Estimating mosquito population size from mark-release-recapture data. 2013

D Cianci, and J Van den Broek, and B Caputo, and F Marini, and A Della Torre, and H Heesterbeek, and N Hartemink
Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Utrecht University, The Netherlands. d.cianci@uu.nl

Accurate estimation of population size is key to understanding the ecology of disease vectors, as well as the epidemiology of the pathogens they carry and to plan effective control activities. Population size can be estimated through mark-release-recapture (MRR) experiments that are based on the assumption that the ratio of recaptured individuals to the total captures approximates the ratio of marked individuals released to the total population. However, methods to obtain population size estimates usually consider pooled data and are often based on the total number of marked and unmarked captures. We here present a logistic regression model, based on the principle of the well-known Fisher-Ford method, specific for MRR experiments where the information available is the number of marked mosquitoes released, the number of marked and unmarked mosquitoes caught in each trap and on each day, and the geographic coordinates of the traps. The model estimates population size, taking into consideration the distance between release points and traps, the time between release and recapture, and the loss of marked mosquitoes to death or dispersal. The performance and accuracy of the logistic regression model has been assessed using simulated data from known population sizes. We then applied the model to data from MRR experiments with Aedes albopictus Skuse performed on the campus of "Sapienza" University in Rome (Italy).

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D011156 Population Density Number of individuals in a population relative to space. Overpopulation,Population Size,Underpopulation,Densities, Population,Density, Population,Population Densities,Population Sizes
D004199 Disease Vectors Invertebrates or non-human vertebrates which transmit infective organisms from one host to another. Infectious Disease Vectors,Disease Vector,Disease Vector, Infectious,Disease Vectors, Infectious,Infectious Disease Vector,Vector, Disease,Vector, Infectious Disease,Vectors, Disease,Vectors, Infectious Disease
D004463 Ecology The branch of science concerned with the interrelationship of organisms and their ENVIRONMENT, especially as manifested by natural cycles and rhythms, community development and structure, interactions between different kinds of organisms, geographic distributions, and population alterations. (Webster's, 3d ed) Bionomics,Ecologies
D004772 Entomology A discipline or occupation concerned with the study of INSECTS, including the biology and the control of insects.
D005260 Female Females
D000330 Aedes A genus of mosquitoes (CULICIDAE) frequently found in tropical and subtropical regions. YELLOW FEVER and DENGUE are two of the diseases that can be transmitted by species of this genus. Aede
D000818 Animals Unicellular or multicellular, heterotrophic organisms, that have sensation and the power of voluntary movement. Under the older five kingdom paradigm, Animalia was one of the kingdoms. Under the modern three domain model, Animalia represents one of the many groups in the domain EUKARYOTA. Animal,Metazoa,Animalia
D012384 Rome The capital city of Italy.
D016015 Logistic Models Statistical models which describe the relationship between a qualitative dependent variable (that is, one which can take only certain discrete values, such as the presence or absence of a disease) and an independent variable. A common application is in epidemiology for estimating an individual's risk (probability of a disease) as a function of a given risk factor. Logistic Regression,Logit Models,Models, Logistic,Logistic Model,Logistic Regressions,Logit Model,Model, Logistic,Model, Logit,Models, Logit,Regression, Logistic,Regressions, Logistic

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