Biomaterial Database

The dynamics of HIV spread: a computer simulation model. 1990

W D Leslie, and R C Brunham

Department of Internal Medicine, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Canada.

Mathematical modeling of the AIDS pandemic has been limited by the difficulty of satisfactorily representing the marked behavioral heterogeneity that characterizes the various populations at risk. We propose an approach which models the spread of infection as a discrete-event simulation using SIMSCRIPT, a powerful simulation language. The program developed provides sufficient flexibility to adequately represent and study a wide range of risk-group dynamics. Using this tool we have verified the May-Anderson prediction relating contact rate heterogeneity to the rate of HIV spread. We have also been able to assess the sensitivity of the model to the particular choice of distribution for contact rates, disease stage durations, and intercontact intervals. It is thought that this approach will permit the empirical testing of hypotheses which do not lend themselves to a purely mathematical treatment.

UI	MeSH Term	Description	Entries
D008954	Models, Biological	Theoretical representations that simulate the behavior or activity of biological processes or diseases. For disease models in living animals, DISEASE MODELS, ANIMAL is available. Biological models include the use of mathematical equations, computers, and other electronic equipment.	Biological Model,Biological Models,Model, Biological,Models, Biologic,Biologic Model,Biologic Models,Model, Biologic
D011157	Population Dynamics	The pattern of any process, or the interrelationship of phenomena, which affects growth or change within a population.	Malthusianism,Neomalthusianism,Demographic Aging,Demographic Transition,Optimum Population,Population Decrease,Population Pressure,Population Replacement,Population Theory,Residential Mobility,Rural-Urban Migration,Stable Population,Stationary Population,Aging, Demographic,Decrease, Population,Decreases, Population,Demographic Transitions,Dynamics, Population,Migration, Rural-Urban,Migrations, Rural-Urban,Mobilities, Residential,Mobility, Residential,Optimum Populations,Population Decreases,Population Pressures,Population Replacements,Population Theories,Population, Optimum,Population, Stable,Population, Stationary,Populations, Optimum,Populations, Stable,Populations, Stationary,Pressure, Population,Pressures, Population,Replacement, Population,Replacements, Population,Residential Mobilities,Rural Urban Migration,Rural-Urban Migrations,Stable Populations,Stationary Populations,Theories, Population,Theory, Population,Transition, Demographic,Transitions, Demographic
D011381	Programming Languages	Specific languages used to prepare computer programs.	Language, Programming,Languages, Programming,Programming Language
D003198	Computer Simulation	Computer-based representation of physical systems and phenomena such as chemical processes.	Computational Modeling,Computational Modelling,Computer Models,In silico Modeling,In silico Models,In silico Simulation,Models, Computer,Computerized Models,Computer Model,Computer Simulations,Computerized Model,In silico Model,Model, Computer,Model, Computerized,Model, In silico,Modeling, Computational,Modeling, In silico,Modelling, Computational,Simulation, Computer,Simulation, In silico,Simulations, Computer
D004196	Disease Outbreaks	Sudden increase in the incidence of a disease. The concept includes EPIDEMICS and PANDEMICS.	Outbreaks,Infectious Disease Outbreaks,Disease Outbreak,Disease Outbreak, Infectious,Disease Outbreaks, Infectious,Infectious Disease Outbreak,Outbreak, Disease,Outbreak, Infectious Disease,Outbreaks, Disease,Outbreaks, Infectious Disease
D006801	Humans	Members of the species Homo sapiens.	Homo sapiens,Man (Taxonomy),Human,Man, Modern,Modern Man
D000163	Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome	An acquired defect of cellular immunity associated with infection by the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), a CD4-positive T-lymphocyte count under 200 cells/microliter or less than 14% of total lymphocytes, and increased susceptibility to opportunistic infections and malignant neoplasms. Clinical manifestations also include emaciation (wasting) and dementia. These elements reflect criteria for AIDS as defined by the CDC in 1993.	AIDS,Immunodeficiency Syndrome, Acquired,Immunologic Deficiency Syndrome, Acquired,Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome,Acquired Immuno-Deficiency Syndrome,Acquired Immuno Deficiency Syndrome,Acquired Immuno-Deficiency Syndromes,Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndromes,Immuno-Deficiency Syndrome, Acquired,Immuno-Deficiency Syndromes, Acquired,Immunodeficiency Syndromes, Acquired,Syndrome, Acquired Immuno-Deficiency,Syndrome, Acquired Immunodeficiency,Syndromes, Acquired Immuno-Deficiency,Syndromes, Acquired Immunodeficiency
D015994	Incidence	The number of new cases of a given disease during a given period in a specified population. It also is used for the rate at which new events occur in a defined population. It is differentiated from PREVALENCE, which refers to all cases in the population at a given time.	Attack Rate,Cumulative Incidence,Incidence Proportion,Incidence Rate,Person-time Rate,Secondary Attack Rate,Attack Rate, Secondary,Attack Rates,Cumulative Incidences,Incidence Proportions,Incidence Rates,Incidence, Cumulative,Incidences,Person time Rate,Person-time Rates,Proportion, Incidence,Rate, Attack,Rate, Incidence,Rate, Person-time,Rate, Secondary Attack,Secondary Attack Rates