Prediction of extubation failure in medical intensive care unit patients. 2012

Bernd Saugel, and Philipp Rakette, and Alexander Hapfelmeier, and Caroline Schultheiss, and Veit Phillip, and Philipp Thies, and Matthias Treiber, and Henrik Einwächter, and Alexander von Werder, and Rudi Pfab, and Florian Eyer, and Roland M Schmid, and Wolfgang Huber
II Medizinische Klinik und Poliklinik, Klinikum rechts der Isar der Technischen Universität München, Ismaninger Strasse 22, D-81675 München, Germany. bcs.muc@gmx.de

OBJECTIVE The purpose of this study was to evaluate prediction factors for extubation failure (need for reintubation within 48 hours) in medical intensive care unit patients. METHODS Sixty-one patients extubated after mechanical ventilation for more than 48 hours were included in the study. A retrospective analysis of medical records and a prospectively maintained database on respiratory parameters was conducted. RESULTS Low serum anion gap (P = .001), low serum anion gap corrected for serum albumin (P = .010), and low arterial partial pressure of oxygen (Pao(2))/fraction of inspired oxygen (Fio(2)) ratio (P = .032) were significantly associated with extubation failure. Binary logistic regression analysis revealed low uncorrected and corrected serum anion gap (P = .006 and P = .025, respectively; odds ratio, 0.59 for both) and low Pao(2)/Fio(2) ratio (P = .038; odds ratio, 0.99) as risk factors for extubation failure. Regarding extubation failure, receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) analysis demonstrated good predictive capabilities of serum anion gap (ROC area under the curve, 0.835; P = .004; cutoff, 7.7 mEq/L; sensitivity, 70.4%; specificity, 85.7%) and corrected serum anion gap (ROC area under the curve, 0.808; P = .009; cutoff, 8.8 mEq/L; sensitivity, 87.5%; specificity, 71.4%). A significantly higher risk for extubation failure was observed in patients with serum anion gap 5.2 mEq/L or less (relative risk, 8.8; 95% confidence interval, 2.4-32.4; P = .004) and corrected serum anion gap 8.6 mEq/L or less (relative risk, 10.0; 95% confidence interval, 2.2-44.9; P = .004). CONCLUSIONS Low preextubation serum anion gap values and low preextubation Pao(2)/Fio(2) ratio might help to predict extubation failure in medical intensive care unit patients.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D007362 Intensive Care Units Hospital units providing continuous surveillance and care to acutely ill patients. ICU Intensive Care Units,Intensive Care Unit,Unit, Intensive Care
D008297 Male Males
D008875 Middle Aged An adult aged 45 - 64 years. Middle Age
D001784 Blood Gas Analysis Measurement of oxygen and carbon dioxide in the blood. Analysis, Blood Gas,Analyses, Blood Gas,Blood Gas Analyses,Gas Analyses, Blood,Gas Analysis, Blood
D005260 Female Females
D006801 Humans Members of the species Homo sapiens. Homo sapiens,Man (Taxonomy),Human,Man, Modern,Modern Man
D000136 Acid-Base Equilibrium The balance between acids and bases in the BODY FLUIDS. The pH (HYDROGEN-ION CONCENTRATION) of the arterial BLOOD provides an index for the total body acid-base balance. Anion Gap,Acid-Base Balance,Acid Base Balance,Acid Base Equilibrium,Anion Gaps,Balance, Acid-Base,Equilibrium, Acid-Base,Gap, Anion,Gaps, Anion
D000368 Aged A person 65 years of age or older. For a person older than 79 years, AGED, 80 AND OVER is available. Elderly
D012189 Retrospective Studies Studies used to test etiologic hypotheses in which inferences about an exposure to putative causal factors are derived from data relating to characteristics of persons under study or to events or experiences in their past. The essential feature is that some of the persons under study have the disease or outcome of interest and their characteristics are compared with those of unaffected persons. Retrospective Study,Studies, Retrospective,Study, Retrospective
D012372 ROC Curve A graphic means for assessing the ability of a screening test to discriminate between healthy and diseased persons; may also be used in other studies, e.g., distinguishing stimuli responses as to a faint stimuli or nonstimuli. ROC Analysis,Receiver Operating Characteristic,Analysis, ROC,Analyses, ROC,Characteristic, Receiver Operating,Characteristics, Receiver Operating,Curve, ROC,Curves, ROC,ROC Analyses,ROC Curves,Receiver Operating Characteristics

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