Imputation method for lifetime exposure assessment in air pollution epidemiologic studies. 2013

Jan Beyea, and Steven D Stellman, and Susan Teitelbaum, and Irina Mordukhovich, and Marilie D Gammon
Consulting in the Public Interest (CIPI), Lambertville, NJ, USA. jbeyea@cipi.com

BACKGROUND Environmental epidemiology, when focused on the life course of exposure to a specific pollutant, requires historical exposure estimates that are difficult to obtain for the full time period due to gaps in the historical record, especially in earlier years. We show that these gaps can be filled by applying multiple imputation methods to a formal risk equation that incorporates lifetime exposure. We also address challenges that arise, including choice of imputation method, potential bias in regression coefficients, and uncertainty in age-at-exposure sensitivities. METHODS During time periods when parameters needed in the risk equation are missing for an individual, the parameters are filled by an imputation model using group level information or interpolation. A random component is added to match the variance found in the estimates for study subjects not needing imputation. The process is repeated to obtain multiple data sets, whose regressions against health data can be combined statistically to develop confidence limits using Rubin's rules to account for the uncertainty introduced by the imputations. To test for possible recall bias between cases and controls, which can occur when historical residence location is obtained by interview, and which can lead to misclassification of imputed exposure by disease status, we introduce an "incompleteness index," equal to the percentage of dose imputed (PDI) for a subject. "Effective doses" can be computed using different functional dependencies of relative risk on age of exposure, allowing intercomparison of different risk models. To illustrate our approach, we quantify lifetime exposure (dose) from traffic air pollution in an established case-control study on Long Island, New York, where considerable in-migration occurred over a period of many decades. RESULTS The major result is the described approach to imputation. The illustrative example revealed potential recall bias, suggesting that regressions against health data should be done as a function of PDI to check for consistency of results. The 1% of study subjects who lived for long durations near heavily trafficked intersections, had very high cumulative exposures. Thus, imputation methods must be designed to reproduce non-standard distributions. CONCLUSIONS Our approach meets a number of methodological challenges to extending historical exposure reconstruction over a lifetime and shows promise for environmental epidemiology. Application to assessment of breast cancer risks will be reported in a subsequent manuscript.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D008875 Middle Aged An adult aged 45 - 64 years. Middle Age
D008962 Models, Theoretical Theoretical representations that simulate the behavior or activity of systems, processes, or phenomena. They include the use of mathematical equations, computers, and other electronic equipment. Experimental Model,Experimental Models,Mathematical Model,Model, Experimental,Models (Theoretical),Models, Experimental,Models, Theoretic,Theoretical Study,Mathematical Models,Model (Theoretical),Model, Mathematical,Model, Theoretical,Models, Mathematical,Studies, Theoretical,Study, Theoretical,Theoretical Model,Theoretical Models,Theoretical Studies
D009518 New York State bounded on the north by Lake Ontario and Canada, on the east by Vermont, Massachusetts, and Connecticut, on the south by the Atlantic Ocean, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania, and on the west by Pennsylvania, Lake Erie, and Canada.
D001943 Breast Neoplasms Tumors or cancer of the human BREAST. Breast Cancer,Breast Tumors,Cancer of Breast,Breast Carcinoma,Cancer of the Breast,Human Mammary Carcinoma,Malignant Neoplasm of Breast,Malignant Tumor of Breast,Mammary Cancer,Mammary Carcinoma, Human,Mammary Neoplasm, Human,Mammary Neoplasms, Human,Neoplasms, Breast,Tumors, Breast,Breast Carcinomas,Breast Malignant Neoplasm,Breast Malignant Neoplasms,Breast Malignant Tumor,Breast Malignant Tumors,Breast Neoplasm,Breast Tumor,Cancer, Breast,Cancer, Mammary,Cancers, Mammary,Carcinoma, Breast,Carcinoma, Human Mammary,Carcinomas, Breast,Carcinomas, Human Mammary,Human Mammary Carcinomas,Human Mammary Neoplasm,Human Mammary Neoplasms,Mammary Cancers,Mammary Carcinomas, Human,Neoplasm, Breast,Neoplasm, Human Mammary,Neoplasms, Human Mammary,Tumor, Breast
D005260 Female Females
D006801 Humans Members of the species Homo sapiens. Homo sapiens,Man (Taxonomy),Human,Man, Modern,Modern Man
D000368 Aged A person 65 years of age or older. For a person older than 79 years, AGED, 80 AND OVER is available. Elderly
D000393 Air Pollutants Any substance in the air which could, if present in high enough concentration, harm humans, animals, vegetation or materials. Substances include GASES; PARTICULATE MATTER; and volatile ORGANIC CHEMICALS. Air Pollutant,Air Pollutants, Environmental,Environmental Air Pollutants,Environmental Pollutants, Air,Air Environmental Pollutants,Pollutant, Air,Pollutants, Air,Pollutants, Air Environmental,Pollutants, Environmental Air
D013997 Time Factors Elements of limited time intervals, contributing to particular results or situations. Time Series,Factor, Time,Time Factor
D016022 Case-Control Studies Comparisons that start with the identification of persons with the disease or outcome of interest and a control (comparison, referent) group without the disease or outcome of interest. The relationship of an attribute is examined by comparing both groups with regard to the frequency or levels of outcome over time. Case-Base Studies,Case-Comparison Studies,Case-Referent Studies,Matched Case-Control Studies,Nested Case-Control Studies,Case Control Studies,Case-Compeer Studies,Case-Referrent Studies,Case Base Studies,Case Comparison Studies,Case Control Study,Case Referent Studies,Case Referrent Studies,Case-Comparison Study,Case-Control Studies, Matched,Case-Control Studies, Nested,Case-Control Study,Case-Control Study, Matched,Case-Control Study, Nested,Case-Referent Study,Case-Referrent Study,Matched Case Control Studies,Matched Case-Control Study,Nested Case Control Studies,Nested Case-Control Study,Studies, Case Control,Studies, Case-Base,Studies, Case-Comparison,Studies, Case-Compeer,Studies, Case-Control,Studies, Case-Referent,Studies, Case-Referrent,Studies, Matched Case-Control,Studies, Nested Case-Control,Study, Case Control,Study, Case-Comparison,Study, Case-Control,Study, Case-Referent,Study, Case-Referrent,Study, Matched Case-Control,Study, Nested Case-Control

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