Biomaterial Database

A risk scoring system to identify emergency department patients with heart failure at high risk for serious adverse events. 2013

Ian G Stiell, and Catherine M Clement, and Robert J Brison, and Brian H Rowe, and Bjug Borgundvaag, and Shawn D Aaron, and Eddy Lang, and Lisa A Calder, and Jeffrey J Perry, and Alan J Forster, and George A Wells

Department of Emergency Medicine, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada. istiell@ohri.ca

OBJECTIVE There are no validated guidelines to guide physicians with difficult disposition decisions for emergency department (ED) patients with heart failure (HF). The authors sought to develop a risk scoring system to identify HF patients at high risk for serious adverse events (SAEs). METHODS This was a prospective cohort study at six large Canadian EDS that enrolled adult patients who presented with acute decompensated HF. Each patient was assessed for standardized clinical and laboratory variables as well as for SAEs defined as death, intubation, admission to a monitored unit, or relapse requiring admission. Adjusted odds ratios for predictors of SAEs were calculated by stepwise logistic regression. RESULTS In 559 visits, 38.1% resulted in patient admission. Of 65 (11.6%) SAE cases, 31 (47.7%) occurred in patients not initially admitted. The multivariate model and resultant Ottawa Heart Failure Risk Scale consists of 10 elements, and the risk of SAEs varied from 2.8% to 89.0%, with good calibration between observed and expected probabilities. Internal validation showed the risk scores to be very accurate across 1,000 replications using the bootstrap method. A threshold of 1, 2, or 3 total scores for admission would be associated with sensitivities of 95.2, 80.6, or 64.5%, respectively, all better than current practice. CONCLUSIONS Many HF patients are discharged home from the ED and then suffer SAEs or death. The authors have developed an accurate risk scoring system that could ultimately be used to stratify the risk of poor outcomes and to enable rational and safe disposition decisions.

UI	MeSH Term	Description	Entries
D008297	Male		Males
D010343	Patient Admission	The process of accepting patients. The concept includes patients accepted for medical and nursing care in a hospital or other health care institution.	Voluntary Admission,Admission, Patient,Admission, Voluntary,Admissions, Patient,Admissions, Voluntary,Patient Admissions,Voluntary Admissions
D010351	Patient Discharge	The administrative process of discharging the patient, alive or dead, from hospitals or other health facilities.	Discharge Planning,Discharge Plannings,Discharge, Patient,Discharges, Patient,Patient Discharges,Planning, Discharge,Plannings, Discharge
D002423	Cause of Death	Factors which produce cessation of all vital bodily functions. They can be analyzed from an epidemiologic viewpoint.	Causes of Death,Death Cause,Death Causes
D004635	Emergency Medicine	The branch of medicine concerned with the evaluation and initial treatment of urgent and emergent medical problems, such as those caused by accidents, trauma, sudden illness, poisoning, or disasters. Emergency medical care can be provided at the hospital or at sites outside the medical facility.	Medicine, Emergency
D004636	Emergency Service, Hospital	Hospital department responsible for the administration and provision of immediate medical or surgical care to the emergency patient.	Emergency Outpatient Unit,Emergency Services Utilization,Hospital Emergency Room,Hospital Emergency Service,Hospital Emergency Services Utilization,Accident and Emergency Department,Emergency Departments,Emergency Hospital Service,Emergency Room,Emergency Units,Emergency Ward,Hospital Service Emergency,Service, Hospital Emergency,Department, Emergency,Departments, Emergency,Emergencies, Hospital Service,Emergency Department,Emergency Hospital Services,Emergency Outpatient Units,Emergency Room, Hospital,Emergency Rooms,Emergency Rooms, Hospital,Emergency Services, Hospital,Emergency Unit,Emergency Wards,Emergency, Hospital Service,Hospital Emergency Rooms,Hospital Emergency Services,Hospital Service Emergencies,Hospital Service, Emergency,Hospital Services, Emergency,Outpatient Unit, Emergency,Outpatient Units, Emergency,Room, Emergency,Room, Hospital Emergency,Rooms, Emergency,Rooms, Hospital Emergency,Service Emergencies, Hospital,Service Emergency, Hospital,Service, Emergency Hospital,Services Utilization, Emergency,Services Utilizations, Emergency,Services, Emergency Hospital,Services, Hospital Emergency,Unit, Emergency,Unit, Emergency Outpatient,Units, Emergency,Units, Emergency Outpatient,Utilization, Emergency Services,Ward, Emergency,Wards, Emergency
D004638	Emergency Treatment	First aid or other immediate intervention for accidents or medical conditions requiring immediate care and treatment before definitive medical and surgical management can be procured.	Emergency Therapy,Therapy, Emergency,Emergency Therapies,Emergency Treatments,Therapies, Emergency,Treatment, Emergency,Treatments, Emergency
D005260	Female		Females
D006333	Heart Failure	A heterogeneous condition in which the heart is unable to pump out sufficient blood to meet the metabolic need of the body. Heart failure can be caused by structural defects, functional abnormalities (VENTRICULAR DYSFUNCTION), or a sudden overload beyond its capacity. Chronic heart failure is more common than acute heart failure which results from sudden insult to cardiac function, such as MYOCARDIAL INFARCTION.	Cardiac Failure,Heart Decompensation,Congestive Heart Failure,Heart Failure, Congestive,Heart Failure, Left-Sided,Heart Failure, Right-Sided,Left-Sided Heart Failure,Myocardial Failure,Right-Sided Heart Failure,Decompensation, Heart,Heart Failure, Left Sided,Heart Failure, Right Sided,Left Sided Heart Failure,Right Sided Heart Failure
D006801	Humans	Members of the species Homo sapiens.	Homo sapiens,Man (Taxonomy),Human,Man, Modern,Modern Man