Biomaterial Database

A dynamic population model for estimating all-cause mortality due to lifetime exposure history. 2013

Annette M Bachand, and Sandra I Sulsky

Environ International Corporation, United States; Colorado State University, United States.

We developed a comprehensive, flexible dynamic model that estimates all-cause mortality for a hypothetical cohort. All model input is user-specified. In the base case, members of the cohort may be exposed to a high risk product as they age. The counterfactual scenario includes exposure to both a high risk and a lower risk product. The model sorts the population into age and exposure categories, and applies the appropriate mortality rates to each category. The model tracks individual exposure histories, and estimates, at the end of each modeled age category, the number of survivors in the two exposure scenarios (base case and counterfactual), and the difference between them. Markov Chain Monte Carlo techniques are used to estimate the variability of the results. Model output was compared against US and Swedish life tables using population-specific tobacco exposure transition probabilities derived from the literature, and it produced similar survival estimates.

UI	MeSH Term	Description	Entries
D008390	Markov Chains	A stochastic process such that the conditional probability distribution for a state at any future instant, given the present state, is unaffected by any additional knowledge of the past history of the system.	Markov Process,Markov Chain,Chain, Markov,Chains, Markov,Markov Processes,Process, Markov,Processes, Markov
D008962	Models, Theoretical	Theoretical representations that simulate the behavior or activity of systems, processes, or phenomena. They include the use of mathematical equations, computers, and other electronic equipment.	Experimental Model,Experimental Models,Mathematical Model,Model, Experimental,Models (Theoretical),Models, Experimental,Models, Theoretic,Theoretical Study,Mathematical Models,Model (Theoretical),Model, Mathematical,Model, Theoretical,Models, Mathematical,Studies, Theoretical,Study, Theoretical,Theoretical Model,Theoretical Models,Theoretical Studies
D009010	Monte Carlo Method	In statistics, a technique for numerically approximating the solution of a mathematical problem by studying the distribution of some random variable, often generated by a computer. The name alludes to the randomness characteristic of the games of chance played at the gambling casinos in Monte Carlo. (From Random House Unabridged Dictionary, 2d ed, 1993)	Method, Monte Carlo
D002423	Cause of Death	Factors which produce cessation of all vital bodily functions. They can be analyzed from an epidemiologic viewpoint.	Causes of Death,Death Cause,Death Causes
D006801	Humans	Members of the species Homo sapiens.	Homo sapiens,Man (Taxonomy),Human,Man, Modern,Modern Man
D012907	Smoking	Willful or deliberate act of inhaling and exhaling SMOKE from burning substances or agents held by hand.	Smoking Behaviors,Smoking Habit,Behavior, Smoking,Behaviors, Smoking,Habit, Smoking,Habits, Smoking,Smoking Behavior,Smoking Habits
D013548	Sweden	Country in northern Europe, bordering the Baltic Sea, between Finland and Norway. The capital is Stockholm.
D014481	United States	A country in NORTH AMERICA between CANADA and MEXICO.
D015203	Reproducibility of Results	The statistical reproducibility of measurements (often in a clinical context), including the testing of instrumentation or techniques to obtain reproducible results. The concept includes reproducibility of physiological measurements, which may be used to develop rules to assess probability or prognosis, or response to a stimulus; reproducibility of occurrence of a condition; and reproducibility of experimental results.	Reliability and Validity,Reliability of Result,Reproducibility Of Result,Reproducibility of Finding,Validity of Result,Validity of Results,Face Validity,Reliability (Epidemiology),Reliability of Results,Reproducibility of Findings,Test-Retest Reliability,Validity (Epidemiology),Finding Reproducibilities,Finding Reproducibility,Of Result, Reproducibility,Of Results, Reproducibility,Reliabilities, Test-Retest,Reliability, Test-Retest,Result Reliabilities,Result Reliability,Result Validities,Result Validity,Result, Reproducibility Of,Results, Reproducibility Of,Test Retest Reliability,Validity and Reliability,Validity, Face
D015993	Life Tables	Summarizing techniques used to describe the pattern of mortality and survival in populations. These methods can be applied to the study not only of death, but also of any defined endpoint such as the onset of disease or the occurrence of disease complications.	Life Table Analysis,Life Table Methods,Life Table Models,Life Table Estimates,Life Table Method,Analyses, Life Table,Analysis, Life Table,Estimate, Life Table,Estimates, Life Table,Life Table,Life Table Analyses,Life Table Estimate,Life Table Model,Method, Life Table,Methods, Life Table,Model, Life Table,Models, Life Table,Tables, Life