoretical),Model, Mathematical,Model, Theoretical,Models, Mathematical,Studies, Theoretical,Study, Theoretical,Theoretical Model,Theoretical Models,Theoretical Studies
D003141 Communicable Diseases An illness caused by an infectious agent or its toxins that occurs through the direct or indirect transmission of the infectious agent or its products from an infected individual or via an animal, vector or the inanimate environment to a susceptible animal or human host. Infectious Diseases,Communicable Disease,Disease, Communicable,Disease, Infectious,Diseases, Communicable,Diseases, Infectious,Infectious Disease
D004198 Disease Susceptibility A constitution or condition of the body which makes the tissues react in special ways to certain extrinsic stimuli and thus tends to make the individual more than usually susceptible to certain diseases. Diathesis,Susceptibility, Disease,Diatheses,Disease Susceptibilities,Susceptibilities, Disease

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