Bridging the gap between science and decision making. 2013

Detlof von Winterfeldt
Daniel J Epstein Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering, Viterbi School of Engineering and Sol Price School of Public Policy, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA 90089, USA. detlof@aol.com

All decisions, whether they are personal, public, or business-related, are based on the decision maker's beliefs and values. Science can and should help decision makers by shaping their beliefs. Unfortunately, science is not easily accessible to decision makers, and scientists often do not understand decision makers' information needs. This article presents a framework for bridging the gap between science and decision making and illustrates it with two examples. The first example is a personal health decision. It shows how a formal representation of the beliefs and values can reflect scientific inputs by a physician to combine with the values held by the decision maker to inform a medical choice. The second example is a public policy decision about managing a potential environmental hazard. It illustrates how controversial beliefs can be reflected as uncertainties and informed by science to make better decisions. Both examples use decision analysis to bridge science and decisions. The conclusions suggest that this can be a helpful process that requires skills in both science and decision making.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D002755 Choice Behavior The act of making a selection among two or more alternatives, usually after a period of deliberation. Approach Behavior,Approach Behaviors,Behavior, Approach,Behavior, Choice,Behaviors, Approach,Behaviors, Choice,Choice Behaviors
D003142 Communication The exchange or transmission of ideas, attitudes, or beliefs between individuals or groups. Miscommunication,Misinformation,Social Communication,Communication Programs,Communications Personnel,Personal Communication,Communication Program,Communication, Personal,Communication, Social,Communications, Social,Miscommunications,Misinformations,Personnel, Communications,Program, Communication,Programs, Communication,Social Communications
D003657 Decision Making The process of making a selective intellectual judgment when presented with several complex alternatives consisting of several variables, and usually defining a course of action or an idea. Credit Assignment,Assignment, Credit,Assignments, Credit,Credit Assignments
D006801 Humans Members of the species Homo sapiens. Homo sapiens,Man (Taxonomy),Human,Man, Modern,Modern Man
D012586 Science The study of natural phenomena by observation, measurement, and experimentation. Sciences
D033181 Information Dissemination The circulation or wide dispersal of information. Data Sharing,Information Distribution,Information Sharing,Data Sharings,Dissemination, Information,Distribution, Information,Information Sharings,Sharing, Data,Sharing, Information,Sharings, Data,Sharings, Information

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