Change in rainfall drives malaria re-emergence in Anhui Province, China. 2012

Hong-Wei Gao, and Li-Ping Wang, and Song Liang, and Yong-Xiao Liu, and Shi-Lu Tong, and Jian-Jun Wang, and Ya-Pin Li, and Xiao-Feng Wang, and Hong Yang, and Jia-Qi Ma, and Li-Qun Fang, and Wu-Chun Cao
State Key Laboratory of Pathogen and Biosecurity, Beijing Institute of Microbiology and Epidemiology, Beijing, People's Republic of China.

Malaria is re-emerging in Anhui Province, China after a decade long' low level of endemicity. The number of human cases has increased rapidly since 2000 and reached its peak in 2006. That year, the malaria cases accounted for 54.5% of total cases in mainland China. However, the spatial and temporal patterns of human cases and factors underlying the re-emergence remain unclear. We established a database containing 20 years' (1990-2009) records of monthly reported malaria cases and meteorological parameters. Spearman correlations were used to assess the crude association between malaria incidence and meteorological variables, and a polynomial distributed lag (PDL) time-series regression was performed to examine contribution of meteorological factors to malaria transmission in three geographic regions (northern, mid and southern Anhui Province), respectively. Then, a two-year (2008-2009) prediction was performed to validate the PDL model that was created by using the data collected from 1990 to 2007. We found that malaria incidence decreased in Anhui Province in 1990s. However, the incidence has dramatically increased in the north since 2000, while the transmission has remained at a relatively low level in the mid and south. Spearman correlation analyses showed that the monthly incidences of malaria were significantly associated with temperature, rainfall, relative humidity, and the multivariate El NiƱo/Southern Oscillation index with lags of 0-2 months in all three regions. The PDL model revealed that only rainfall with a 1-2 month lag was significantly associated with malaria incidence in all three regions. The model validation showed a high accuracy for the prediction of monthly incidence over a 2-year predictive period. Malaria epidemics showed a high spatial heterogeneity in Anhui Province during the 1990-2009 study periods. The change in rainfall drives the reemergence of malaria in the northern Anhui Province.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D008288 Malaria A protozoan disease caused in humans by four species of the PLASMODIUM genus: PLASMODIUM FALCIPARUM; PLASMODIUM VIVAX; PLASMODIUM OVALE; and PLASMODIUM MALARIAE; and transmitted by the bite of an infected female mosquito of the genus ANOPHELES. Malaria is endemic in parts of Asia, Africa, Central and South America, Oceania, and certain Caribbean islands. It is characterized by extreme exhaustion associated with paroxysms of high FEVER; SWEATING; shaking CHILLS; and ANEMIA. Malaria in ANIMALS is caused by other species of plasmodia. Marsh Fever,Plasmodium Infections,Remittent Fever,Infections, Plasmodium,Paludism,Fever, Marsh,Fever, Remittent,Infection, Plasmodium,Plasmodium Infection
D011891 Rain Water particles that fall from the ATMOSPHERE. Rains
D002681 China A country spanning from central Asia to the Pacific Ocean. Inner Mongolia,Manchuria,People's Republic of China,Sinkiang,Mainland China
D006801 Humans Members of the species Homo sapiens. Homo sapiens,Man (Taxonomy),Human,Man, Modern,Modern Man
D015233 Models, Statistical Statistical formulations or analyses which, when applied to data and found to fit the data, are then used to verify the assumptions and parameters used in the analysis. Examples of statistical models are the linear model, binomial model, polynomial model, two-parameter model, etc. Probabilistic Models,Statistical Models,Two-Parameter Models,Model, Statistical,Models, Binomial,Models, Polynomial,Statistical Model,Binomial Model,Binomial Models,Model, Binomial,Model, Polynomial,Model, Probabilistic,Model, Two-Parameter,Models, Probabilistic,Models, Two-Parameter,Polynomial Model,Polynomial Models,Probabilistic Model,Two Parameter Models,Two-Parameter Model
D062211 Spatio-Temporal Analysis Techniques which study entities using their topological, geometric, or geographic properties and include the dimension of time in the analysis. Space-Time Geography,Spatial Temporal Analysis,Spatiotemporal Analysis,Analyses, Spatial Temporal,Analyses, Spatio-Temporal,Analyses, Spatiotemporal,Analysis, Spatial Temporal,Analysis, Spatio-Temporal,Analysis, Spatiotemporal,Geographies, Space-Time,Geography, Space-Time,Space Time Geography,Space-Time Geographies,Spatial Temporal Analyses,Spatio Temporal Analysis,Spatio-Temporal Analyses,Spatiotemporal Analyses,Temporal Analyses, Spatial,Temporal Analysis, Spatial
D062665 Epidemiological Monitoring Collection, analysis, and interpretation of data about the frequency, distribution, and consequences of disease or health conditions, for use in the planning, implementing, and evaluating public health programs. Epidemiologic Monitoring,Epidemiologic Surveillance,Monitoring, Epidemiologic,Epidemiologic Surveillances,Monitoring, Epidemiological,Surveillance, Epidemiologic,Surveillances, Epidemiologic

Related Publications

Hong-Wei Gao, and Li-Ping Wang, and Song Liang, and Yong-Xiao Liu, and Shi-Lu Tong, and Jian-Jun Wang, and Ya-Pin Li, and Xiao-Feng Wang, and Hong Yang, and Jia-Qi Ma, and Li-Qun Fang, and Wu-Chun Cao
March 2023, Infectious Disease Modelling,
Hong-Wei Gao, and Li-Ping Wang, and Song Liang, and Yong-Xiao Liu, and Shi-Lu Tong, and Jian-Jun Wang, and Ya-Pin Li, and Xiao-Feng Wang, and Hong Yang, and Jia-Qi Ma, and Li-Qun Fang, and Wu-Chun Cao
October 2008, Malaria journal,
Hong-Wei Gao, and Li-Ping Wang, and Song Liang, and Yong-Xiao Liu, and Shi-Lu Tong, and Jian-Jun Wang, and Ya-Pin Li, and Xiao-Feng Wang, and Hong Yang, and Jia-Qi Ma, and Li-Qun Fang, and Wu-Chun Cao
September 2019, Acta tropica,
Hong-Wei Gao, and Li-Ping Wang, and Song Liang, and Yong-Xiao Liu, and Shi-Lu Tong, and Jian-Jun Wang, and Ya-Pin Li, and Xiao-Feng Wang, and Hong Yang, and Jia-Qi Ma, and Li-Qun Fang, and Wu-Chun Cao
January 2020, The American journal of tropical medicine and hygiene,
Hong-Wei Gao, and Li-Ping Wang, and Song Liang, and Yong-Xiao Liu, and Shi-Lu Tong, and Jian-Jun Wang, and Ya-Pin Li, and Xiao-Feng Wang, and Hong Yang, and Jia-Qi Ma, and Li-Qun Fang, and Wu-Chun Cao
October 2014, PLoS neglected tropical diseases,
Hong-Wei Gao, and Li-Ping Wang, and Song Liang, and Yong-Xiao Liu, and Shi-Lu Tong, and Jian-Jun Wang, and Ya-Pin Li, and Xiao-Feng Wang, and Hong Yang, and Jia-Qi Ma, and Li-Qun Fang, and Wu-Chun Cao
January 2019, Veterinary world,
Hong-Wei Gao, and Li-Ping Wang, and Song Liang, and Yong-Xiao Liu, and Shi-Lu Tong, and Jian-Jun Wang, and Ya-Pin Li, and Xiao-Feng Wang, and Hong Yang, and Jia-Qi Ma, and Li-Qun Fang, and Wu-Chun Cao
April 2002, World journal of gastroenterology,
Hong-Wei Gao, and Li-Ping Wang, and Song Liang, and Yong-Xiao Liu, and Shi-Lu Tong, and Jian-Jun Wang, and Ya-Pin Li, and Xiao-Feng Wang, and Hong Yang, and Jia-Qi Ma, and Li-Qun Fang, and Wu-Chun Cao
January 2022, Advances in parasitology,
Hong-Wei Gao, and Li-Ping Wang, and Song Liang, and Yong-Xiao Liu, and Shi-Lu Tong, and Jian-Jun Wang, and Ya-Pin Li, and Xiao-Feng Wang, and Hong Yang, and Jia-Qi Ma, and Li-Qun Fang, and Wu-Chun Cao
July 2022, China CDC weekly,
Hong-Wei Gao, and Li-Ping Wang, and Song Liang, and Yong-Xiao Liu, and Shi-Lu Tong, and Jian-Jun Wang, and Ya-Pin Li, and Xiao-Feng Wang, and Hong Yang, and Jia-Qi Ma, and Li-Qun Fang, and Wu-Chun Cao
January 1996, The Indian journal of medical research,
Copied contents to your clipboard!