Cost-effectiveness of the 21-gene assay for guiding adjuvant chemotherapy decisions in early breast cancer. 2013

Mike Paulden, and Jacob Franek, and Ba' Pham, and Philippe L Bedard, and Maureen Trudeau, and Murray Krahn
Toronto Health Economics and Technology Assessment (THETA) Collaborative, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada. mike.paulden@theta.utoronto.ca

OBJECTIVE Adjuvant chemotherapy decisions in early breast cancer are complex. The 21-gene assay can potentially aid such decisions, but costs US $4175 per patient. Adjuvant! Online is a freely available decision aid. We evaluate the cost-effectiveness of using the 21-gene assay in conjunction with Adjuvant! Online, and of providing adjuvant chemotherapy conditional upon risk classification. METHODS A probabilistic Markov decision model simulated risk classification, treatment, and the natural history of breast cancer in a hypothetical cohort of 50-year-old women with lymph node-negative, estrogen receptor- and/or progesterone receptor-positive, human epidermal growth factor receptor 2/neu-negative early breast cancer. Cost-effectiveness was considered from an Ontario public-payer perspective by deriving the lifetime incremental cost (2012 Canadian dollars) per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) for each strategy, and the probability each strategy is cost-effective, assuming a willingness-to-pay of $50,000 per QALY. RESULTS The 21-gene assay has an incremental cost per QALY in patients at low, intermediate, or high Adjuvant Online! risk of $22,440 (probability cost-effective 78.46%), $2,526 (99.40%), or $1,111 (99.82%), respectively. In patients at low (high) 21-gene assay risk, adjuvant chemotherapy increases (reduces) costs and worsens (improves) health outcomes. For patients at intermediate 21-gene assay risk and low, intermediate, or high Adjuvant! Online risk, chemotherapy has an incremental cost per QALY of $44,088 (50.59%), $1,776 (77.65%), or $1,778 (82.31%), respectively. CONCLUSIONS The 21-gene assay appears cost-effective, regardless of Adjuvant! Online risk. Adjuvant chemotherapy appears cost-effective for patients at intermediate or high 21-gene assay risk, although this finding is uncertain in patients at intermediate 21-gene assay and low Adjuvant! Online risk.

UI MeSH Term Description Entries
D008390 Markov Chains A stochastic process such that the conditional probability distribution for a state at any future instant, given the present state, is unaffected by any additional knowledge of the past history of the system. Markov Process,Markov Chain,Chain, Markov,Chains, Markov,Markov Processes,Process, Markov,Processes, Markov
D008875 Middle Aged An adult aged 45 - 64 years. Middle Age
D001943 Breast Neoplasms Tumors or cancer of the human BREAST. Breast Cancer,Breast Tumors,Cancer of Breast,Breast Carcinoma,Cancer of the Breast,Human Mammary Carcinoma,Malignant Neoplasm of Breast,Malignant Tumor of Breast,Mammary Cancer,Mammary Carcinoma, Human,Mammary Neoplasm, Human,Mammary Neoplasms, Human,Neoplasms, Breast,Tumors, Breast,Breast Carcinomas,Breast Malignant Neoplasm,Breast Malignant Neoplasms,Breast Malignant Tumor,Breast Malignant Tumors,Breast Neoplasm,Breast Tumor,Cancer, Breast,Cancer, Mammary,Cancers, Mammary,Carcinoma, Breast,Carcinoma, Human Mammary,Carcinomas, Breast,Carcinomas, Human Mammary,Human Mammary Carcinomas,Human Mammary Neoplasm,Human Mammary Neoplasms,Mammary Cancers,Mammary Carcinomas, Human,Neoplasm, Breast,Neoplasm, Human Mammary,Neoplasms, Human Mammary,Tumor, Breast
D003362 Cost-Benefit Analysis A method of comparing the cost of a program with its expected benefits in dollars (or other currency). The benefit-to-cost ratio is a measure of total return expected per unit of money spent. This analysis generally excludes consideration of factors that are not measured ultimately in economic terms. In contrast a cost effectiveness in general compares cost with qualitative outcomes. Cost and Benefit,Cost-Benefit Data,Benefits and Costs,Cost Benefit,Cost Benefit Analysis,Cost-Utility Analysis,Costs and Benefits,Economic Evaluation,Marginal Analysis,Analyses, Cost Benefit,Analysis, Cost Benefit,Analysis, Cost-Benefit,Analysis, Cost-Utility,Analysis, Marginal,Benefit and Cost,Cost Benefit Analyses,Cost Benefit Data,Cost Utility Analysis,Cost-Benefit Analyses,Cost-Utility Analyses,Data, Cost-Benefit,Economic Evaluations,Evaluation, Economic,Marginal Analyses
D003661 Decision Support Techniques Mathematical or statistical procedures used as aids in making a decision. They are frequently used in medical decision-making. Decision Analysis,Decision Modeling,Models, Decision Support,Analysis, Decision,Decision Aids,Decision Support Technics,Aid, Decision,Aids, Decision,Analyses, Decision,Decision Aid,Decision Analyses,Decision Support Model,Decision Support Models,Decision Support Technic,Decision Support Technique,Model, Decision Support,Modeling, Decision,Technic, Decision Support,Technics, Decision Support,Technique, Decision Support,Techniques, Decision Support
D005260 Female Females
D006801 Humans Members of the species Homo sapiens. Homo sapiens,Man (Taxonomy),Human,Man, Modern,Modern Man
D000971 Antineoplastic Combined Chemotherapy Protocols The use of two or more chemicals simultaneously or sequentially in the drug therapy of neoplasms. The drugs need not be in the same dosage form. Anticancer Drug Combinations,Antineoplastic Agents, Combined,Antineoplastic Chemotherapy Protocols,Antineoplastic Drug Combinations,Cancer Chemotherapy Protocols,Chemotherapy Protocols, Antineoplastic,Drug Combinations, Antineoplastic,Antineoplastic Combined Chemotherapy Regimens,Combined Antineoplastic Agents,Agent, Combined Antineoplastic,Agents, Combined Antineoplastic,Anticancer Drug Combination,Antineoplastic Agent, Combined,Antineoplastic Chemotherapy Protocol,Antineoplastic Drug Combination,Cancer Chemotherapy Protocol,Chemotherapy Protocol, Antineoplastic,Chemotherapy Protocol, Cancer,Chemotherapy Protocols, Cancer,Combinations, Antineoplastic Drug,Combined Antineoplastic Agent,Drug Combination, Anticancer,Drug Combination, Antineoplastic,Drug Combinations, Anticancer,Protocol, Antineoplastic Chemotherapy,Protocol, Cancer Chemotherapy,Protocols, Antineoplastic Chemotherapy,Protocols, Cancer Chemotherapy
D017024 Chemotherapy, Adjuvant Drug therapy given to augment or stimulate some other form of treatment such as surgery or radiation therapy. Adjuvant chemotherapy is commonly used in the therapy of cancer and can be administered before or after the primary treatment. Adjuvant Chemotherapy,Drug Therapy, Adjuvant,Adjuvant Drug Therapy
D017410 Practice Guidelines as Topic Works about directions or principles presenting current or future rules of policy for assisting health care practitioners in patient care decisions regarding diagnosis, therapy, or related clinical circumstances. The guidelines may be developed by government agencies at any level, institutions, professional societies, governing boards, or by the convening of expert panels. The guidelines form a basis for the evaluation of all aspects of health care and delivery. Clinical Guidelines as Topic,Best Practices,Best Practice

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